CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: For us, it's comical. Low transfers further south and we still miss. There is zero chance we get this one...it can't even work with a transfer near Hatteras. I can't wait to get past this and on to the hail Mary. I highly doubt it works here either. Maybe Jersey/LI. More likely a NE deal per the Euro. This is the NAM being the NAM. And I concur. On to the Hail Mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 If someone tried to tell me we dont see snow with this 500 pass I would laugh in their face. Whatever: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3k looks just as good as the 12k at h5 through 60hr. Slightly deeper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 For what it’s worth the NAM was a close call another 75 mile swift west and you guys get into the good snows. Still 72 hours out anything can happen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: For what it’s worth the NAM was a close call another 75 mile swift west and you guys get into the good snows. Still 72 hours out anything can happen. . Man Delaware is just kicking it this year. Snow state for sure. New respect for threm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: For what it’s worth the NAM was a close call another 75 mile swift west and you guys get into the good snows. Still 72 hours out anything can happen. . LOL. So you think the NAM has got this nailed eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: LOL. So you think the NAM has got this nailed eh? It does have gfs support(kind of) and it would be nice for you guys to finally have a good event. At the very least what the NAM shows is within the realm of possibilities and has support from the GFS/GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: LOL. So you think the NAM has got this nailed eh? I don't know about the NAM but the GEFS/GFS have been consistent AF with this system. The clustering hasn't changed and the precip mean continues to slowly increase. The GFS is either going to lead the way (the NAM believes so) or have a MAJOR fail. I think this is all or nothing go big or go home type thing. Capture vs non capture/late capture. EPS members have some heavy hitters even down DC land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Man Delaware is just kicking it this year. Snow state for sure. New respect for threm. You know thats not happening. See the 12.4 on that map? Might be 0.4". That would be reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nam doesn't pull heavy snow very far inland until the Hudson Valley. You are not getting the 75 mile shift without a totally different setup. All my eggs are with the 12-14th KU storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: You know thats not happening. See the 12.4 on that map? Might be 0.4". That would reasonable. I don’t know they have the hot hand this year.. we have been the textbook denfintion of snow hole this year...but March 11-12 is money I can feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: gfs coming in sexy Stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Should we make a separate thread for the Wednesday event? Seems like we're close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Stop Are you going to impose your administrative powers on me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I don’t know they have the hot hand this year.. we have been the textbook denfintion of snow hole this year...but March 11-12 is money I can feel it Coastal areas had a few good events early in the winter. Nothing but rain since. Most guidance has the coastal developing too late for significant snow in our region, including DE. Not impossible, but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: Are you going to impose your administrative powers on me? That's up to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Should we make a separate thread for the Wednesday event? Seems like we're close enough. Not a bad idea. If nothing else, it will finally kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's up to you he honestly might be the worst poster we have had since the WWBB cut and paste kids day. Just the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: he honestly might be the worst poster we have had since the WWBB cut and paste kids day. Just the worst Yeah i make JI look good for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Man, the 18z gfs looks exactly like the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: he honestly might be the worst poster we have had since the WWBB cut and paste kids day. Just the worst lol, a 997 low over OC and we get nothing. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Snow line for 18z GFS is slightly more north than the 12z GFS at this time, 72 hours or so outwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, a 997 low over OC and we get nothing. What a winter. welll you said it right there....weak low thats just starting to develop and too far north. How we ever scored with a Miller B in Feb 2010 is beyond me. We are like 1-39 with Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, a 997 low over OC and we get nothing. What a winter. This kind of example alone is what makes me nervous about next week...it's like we can't get it no matter what we have! Recency bias makes it hard to believe even a possible textbook look will work out...mercy! Let's hope it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 one thing with the GFS is you never see large shifts between runs once your within 100 hours....except to take us out of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Sorry if this was said. I took my son to the poconos to play in the snow and was out the last couple hours but the euro is the only guidance that's north right now and it's been over amped all year so not a bad spot. Gfs has been pretty good from day 7 with general tracks. Even the miss this week it nailed the general location of the system. It just over did the h5 and phasing a bit. That had a huge impact on ground truth but it wasn't far off from 7 days out on the placement of features. It was closer then the euro just not close enough for our purposes but the compromise looks like it was 75/25 in the gfs favor to me with that. Cmc has been cold all year and it's south right now. All that is to say I like where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: This kind of example alone is what makes me nervous about next week...it's like we can't get it no matter what we have! Recency bias makes it hard to believe even a possible textbook look will work out...mercy! Let's hope it does... way different next week...we have a southern low...we are not relying on redevelopment from the northern branch sw. It can still screw us...but not in the same way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Sorry if this was said. I took my son to the poconos to play in the snow and was out the last couple hours but the euro is the only guidance that's north right now and it's been over amped all year so not a bad spot. Gfs has been pretty good from day 7 with general tracks. Even the miss this week it nailed the general location of the system. It just over did the h5 and phasing a bit. That had a huge impact on ground truth but it wasn't far off from 7 days out on the placement of features. It was closer then the euro just not close enough for our purposes but the compromise looks like it was 75/25 in the gfs favor to me with that. Cmc has been cold all year and it's south right now. All that is to say I like where we are now. wow...your 75% in favor of getting a HECS. Go big or go home. Bottom of the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just took a look at the euro/eps. Honeslty, pretty much a sideways run for the 12th potential. I have nothing to add from the disco already ITT. Just gotta hope it breaks right and hits on all 8 cylinders. Of any pattern/setup we've seen all winter, it's clearly the best. It might fail but not "because this winter sucks". This one is in a class of its own (in a good way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: way different next week...we have a southern low...we are not relying on redevelopment from the northern branch sw. It can still screw us...but not in the same way If even you are a positive voice of reason on this....perhaps the threat will be legit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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