showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: A little improvement. Coastal tucked in a bit closer. Still gets going too late. Congrats NJ coast this run. Thought we had a better look at 500's as well. We unfortunately are stuck in no mans land as the energy is in the process of transferring from the primary tot he coastal through our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Thought we had a better look at 500's as well. We unfortunately are stuck in no mans land as the energy is in the process of transferring from the primary tot he coastal through our region. This is what's expected with these miller b type deals. Has the look of a classic screw job for our region. Maybe a few more positive shifts and it works out. Every once in a while we get lucky. Ji is probably right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is what's expected with these miller b type deals. Has the look of a classic screw job for our region. Maybe a few more positive shifts and it works out. Every once in a while we get lucky. Ji is probably right though. Have to agree. Yes it trended towards what we want yesterday but now the limitations of this storm type are showing. 99% of these miss for a reason. We need everything to happen as fast and as amplifies and perfectly as possible. It's just too big an ask most times. The day 8 setup is better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is what's expected with these miller b type deals. Has the look of a classic screw job for our region. Maybe a few more positive shifts and it works out. Every once in a while we get lucky. Ji is probably right though. A little sharper trough with a little more dig, maybe a touch quicker swinging through as well, and we probably see a better solution. But then again that may pull the low to close into the coast and we end up rain. Always an ordeal just to get it to snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: A little sharper trough with a little more dig, maybe a touch quicker swinging through as well, and we probably see a better solution. But then again that may pull the low to close into the coast and we end up rain. Always an ordeal just to get it to snow around here. Ninas are always a challenge and mostly incredibly frustrating for snow in this region. Early call for next winter still a Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Have to agree. Yes it trended towards what we want yesterday but now the limitations of this storm type are showing. 99% of these miss for a reason. We need everything to happen as fast and as amplifies and perfectly as possible. It's just too big an ask most times. The day 8 setup is better for us. It is what it is. But we keep tracking because occasionally we do hit on all cylinders and score with Miller b's and sometimes quite big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 In the end the worst possible solution is again presenting as the most likely. There are two vorts rotating/pinwheeling around this week. Both take almost the perfect track. But the first is ruined by a primary too far north to allow the coastal to develop in time. But it does develop enough to sqash any surface development for vort 2 a day later. This is a typical problem when we have to rely all on the northern stream. It takes perfect thread the needle timing. Amp too soon they are north of us. Too late and it hits New England. Hard to get them to dig enough then amplify at exactly the right moment. Our window with these are just so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: It is what it is. But we keep tracking because occasionally we do hit on all cylinders and score with Miller b's and sometimes quite big. I am not trying to start a familiar, and annoying chant, but certainly going to be helpful to be further northeast for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ninas are always a challenge and mostly incredibly frustrating for snow in this region. Early call for next winter still a Nino? My early call is seeing if I can convince my wife into selling the house and getting a cabin up in the Laurel Highlands in western PA. Even in a bad year they typically see at least 80-100 inches in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Have to agree. Yes it trended towards what we want yesterday but now the limitations of this storm type are showing. 99% of these miss for a reason. We need everything to happen as fast and as amplifies and perfectly as possible. It's just too big an ask most times. The day 8 setup is better for us. Yeah it's Hail Mary time. Keenum to Diggs. Cue it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I am not trying to start a familiar, and annoying chant, but certainly going to be helpful to be further northeast for this one. I am confused, what annoying chant could that possibly be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: My early call is seeing if I can convince my wife into selling the house and getting a cabin up in the Laurel Highlands in western PA. Even in a bad year they typically see at least 80-100 inches in the higher elevations. Yeah that area down to Canaan is always going to get their snow. I really like Canaan, but not sure I could live somewhere that is considerably more out in the sticks than where I already live lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it's Hail Mary time. Keenum to Diggs. Cue it up. Extrapolating from the 84 hr NAM day 8 is a slam dunk. Shame we don't have the DGEX anymore to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Extrapolating from the 84 hr NAM day 8 is a slam dunk. Shame we don't have the DGEX anymore to confirm. I bet the CRAS shows our snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Channel 7 calling for rain/snow on Wed with possible Nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 This is definitely trending towards the miller B Mid atlantic hose job. Think Boxing day, Dec 2000, Jan 2018. These storms seem much more common lately. NJ/NYC gets slammed, we watch. If its any consolation, as it stands now, it looks temps might be an issue up there. It might puke snow, but they will have accumulation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Channel 7 calling for rain/snow on Wed with possible Nor'easter I saw that and thought they liked the ratings from Windmeggedon. Hype. Not doing anyone a public service for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: This is definitely trending towards the miller B Mid atlantic hose job. Think Boxing day, Dec 2000, Jan 2018. These storms seem much more common lately. NJ/NYC gets slammed, we watch. If its any consolation, as it stands now, it looks temps might be an issue up there. It might puke snow, but they will have accumulation issues. Yeah. I said last night that I will dryslot out this way. It is just how these things go out here with Miller B's. I think Baltimore north and west is still in the game. It could come together in time for them. But I cant complain about this mornings GFS run. It gives me over a foot in the next ten days. The day 9 thing as modeled is perfection for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Hmmm. This GFS run is closer to the coast. This is getting interesting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 lol CMC is way east with the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Icon for next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Hmmm. This GFS run is closer to the coast. This is getting interesting at this point.Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. This GFS run is closer to the coast. This is getting interesting at this point. How does a low popping off Hatteras (12z GFS) and riding the coast produce no snow for us? Ok. Let the flame throwing begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon for next That is honestly a much better set up @ h5 as advertised right now. All the eggs are going into that basket I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 ok one last chance then warm up so I can eat some strawberries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I said last night that I will dryslot out this way. It is just how these things go out here with Miller B's. I think Baltimore north and west is still in the game. It could come together in time for them. But I cant complain about this mornings GFS run. It gives me over a foot in the next ten days. The day 9 thing as modeled is perfection for my area. The 12th is our storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: How does a low popping off Hatteras (12z GFS) and riding the coast produce no snow for us? Ok. Let the flame throwing begin... Jumper dry slot in action. But I think someone is going to be seeing some snow out of this in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. This GFS run is closer to the coast. This is getting interesting at this point. GFS basically says we fail even in the best case. That low is sitting over Atlantic City and the precip still doesn't make it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: How does a low popping off Hatteras (12z GFS) and riding the coast produce no snow for us? Ok. Let the flame throwing begin... i'm an extreme novice, but just looking at the map i think the initial primary or ull is too far north which might explain why it gets going too late for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 gfs coming in to party for the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.