CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: GFS basically says we fail even in the best case. That low is sitting over Atlantic City and the precip still doesn't make it here. As it stands now your yard might be in a decent spot. Enjoy your heavy white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 11 hours ago, yoda said: As a large juicy rainstorm So? Rain or snow, that period will have storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: gfs coming in to party for the 13th that looks like the storm to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I would love to see that HP over the top a little bit stronger. But the GFS is going to be really good out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS has a pretty legit 50-50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I would love to see that HP over the top a little bit stronger. But the GFS is going to be really good out this way. GFS verbatim would be a significant storm out our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 986mb low stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 BINGO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 That thing is stacking right at the mouth of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. This GFS run is closer to the coast. This is getting interesting at this point. yeah i saw that as well. Still enough time for this to back into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: BINGO! Yeah really looks good. 1993 redux maybe. and we only have to wait 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 That's would change the perspective on this winter a bit..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Classic mid atlantic set up on the gfs....would be a great way to wrap things up for the season...lets bring this one home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The 12z GFS 500mb map for this LR event is about as ideal a setup for a HECS that you can get. Block. 50 50. My lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Yeah really looks good. 1993 redux maybe. and we only have to wait 8 days 500mb looks nothing like 1993. If anything it is similar to 96 believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 CMC is a miss to the south. Right where we want it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Does look like 1996, but the 500mb low closes off later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 1/2 to 2 inch precip totals through the balt/dc region. If snowfall maps are any indication this would be a pasting. But we already knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 happy hour gfs coming in early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Haha Boston screwzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 This is the exact date of the 1993 storm isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yeah. That is a classic two footer out this way as modeled. Only 27 more runs until it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The reason the location of the secondary low for Wednesday doesn't seem to help is because what matters is the primary for 2 reasons. The flow around that is out of the SW so it's going to dryslot south of the track. Also it's vertically stacked so the old primary is also roughly where the upper energy is and that will eventually become the focus of precip on the west side as the low develops. South of that track dryslots. The WAA precip with any low is northeast of it. With a low forming east of us we're never in the running for that. So if the primary and upper energy goes north we get no precip no matter how south or close the low forms. The trend that looked interesting yesterday was the primary and upper energy trending south. That's now trending north again. The storm day 7 is the one to put our hope in. That's a setup we can win. 50/50. -nao. Good ridge trough axis. Storm coming at us from the southwest. We need a amped system with a perfect track but that setup can work. Not will but can. I'm pinning my hopes on that Hail Mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Mordecai said: This is the exact date of the 1993 storm isn't it? that's what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. That is a classic two footer out this way as modeled. Only 27 more runs until it verifies. Looks a lot like 2016's evolution....dint care what the snow maps say...if we get a stalled 980 low at the mouth of the ches...it's most likely 20"+ storm. Long ways to go with this one...but the big ones a re sniffed out early, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Makes up for the lake of a winter. Needs to lock now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Poor suckers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 44 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is honestly a much better set up @ h5 as advertised right now. All the eggs are going into that basket I think. I have been more optimistic in the march 10-13 window for our Hail Mary for a while. It's a more classic way we win. Could still fail but it's a more viable setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have been more optimistic in the march 10-13 window for our Hail Mary for a while. It's a more classic way we win. Could still fail but it's a more viable setup. Oh it will. I'm about ready to stop the torture. Wednesday is dead and now we have to hope for a hail Mary. I mean, I'm in for the ride, but I'm not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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