nj2va Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: DC stayed roughly the same but everywhere else we saw a decrease. 00Z EPS was a little more aggressive with our WED storm so maybe you are seeing that as well? eta: At least from looking at Weatherbells 10:1 maps. Yeah, I deleted my post. I was comparing it to the 12z run from two days ago as I was toggling the runs on my phone. Clearly no coffee yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ummm. Yeah. I'l take my 40 inches and run please. Let's Just lock this one in right now. I mean no chance anything changes over the next 7 days right? In all seriousness. That progression reminds me of 2003 a little bit. And that was a bullseye out here. Second best storm of my life after 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looking at the 6Z GFS, I am in tears that this had to come about in March and not Jan or Feb. Tears! This would have been a HECS. Maybe we still score something, but where is our cold air source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: Euro actually starts storm at 120 hours. We will be in nam range by tuesday I know a week is a long lead... But it is a slow mover that gets it's act together about 4- 5 days from now. This one feels right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Looking at the 6Z GFS, I am in tears that this had to come about in March and not Jan or Feb. Tears! This would have been a HECS. Maybe we still score something, but where is our cold air source? Who has the stupid stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm shocked that Mdecoy would find a way to be miserable about the best model run since Jan 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Who has the stupid stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Who has the stupid stick! I have it. I’ve been hitting myself with it. But I think we’ve found another candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Who has the stupid stick! Its a legit question....... Not trying to be negative. It looks like the most amazing thing I've seen in a long time. I am just questioning the "ifs". Snowquester is still a recent memory and a valid concern IMO. I think that is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Nah this calls for us breaking out that special stupid stick only used on rare occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Its a legit question....... Not trying to be negative. It looks like the most amazing thing I've seen in a long time. I am just questioning the "ifs". Snowquester is still a recent memory and a valid concern IMO. I think that is fair. You don't need to try. Negative seems to be your natural state. You're like the Eeyore of this forum. Youre not wrong that the time of year will exact a price. If you get 10" it probably would have been 20" in Jan. We all know that. But I said the other day "the first person that complains about only getting 10" in March should be hit with the stupid stick". You realize your point wouldnt even matter. In 2016 you complained "it was only one storm". You're only happy in those rare white elk sighting type winters like 1996, 2003, @2010 when we get an HECS and multiple significant snows. The other 90% of the time your going to be complaining. Youre like JI without any of his knowledge or redeeming qualities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You don't need to try. Negative seems to be your natural state. You're like the Eeyore of this forum. Youre not wrong that the time of year will exact a price. If you get 10" it probably would have been 20" in Jan. We all know that. But I said the other day "the first person that complains about only getting 10" in March should be hit with the stupid stick". You realize your point wouldnt even matter. In 2016 you complained "it was only one storm". You're only happy in those rare white elk sighting type winters like 1996, 2003, @2010 when we get an HECS and multiple significant snows. The other 90% of the time your going to be complaining. Youre like JI without any of his knowledge or redeeming qualities My question and concern is legit. Wish you could have just replied to it instead of a whole thing/insults. I want to keep this thread on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looking at the 6Z GFS, I am in tears that this had to come about in March and not Jan or Feb. Tears! This would have been a HECS. Maybe we still score something, but where is our cold air source?Isnt widespread 1-2' in March still historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I am in awe at what I just read with agreement between GFS and Euro at this lead. Epic runs. Just sick. And people are still complaining because it is not January... Like we can't get huge storms in March for some reason. Just Push yo' chips into the middle and let it ride without complaining. This is our last shot before you are drinking martinis on the deck in shorts soaking in a perfect tan with SPF 1000 lathered onto your make believe six packs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 45 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Looking at the 6Z GFS, I am in tears that this had to come about in March and not Jan or Feb. Tears! This would have been a HECS. Maybe we still score something, but where is our cold air source? Isnt widespread 1-2' in March still historic? Without question. But I think extreme caution is needed on that idea. Which again, is why I had a question...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Without question. But I think extreme caution is needed on that idea. Which again, is why I had a question...... It looks plenty cold enough if the storm tracks south of us. The blocking has done its job and a trough digs into the east. Need heavy precip to overcome radiation and surface temps in march and need the storm to track south of us so it doesn't press the boundary to the north. But all guidance shows plenty of cold air to support a storm if those things come together. But you only threw that in at the end of your paragraph of you being you to fall back on something legitimate. You have every right to be a deb and act the heel. But then don't complain when you get called out as a deb and a heel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looks plenty cold enough if the storm tracks south of us. The blocking has done its job and a trough digs into the east. Need heavy precip to overcome radiation and surface temps in march and need the storm to track south of us so it doesn't press the boundary to the north. But all guidance shows plenty of cold air to support a storm if those things come together. But you only threw that in at the end of your paragraph of you being you to fall back on something legitimate. You have every right to be a deb and act the heel. But then don't complain when you get called out as a deb and a heel. Ok, thanks! A lot of people on here are saying negative stuff, like it could change next run, etc. I was just saying sucks this wasn't in Jan or Feb. Believe me even if we got 5 inches out of this, there wouldn't be no complaints here. Heck 3 inches....... I just think sometimes expectations need to be put in perspective. The runs are amazing. Amazing. No question. But sometimes some let an amazing suite get them too excited, and then sometimes comes the big letdown. Its happened to me soooo many times. Its happened to everyone. I am just trying to keep myself on an even keel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Without question. But I think extreme caution is needed on that idea. Which again, is why I had a question...... Dude - it's a week out. We all know extreme caution is needed. Just let people enjoy a nice model run at the end of a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ok, thanks! A lot of people on here are saying negative stuff, like it could change next run, etc. I was just saying sucks this wasn't in Jan or Feb. Believe me even if we got 5 inches out of this, there wouldn't be no complaints here. Heck 3 inches....... I just think sometimes expectations need to be put in perspective. The runs are amazing. Amazing. No question. But sometimes some let an amazing suite get them too excited, and then sometimes comes the big letdown. Its happened to me soooo many times. Its happened to everyone. I am just trying to keep myself on an even keel.Yeah, agreed about how runs could change. But your debbie downer tone came from you saying it sucks this isnt January and nowhere did I see any mention of this being one run and it could change like how you presented your defense. Anyway, the overall pattern looks really good and thats what we have for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I just think sometimes expectations need to be put in perspective. I don't think I've seen a single post with flawed perspective. We all know it's late season. We all know who has favorable and less favorable climo. We all know it's not going to be a cold smoke storm if it happens. We all know it's still in the long range. The expectations tone is right on from what I see. It seems to me like you're struggling with expectations not in YOUR perspective though. Think about that for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 In other words he was basically posting that at himself telling himself to manage his expectations out loud. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 This clearly looks to be the most promising shot we've had, and I like that it matches up with the teleconnections since it's at the end of a pattern change. Snow ratios and rain/snow line will obviously be a concern, but I'm not even going to get worried about that stuff this far out. Just glad both major models have the same general idea on the storm. I'd like to see this Tuesday/Wednesday storm clear the deck before looking too seriously into the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Well I'll be damned - the 500 maps are a thing of beauty!!! I don't know that you could draw up a GFS/EURO combination at this lead much better than this. Definitely has the feel of the typical blocked stemwinders that lock in early for our region. Looking forward to tracking this one til the end. It's a hail mary to save winter, and tracking these is so much fun... all typical caveats apply for a long lead storm, but it's nice to see one last run of winter excitement before the cherry blossoms are the primary topic of conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 30 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Ok, thanks! A lot of people on here are saying negative stuff, like it could change next run, etc. I was just saying sucks this wasn't in Jan or Feb. Believe me even if we got 5 inches out of this, there wouldn't be no complaints here. Heck 3 inches....... I just think sometimes expectations need to be put in perspective. The runs are amazing. Amazing. No question. But sometimes some let an amazing suite get them too excited, and then sometimes comes the big letdown. Its happened to me soooo many times. Its happened to everyone. I am just trying to keep myself on an even keel. We are all grateful to have you around to keep us in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 We've got both of the big operational models on board. I'm excited. The only thing I'd love to see is the GEFS + EPS get on board as well. Both have some decent hits but the operational model would be the best model even in each of the ensembles for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: We've got both of the big operational models on board. I'm excited. The only thing I'd love to see is the GEFS + EPS get on board as well. Both have some decent hits but the operational model would be the best model even in each of the ensembles for us. At this range they are going to have some spread...and that spread is going to hurt the mean a LOT. Plus add in the marginal temperature issue given the time of year and the lower resolution of the GEFS is going to struggle with that. "IF" this is the real deal we should start to see a steady uptick in the means soon as group think takes over. We are on the edge of that right now. Usually they enter that stage inside day 7. There are some massive hits on the ensembles. I saw a few EPS members last night that dropped the hammer. The GEFS members seem to be having temperature issues...a few absolute qpf bombs but only light accumulations...the lower resolution of those might be an issue there. Or they just think it will be warmer. But that is the kind of detail I will trust the higher res ops with and they all show enough cold to make this work IF...yea I know huge if...the storm comes together with enough amplitude and a good track. I am not too concerned with the ensembles yet. If they continue to show a lot of spread in another day or two I will be more worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: At this range they are going to have some spread...and that spread is going to hurt the mean a LOT. Plus add in the marginal temperature issue given the time of year and the lower resolution of the GEFS is going to struggle with that. "IF" this is the real deal we should start to see a steady uptick in the means soon as group think takes over. We are on the edge of that right now. Usually they enter that stage inside day 7. There are some massive hits on the ensembles. I saw a few EPS members last night that dropped the hammer. The GEFS members seem to be having temperature issues...a few absolute qpf bombs but only light accumulations...the lower resolution of those might be an issue there. Or they just think it will be warmer. But that is the kind of detail I will trust the higher res ops with and they all show enough cold to make this work IF...yea I know huge if...the storm comes together with enough amplitude and a good track. I am not too concerned with the ensembles yet. If they continue to show a lot of spread in another day or two I will be more worried. Well, the only reason I even bring it up, is that I've heard that people around here trust the ensembles long range and the operational models medium and short range. I've been looking at the members and yeah, the spread is pretty high with some shutouts and some knock outs. I think this is the first major storm I've been able to track since moving here that shows a direct hit to me only 7 days out. I may be a little off by that, but this is definitely the first one where the operational models all showed the same thing. I know for tropical, I always sort of treated the operational as the most likely scenario with the ensembles as the "spread"/"error cone". If I treated it the same way here, I feel pretty dang good about getting SOMETHING, and am just F5-ing weatherbell every time we get a new model drop to make sure the trends stay good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Hah... my only "complaint" about this is that it's still a week away and not < 3 days. What a great run. Maybe it's too early to worry about surface temps, but if we assume that they're correct and it's 34 at the height of the storm, wouldn't that be an issue? I know March 1958 had surface temps a few degrees above freezing, and there was a huge difference in totals based on elevation. Some parts of Baltimore city had 8" while other areas had 20"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Something I noticed going back through the last 5 days of GFS runs... this threat really did show up very early on. Something resembling this general outcome has been there on 90% of the runs from 5 days ago. Some cut. Some suppressed. But the idea of a major east coast amplification as the block breaks down was there every run. Another thing...and this speaks to how loaded the pattern is, this end result or something close too it came about even with vastly different timing and initial location of the northern stream vorts diving out of Canada. And in a few runs a storm still resulted even from a completely different vort. That is why the timing has changed. There was one run in particular where the vort that is being keyed on right now missed the boat and a completely different vort dove in next and bombed out anyways. This is why we see so many big storms from this general configuration of the NAO, 50/50, PNA, and EPO. It creates a window where we have so much wiggle room and aren't reliant on perfect timing of vorts. So many different players from run to run and they still end the same with an amped up storm along the east coast. It's also why we usually see these things at the end of patterns and big warm ups after. The EPO part (a trough just off the west coast up into Alaska) helps pump a PNA ridge where we want it across the Rockies and it opens a great window...but its also not sustainable because after a few days it floods the CONUS with pacific air and then we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Temp is one thing I worry a little less about for my neck of the woods. I'm learning my temps in Gaithersburg bust low all the time. But for DC, yeah, surface temps may end up mattering a little at the beginning... but with a bomb this big I can't imagine it shaving off more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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