Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 If you though the 12k NAM was off it's rocker, you might want to check out the 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Adjust the NAM another 30 miles southwest next run, lock it in, we all get 4-8" call it a win and go home happy. I just need about a 15 mile west adjustment and I would get 6" and be over the moon. Of course its all by itself and its the NAM so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So you’re saying there’s a chance? Ladies and gents, we’ve got NAM’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Adjust the NAM another 30 miles southwest next run, lock it in, we all get 4-8" call it a win and go home happy. I just need about a 15 mile west adjustment and I would get 6" and be over the moon. Of course its all by itself and its the NAM so... Not that I am defending the NAM but the Euro was pretty close to something as well. Think we are potentially closer then many of us realize. Of course watch it all go poof in the next 24 hours. eta: excuse me. I meant to say watch it all go poof in the next 3 hours after both the GFS and the Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, high risk said: 3 km NAM nest also wants to bring some snows to the metro area Friday afternoon. 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: If you though the 12k NAM was off it's rocker, you might want to check out the 3k NAM Holy crap yea... 7" at my house...I take and go into spring on a super high regardless of whatever else happens. Even gets some decent snows 2-4" down into the NW burbs of DC and Baltimore. The NAM's are probably off their rocker... BUT they have had their wins at times where they sniff out something first so MAYBE.... This is not a weenie statement here... IMO the 3k has been the better of the NAM's since the last upgrade and I have been relatively impressed with it. It's still prone to going off on wild tangents at range due to its resolution and convection issues...I think the same principle might be effecting the EURO op since its increases in resolution over recent years... why its more jumpy then it used to be with specific storms, but if you know how to account for that the 3k NAM especially has been a valuable tool with seeing how meso scale features will impact a system. It picked up on that split between the baroclinicity induced precip and the jet streak enhances band that screwed me over two weekends ago and placed it dead on accurately from about 36 hours out. It's been pretty good at what it is meant for...NOT nailing synoptic features at 60-84 hours lol. Others agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Not that I am defending the NAM but the Euro was pretty close to something as well. Think we are potentially closer then many of us realize. Of course watch it all go poof in the next 24 hours. This is your storm! Bring it home! My only problem with the NAM it it's been super jumpy with this storm already, but hopefully it's honing in on something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The chance that I see 6" friday due to dynamic cooling as the NAM suggests is LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is not a weenie statement here... IMO the 3k has been the better of the NAM's since the last upgrade and I have been relatively impressed with it. It's still prone to going off on wild tangents at range due to its resolution and convection issues...I think the same principle might be effecting the EURO op since its increases in resolution over recent years... why its more jumpy then it used to be with specific storms, but if you know how to account for that the 3k NAM especially has been a valuable tool with seeing how meso scale features will impact a system. It picked up on that split between the baroclinicity induced precip and the jet streak enhances band that screwed me over two weekends ago and placed it dead on accurately from about 36 hours out. It's been pretty good at what it is meant for...NOT nailing synoptic features at 60-84 hours lol. Others agree? The NAM 3km nest is absolutely a better model than the 12 km NAM parent and has a ton of utility. We're still right now at the fringes of its useful range, as all regional systems struggle with the synoptic scale beyond 48 hours, so I have limited faith in the exciting Friday solution, but it's not a complete fantasy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not that I am defending the NAM but the Euro was pretty close to something as well. Think we are potentially closer then many of us realize. Of course watch it all go poof in the next 24 hours. The NAM's have actually been WAY better since the upgrade last year imo, especially the 3k, as I posted above. We haven't had a ton of test cases since its been a pretty crappy winter pattern most of the time, but they seem less OUt OF THEIR MIND, then they were before. In the first big test after their upgrade last March with that sleet fest storm, they picked up on that warm layer getting all the way back here from way far out...before ANYTHING else saw it, and we mostly dismissed it as the NAM being the NAM and over amped but it was dead on. They pretty much nailed the details on that storm from 48 hours out. WRT this specific event, I am still pessimistic but the NAM's definitely got my attention. If some other 12z stuff moves in that direction my excitement bar might tick up a tiny bit. But this is why I don't track this kind of thing...a retrograding storm with wrap around from an upper low...lol. Now if it happens and we get even just a couple inches I am ecstatic and thrilled not let down we didnt get more. If nothing happens ehh thats what I expected all along. I give you major props for staying with this all along...I just decided it was better to let it go and then if some miracle happens then great...if not no loss. But having a -4std block is the time of thing that makes a miracle possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: The chance that I see 6" friday due to dynamic cooling as the NAM suggests is LOL 3k says 8", don't sell yourself short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM 3km nest is absolutely a better model than the 12 km NAM parent and has a ton of utility. We're still right now at the fringes of its useful range, as all regional systems struggle with the synoptic scale beyond 48 hours, so I have limited faith in the exciting Friday solution, but it's not a complete fantasy either. The general public would probably have a much higher opinion of the NAM if they only ran it to 48 hours like the old ETA and NGM models. That said I don't mind them running the high res regionals out past 48 hours because I know their synoptic scale depictions are likely off...but they still give you an idea of what a system might look like internally with banding and other such meso features. You just have to realize they aren't likely to place things correctly or deal with any complicated interactions and such right past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 3k says 8", don't sell yourself short. isnt this the storm you told me to stop wasting my time tracking. Wild things can happen with a block man. I wish this track would of been through the Tenn valley. We just missed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The general public would probably have a much higher opinion of the NAM if they only ran it to 48 hours like the old ETA and NGM models. That said I don't mind them running the high res regionals out past 48 hours because I know their synoptic scale depictions are likely off...but they still give you an idea of what a system might look like internally with banding and other such meso features. You just have to realize they aren't likely to place things correctly or deal with any complicated interactions and such right past 48 hours. But the GFS should be and it doesn’t look like that at all as of 6z. That makes me think this is a mirage. Still fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM's have actually been WAY better since the upgrade last year imo, especially the 3k, as I posted above. We haven't had a ton of test cases since its been a pretty crappy winter pattern most of the time, but they seem less OUt OF THEIR MIND, then they were before. In the first big test after their upgrade last March with that sleet fest storm, they picked up on that warm layer getting all the way back here from way far out...before ANYTHING else saw it, and we mostly dismissed it as the NAM being the NAM and over amped but it was dead on. They pretty much nailed the details on that storm from 48 hours out. WRT this specific event, I am still pessimistic but the NAM's definitely got my attention. If some other 12z stuff moves in that direction my excitement bar might tick up a tiny bit. But this is why I don't track this kind of thing...a retrograding storm with wrap around from an upper low...lol. Now if it happens and we get even just a couple inches I am ecstatic and thrilled not let down we didnt get more. If nothing happens ehh thats what I expected all along. I give you major props for staying with this all along...I just decided it was better to let it go and then if some miracle happens then great...if not no loss. But having a -4std block is the time of thing that makes a miracle possible. Can't get overly excited with the NAM's quite yet. The important features and how they play together are now just hitting 48 hours. But I think I might have to agree with you, once inside of 48 hours they seem to have picked up their game. Especially the 3K which I have seen school the 12 k a few times already this year. I still am not a big fan of them outside of 48 hrs though, especially the 12k, because quite often the 500's are all over the place and often there is a disconnect with the 500 and the surface to boot. As far as this storm? I see the potential but we need to see some things happen to realize that potential. So at this point I am in Wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 curious to see what the new RGEM shows in a few minutes because looking at the 6z rgem at 54 hours it looks fairly similar to the 12z NAM at 48 hours. Maybe even a smidge better. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: isnt this the storm you told me to stop wasting my time tracking. Wild things can happen with a block man. I wish this track would of been through the Tenn valley. We just missed out Yea sometimes the weather just wants to weather... but I felt like expecting a retrograding system to nail us with wraparound snows from the northeast was kind of setting up for disappointment. Rather it go down this way (if it does) where I have zero expectations and then get pleasantly surprised. I know that isn't necessarily rational...but this isnt the kind of thing the models have any hope of even coming close to getting right at range...and its such a 1 in 25 years type crazy solution...I just didn't want to get my hopes up. I am not sure a track that far south would have mattered...the system is going to seek out the baroclinic boundary and that is north...and we need it to bomb east of us to pull in the cold and create it under the h5 low... we need it SLIGHTLY south of where it is now...but a track down there might have been a big snowstorm for southern VA and we get rain with an east fetch north of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: But the GFS should be and it doesn’t look like that at all as of 6z. That makes me think this is a mirage. Still fun though. probably...we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This is your storm! Bring it home! My only problem with the NAM it it's been super jumpy with this storm already, but hopefully it's honing in on something here. To be honest this is the first time I really looked into the NAM's with this storm. We are now just hitting my 48 hour window when it comes to them so I will start paying a little more attention now. But I did glance back a little and notice there was very little consistency with the 500's so I am not surprised that the storm would be jumpy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Woke up this morning fully expecting to call time of death for our incoming storm (This Thur-Sat). But like a man hanging from a cliff I find myself clutching desperately for that clump of grass to keep myself from falling into that snow-less abyss. Looking over the latest 00z op runs for the Euro and the GFS I have found my clump of grass. When I now see both models now showing a rapidly strengthening upper level low passing directly through our region to just off the MD/Del coast I have to consider that there may still be some hope. The Euro at this time has a much better look overall then the GFS in both surface low placement and temp profile but I have seen some movement by the GFS towards the Euro's solution so maybe the Euro is more right. So I will stick with the Euro because it gives us our best chances. We are seeing a better response with the surface coastal low in response to 500 low diving in behind it. It is tucking in a little closer to the coast and a little farther south then previous runs generally had it. Euro is also bringing in colder air aloft a little quicker where we see 925 mb and up attaining freezing levels by 12Z Friday. The question is how deep is the warm layer that extends upwards from the surface which is in the low 40's. Now at this point we are seeing the surface low and upper phasing to late to impact our region. Area's to our North and East are in the game (if temps cooperate) but at best we are looking at possible stray snow/rain showers on the back side as the low probably does a loopty-loop in response to the blocking. But at this time as currently projected on the Euro, I believe we are only a matter of 6 hours or so from actually being in the game. Each hour we can shave off from the time we start seeing interaction between the surface and upper level low brings that phase farther and farther SW closer to our region and in fact increases our chances for mercy flakes on the backside. Now how we get those 6 hours, whether a quicker upper low, a slower surface or a combination of both probably doesn't matter. Now at this point it is probably asking a lot for those 6 hours but... Grasping at that clump of grass. eta: Really would still like to see that 500mb low passing just to the south of us instead of through the region. I never expected this weekend to give us snow, but I thought this storm was a crucial part in setting up a 50/50 Low to help us with the upcoming storm for March 7-8th. Is that still something that has potential? Thanks for your insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 hmmm 3kNAM RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Anyone think it's time to split the Friday thing off into its own thread. It's not really long range anymore. If so it should be Showmethesnows thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: hmmm 3kNAM RGEM question is where does that storm drift too in next panel but that should be snow for us at hour 54 lol. Wouuld be wild if we got more snow than Mass from this storm haha. So 18z is our crossroads PSU. Do we take a step forward or the usual 3 steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Anyone think it's time to split the Friday thing off into its own thread. It's not really long range anymore. start it..since this is the PSUhoffman storm. you probably will get the most of anyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Anyone think it's time to split the Friday thing off into its own thread. It's not really long range anymore. I still don't believe in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: question is where does that storm drift too in next panel but that should be snow for us at hour 54 lol. Wouuld be wild if we got more snow than Mass from this storm haha. So 18z is our crossroads PSU. Do we take a step forward or the usual 3 steps back Don't ask questions you don't want the answer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 3k says 8", don't sell yourself short. well in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, mappy said: well in that case. epic winter continues for you...meanwhile for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I still don't believe in it. Nope not one bit I’m in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone think it's time to split the Friday thing off into its own thread. It's not really long range anymore. If so it should be Showmethesnows thread. Sure. I think we could use a wind tracking thread. The NAMs solution is totz presh and I just want to cuddle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 i created a new thread. Im all about good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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