yoda Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Crossroads run for nam....looks way more North lol Lol it's the NAM at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Its a catastrophe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 29 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol it's the NAM at range 500's are lagging behind. Won't get it done as depicted because it goes for the capture to late. That said my issue has always been the inconsistency the NAM shows at range with the 500's and that is exactly what we are seeing here once again. Won't even mention the fact that following the surface is a lost cause if there is no consistency above. Give me another day of runs then I will start giving some weight to the NAM. eta: Not saying this solution couldn't be right it very well could be. Lets just see some run over run consistency first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Eps snowfall map best ive seen in a while thanks to march 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps snowfall map best ive seen in a while thanks to march 12 But knowing this winter it will be the Euro Control run that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 06Z GFS is slightly slower with the 500's in capturing the coastal vs. the 00z. Thus we are seeing any significant snow shifted NEward (NJ on up). Northern tier of MD still sees 1 to 1 1/2 inch totals of what would probably be mostly white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS is now showing a stronger shortwave running a couple of days ahead of our day 8/9 possible storm. Lets see if that will screw up our chances as we now see changes at 500's leading into our storm at day 6/7 (trough dig and progression is slower). To make matters worse the shortwave dies just as it is at our doorstep so we might see a sprinkle or two from it at best while those in the midwest score some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 And the GFS still pulls off a little something for our day 8/9 storm though it is 12-18 hours slower then the previous run. The lead in shortwave pulls the boundary southward (cooler temps for our region) leading into our storm. We manage to see 1 to 2 inch ( as far as the snow maps are concerned) totals through the DC/Balt corridor. And again we are so close to something much bigger at 500 mb. As is the trough/closed low is still too progressive so the storm doesn't get its act together quickly enough to pull it up the coast so instead we see it slide OTS to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Navgem gfs nam and icon all trended north with the primary for the 7th at 6z. That's not a fluke run. When they all do the same thing at the same time they picked up on something. Could reverse itself next run. No guarantee the idea they picked up on is right. But the trend in our favor definitely stopped overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: 500's are lagging behind. Won't get it done as depicted because it goes for the capture to late. That said my issue has always been the inconsistency the NAM shows at range with the 500's and that is exactly what we are seeing here once again. Won't even mention the fact that following the surface is a lost cause if there is no consistency above. Give me another day of runs then I will start giving some weight to the NAM. eta: Not saying this solution couldn't be right it very well could be. Lets just see some run over run consistency first. It really is all about that trailing energy. First off we have no true cold air source. With no phase, the coastal low is weak, and most of the precip is offshore, so what falls will be light and probably mostly rain. If there is a phase, the low deepens, and there is a much more impressive area of heavier precip west of the low. This must happen, and happen far enough south, for our region to get in on the good lift. It will take dynamical column cooling to get it done with the very marginal temps. My gut says there will enough of a capture to produce an area of heavy wet snow, but it happens to the NE of our region. Yeah I know, that's not really going out on a limb. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Navgem gfs nam and icon all trended north with the primary for the 7th at 6z. That's not a fluke run. When they all do the same thing at the same time they picked up on something. Could reverse itself next run. No guarantee the idea they picked up on is right. But the trend in our favor definitely stopped overnight. Noticed that as well. Not sure I am concerned with it quite yet though. That primary location will depend a great deal on what we see with the 500's (trough/closed low) and the energy revolving down around and through that. And at 3 day lead that is still very much up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It really is all about that trailing energy. First off we have no true cold air source. With no phase, the low is weak, and most of the precip is offshore, so what falls will be light and probably mostly rain. If there is a phase, the low deepens, and there is a mucn more impressive area of heavier precip west of the low. This must happen, and happen far enough south, for our region to get in on the good lift. It will take dynamical column cooling to get it done with the very marginal temps. My gut says there will enough of a capture to produce an area of heavy snow, but it happens to the NE of our region. Yeah I know, that's not really going out on a limb. lol. Speaking to the choir. Just as our last system we are again talking about timing. And again we are probably about 6 hours off. At this point Dc north and east are still in the game and we have 3 days to pick that up. As PSU mentioned some of that timing will be dependent on the primary placement over the lakes. The farther n and west that sets up the slower we see the phasing occur. But as I mentioned to PSU a sec ago I think that primary low placement will be highly dependent on the 500's and the energy revolving through it. Wouldn't/won't take much of a change there to see somewhat drastic changes for our region at the surface. And at 3 days I think that is still far from a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 There's been a clear trend this winter with big storms along the coast for everything to be too far north and east for us. It looks like that trend is going to continue. It's basically been the winter of the coastal cities, and then to some degree Philadelphia and north and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Speaking to the choir. Just as our last system we are again talking about timing. And again we are probably about 6 hours off. At this point Dc north and east are still in the game and we have 3 days to pick that up. As PSU mentioned some of that timing will be dependent on the primary placement over the lakes. The farther n and west that sets up the slower we see the phasing occur. But as I mentioned to PSU a sec ago I think that primary low placement will be highly dependent on the 500's and the energy revolving through it. Wouldn't/won't take much of a change there to see somewhat drastic changes for our region at the surface. And at 3 days I think that is still far from a done deal. Yeah positive changes are still possible, and I am not too concerned yet either that 6z NAM and a couple of the JV models have the primary further north. The 6z GFS was also a tad north of the 0z run, but not going to worry over off runs- I'll wait until 12z and see if it looks like a trend. All that being said, my guess is there will be enough of a capture to keep the developing coastal low closer to the coast and deepen it, but by the time it really gets going it's off the NJ coast, the ccb develops to our north, and much of our region is left high and dry. I hope I am wrong, but that is usually how we roll with these types of events. I am still enjoying the tracking, but the end is near, and my expectations are pretty low on any of these threats working out, especially in my yard. WB Premium cancelation is also near lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Looking at the 06Z GEFS we did see an obvious step backwards for our day 3/4 storm. Snowfall mean only saw a slight downward tick though for ever that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it's possible, and I am not too concerned yet either that 6z NAM and a couple of the JV models have the primary further north. The 6z GFS was also a tad north of the 0z run, but not going to worry over off runs- I'll wait until 12z and see if it looks like a trend. All that being said, my guess is there will be enough of a capture to keep the developing coastal low closer to the coast and deepen it, but by the time it really gets going it's off the NJ coast, the ccb develops to our north, and much of our region is left high and dry. I hope I am wrong, but that is usually how we roll with these types of events. I am still enjoying the tracking, but the end is near, and my expectations are pretty low on any of these threats working out, especially in my yard. WB Premium cancelation is also near lol. Funny, I was just going to check to see when my monthly subscription runs out with weatherbell as well. As long as it doesn't end in the next week or so I will most likely cancel as well. (just checked, runs out on the 13th so I should be good as long as our day 8/9 storm doesn't get delayed a little) With you on the rest. Final solution will probably favor to our north and east (day 3/4 storm). Weather memory after all. But I will keep tracking irregardless hoping that we can for once buck the odds. I am getting very interested in our day 8/9 storm though. Strong persistent signal is developing for a major amplification of the trough in the east and the ridging in the west. Right now the models just don't quite get it done because of the progressiveness of the trough leaving our low a disorganized mess. But we aren't far from a very big solution if we see some minor changes and with 8+ days there is plenty of time to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Funny, I was just going to check to see when my monthly subscription runs out with weatherbell as well. As long as it doesn't end in the next week or so I will most likely cancel as well. (just checked, runs out on the 13th so I should be good as long as our day 8/9 storm doesn't get delayed a little) With you on the rest. Final solution will probably favor to our north and east (day 3/4 storm). Weather memory after all. But I will keep tracking irregardless hoping that we can for once buck the odds. I am getting very interested in our day 8/9 storm though. Strong persistent signal is developing for a major amplification of the trough in the east and the ridging in the west. Right now the models just don't quite get it done because of the progressiveness of the trough leaving our low a disorganized mess. But we aren't far from a very big solution if we see some minor changes and with 8+ days there is plenty of time to see them. The h5 look for the day 9 potential is probably the best we have seen. Worth watching for sure, but given climo and again not much cold around, we would need to see things slow down and hope for a deepening low tracking up and just off the coast to get it done for snow. A strung out weak mess is a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The h5 look for the day 9 potential is probably the best we have seen. Worth watching for sure, but given climo and again not much cold around, we would need to see things slow down and hope for a deepening low tracking up and just off the coast to get it done for snow. A strung out weak mess is a fail. one thing i noticed on the day 9 storm....is this big high pressure in the Midwest....not sure if its effecting things but it wasnt there before and this run was much colder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: one thing i noticed on the day 9 storm....is this big high pressure in the Midwest....not sure if its effecting things but it wasnt there before and this run was much colder lol Yeah having a strong HP appear out of nowhere and in a pretty good spot cant be a bad thing lol. Especially in mid March. Long way to go on this one, and whatever happens, it in all likelihood will mark the end as the pattern breaks down shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 On 3/2/2018 at 8:10 PM, Chris78 said: I actually feel optimistic about the day 9 threat. It's right before things break down and it the 3rd storm in line. 1st was for upstate New York. 2nd storm on the 6/7th looks like a good hit for central and southern New England and the next would be ours as things begin to break down. Unfortunately I think this may be a forum devider since it's so late in the season but I hope not. It just seems like historically when the blocking begins to break down our number is called. It's a shame this blocking didn't set up 2 to 3 weeks earlier. Still wouldn't of guaranteed we would get hit but definitely would of given us an easier way to win. I know blocking doesn't magically Trump everything else but it definitely helps cover up flaws in any given pattern that would negate our snow chances. I'm still feeling optimistic about the 12th. I think it's our last chance for a hail mary..lol I think this storm has more going for it with a nice ridge out west. Too bad there's not a little more cold air around. Whatever happens with the 12th this is probably it and we can close the books on this frustratng winter..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah having a strong HP appear out of nowhere and in a pretty good spot cant be a bad thing lol. Especially in mid March. Long way to go on this one, and whatever happens, it in all likelihood will mark the end as the pattern breaks down shortly after. I'm all for snow in march too but this year feels different. It doesn't feel like the year with a serious pattern to drop snow in march. We've had so much precip since feb also, my yard is so saturated, I'm seriously done with all the rain/snow and hope it dries out for a while. Rivers are running high as heck too. When you say the pattern breaks down, does it look to dry out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Wxdood said: I'm all for snow in march too but this year feels different. It doesn't feel like the year with a serious pattern to drop snow in march. We've had so much precip since feb also, my yard is so saturated, I'm seriously done with all the rain/snow and hope it dries out for a while. Rivers are running high as heck too. When you say the pattern breaks down, does it look to dry out? Not necessarily. I was referring to the pattern becoming unfavorable for producing winter weather in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah having a strong HP appear out of nowhere and in a pretty good spot cant be a bad thing lol. Especially in mid March. Long way to go on this one, and whatever happens, it in all likelihood will mark the end as the pattern breaks down shortly after. What we need is for a HP to suppress the March 7th storm just a tad. This upcoming 12z run will probably tell the tale regarding this storm for us. It's been pretty consistent the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What we need is for a HP to suppress the March 7th storm just a tad. This upcoming 12z run will probably tell the tale regarding this storm for us. It's been pretty consistent the last few days. There won't be a high. Not the right pattern. We need the primary to track further south and get the h5 to phase faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There won't be a high. Not the right pattern. We need the primary to track further south and get the h5 to phase faster. Exactly. That is the only way in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There won't be a high. Not the right pattern. We need the primary to track further south and get the h5 to phase faster. True. That primary only makes it to western Ohio at 6z while at 0z it made it to eastern OH. The 500's keep making changes also, subtle but changes nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Looking at the NAM. Better heights in front of our day 3/4 storm. Low pressure (coastal) looks to initiate a little later. Primary still isn't in a great spot though. See how it plays out but think we might see this a little better solution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There won't be a high. Not the right pattern. We need the primary to track further south and get the h5 to phase faster. It looks that way. By the way thanks for all your updates, including Bob and showme , etc. It would appear though DC does not see it biggest snowfall of season this month as HM thought we might. A very frustrating winter for everyone , even a couple weeks back Ian chimmed in and thought the pattern looked great. And, the all powerful Don S who I admire greatly over on the NY forum thought in late Jan that Feb would be above snowfall and below normal temps, but at least for our area not so much in snowfall , certainly not below normal temps as many thought in mid Jan. for Feb. for most of the East Coast. Weather forecasting is a humbling hobby and profession. In the end the Nina pattern with a front loaded winter for our region and a warmer Feb. and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 A little improvement. Coastal tucked in a bit closer. Still gets going too late. Congrats NJ coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: A little improvement. Coastal tucked in a bit closer. Still gets going too late. Congrats NJ coast this run. we are amazing at trending to close calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.