psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The upper low and the miller b are separate and don't phase until way too late. We get some snow showers with the upper low pass on the euro. Our only hope was that phasing so it would be connected to deep moisture feed from the ccb of the developing low. But they just play off each other at our latitude and don't phase until New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh...I see the GFS served up another day 8/9 goodie...Given all those that have gone "poof" this winter...I'm too afraid to buy into this, despite what you guys have been saying about how the look and timing could be almost textbook, lol Maybe for my own sanity, I'll take a few days off and check back Wednesday to see if it's still there...lol (nah, I don't think the snow weenie section of my brain will be able to resist, but we'll see!) But man we deserve this to pan out, don't we? Lol I think it's safe to say that the GFS really hasn't served up many 8-9 day goodies. It has been pretty stingy on digital snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I think it's safe to say that the GFS really hasn't served up many 8-9 day goodies. It has been pretty stingy on digital snow for us. I guess the ones I'm thinking about came at Day 10, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The upper low and the miller b are separate and don't phase until way too late. We get some snow showers with the upper low pass on the euro. Our only hope was that phasing so it would be connected to deep moisture feed from the ccb of the developing low. But they just play off each other at our latitude and don't phase until New England. Yeah it's really textbook for how Miller B's usually work around here. There have been a number of them that have been forecasted to hit philly on up the coast but have just been slow in the handoff and end up even missing philly and jersey. You'd probably know the actual examples i'm talking about but it really is to be expected. Even if we were in the game I'd be worried that we get skipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ya gotta zoom out to see how nice the h5 look really is on the GEFS leading into this potential event.. Legit textbook mid-Atlantic HECS pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro isn't going to end well. Upper energy is hanging back too much which is going to allow too much ridging and inland track initially. In winter with this setup that would still work fine but I doubt the cold can hold this time of year with that evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro looks like it starts us out as rain. Big improvement though, just need the high a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Huge hit on the Euro for Garrett County and Canaan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro has a pesky NS system that ruins the high over the lakes. GFS had this yesterday but today it didn't show it interfering until after the storm was 99% over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro is a move in the right direction for next week... a sizable one. You're not going to have your solution at this range anyway so take good over bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Major globals at 12z: Icon looks poised to dump on us. GFS dumps on us. CMC is south. EURO just barely misses but is huge nonetheless! NAVGEM seems poised to be south. All models seem to be on board with the idea of a significant storm along the east coast. In my memory, we haven't had this kind of consensus with this much of a lead since jan 2016. I like where we stand. One north, two hits, and two south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Ian said: Euro is a move in the right direction for next week... a sizable one. You're not going to have your solution at this range anyway so take good over bad. With all the bad fortune we've had this winter, ya get skiddish at the first sign of anything that could ruin things (like the setup for our non-storm on Wednesday bring ruined by whatever) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Am out at this time. Any update on the gefs for the day 8 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ian said: Euro is a move in the right direction for next week... a sizable one. You're not going to have your solution at this range anyway so take good over bad. Yep. All the moving parts were there they just didn't come together perfect like the gfs. A euro type fail is very possible. So is a icon or gfs win. Or even a cmc miss to the south. All within normal error for that range. But I like where we are att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ian said: Euro is a move in the right direction for next week... a sizable one. You're not going to have your solution at this range anyway so take good over bad. Agreed, close enough for this timerange. Textbook setup, I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Am out at this time. Any update on the gefs for the day 8 storm? Smattering of solutions but certainly a signal for an EC storm. Snow mean is about 1.5” in DC for the time period which is a small increase from 6z. Bottom line: signal is there with lots of options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: I think it's safe to say that the GFS really hasn't served up many 8-9 day goodies. It has been pretty stingy on digital snow for us. It's served up its share of fantasy snow this year. For the most recent examples, go back and look at the Feb 28 - March 1 runs for March 7. (I'll have to eat those words if March 7 turns around.) 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: Major globals at 12z: Icon looks poised to dump on us. GFS dumps on us. CMC is south. EURO just barely misses but is huge nonetheless! NAVGEM seems poised to be south. All models seem to be on board with the idea of a significant storm along the east coast. In my memory, we haven't had this kind of consensus with this much of a lead since jan 2016. I like where we stand. One north, two hits, and two south. This is what makes the 12th more interesting than previous fantasy storms imho. It has support from the EPS and GEPS, a good pattern, and support from the other ops, where we seem to be in the middle of solutions. We might still get nothing out of it, but we can't ask for much more than what we have at this range. The GEPS unfortunately took another step back at 12z. It has almost completely backed off March 7th, and there are few good hits beyond that (the control is one of the hits). But the H5 pattern for the 12th is not bad. It doesn't have the 50/50 low that shows up on the GEFS, but there's more spread in the GEPS than the GEFS so it's less likely that you'll see a closed H5 low show up on the GEPS mean 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, cae said: It's served up its share of fantasy snow this year. For the most recent examples, go back and look at the Feb 28 - March 1 runs for March 7. (I'll have to eat those words if March 7 turns around.) This is what makes the 12th more interesting than previous fantasy storms imho. It has support from the EPS and GEPS, a good pattern, and support from the other ops, where we seem to be in the middle of solutions. We might still get nothing out of it, but we can't ask for much more than what we have at this range. The GEPS unfortunately took another step back at 12z. It has almost completely backed off March 7th, and there are few good hits beyond that (the control is one of the hits). But the H5 pattern for the 12th is not bad. It doesn't have the 50/50 low that shows up on the GEFS, but there's more spread in the GEPS than the GEFS so it's less likely that you'll see a closed H5 low show up on the GEPS mean 8 days out. EPS has that closed low in the 50/50 region...overall...pretty good 12z suite for the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I'll let @Bob Chill or someone else do the breakdown, but there are couple YUGE hits on the EPS 12z. Here's the Low Locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I'll let @Bob Chill or someone else do the breakdown, but there are couple YUGE hits on the EPS 12z. Here's the Low Locations. You have to like that look, now let’s get this to within 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS has that closed low in the 50/50 region...overall...pretty good 12z suite for the 12th Yeah it's pretty much a textbook 500 mb look on the GEFS and EPS for a big storm. The GEPS is really close too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it's pretty much a textbook 500 mb look on the GEFS and EPS for a big storm. The GEPS is really close too. I’d imagine there are some good solutions in the mix with that mean hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’d imagine there are some good solutions in the mix with that mean hah E10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 At least all 3 major models are sniffing the 500mb to be decent this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 NAM says hold on...hold on.....for NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM says hold on...hold on.....for NE MD Yeah I think I just got NAMed. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I think I just got NAMed. lol. For us, it's comical. Low transfers further south and we still miss. There is zero chance we get this one...it can't even work with a transfer near Hatteras. I can't wait to get past this and on to the hail Mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I hate the NAM. It always does stuff like this. Kind of ropes you back in a little. I honestly don't buy it one bit...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nam is a DEC 2000 clone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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