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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


Cobalt

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Just now, LP08 said:

Waiting for stuff to blossom overhead is always precarious as you well know...we just need to nudge that hand off to the NC/SC boarder instead of obx...Block looked a little stronger this run so let’s hope Ralph’s notion is correct.

It gets tricky with a ull interaction/capture. If it pops too far south it could tuck and just be heavy rain. We don't have much room with temps. A strong storm too far south could wrap in maritime air....or upper level dynamics take over and paste the F out of us. Lol

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Looks like GGEM is a bit better for us... but that's based off our favorite B and W maps lol

I don't think it's better.  Low is farther east, temps a little warmer.  Probably 1-3" in northern MD, nothing in DC and south.

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
19 minutes ago, LP08 said:
Waiting for stuff to blossom overhead is always precarious as you well know...we just need to nudge that hand off to the NC/SC boarder instead of obx...Block looked a little stronger this run so let’s hope Ralph’s notion is correct.

Euro run is going to put you guys in the game.

Alright Ralph...the Euro run had better do that or else it'll be your hat buddy!!! Lol

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
24 minutes ago, LP08 said:
Waiting for stuff to blossom overhead is always precarious as you well know...we just need to nudge that hand off to the NC/SC boarder instead of obx...Block looked a little stronger this run so let’s hope Ralph’s notion is correct.

Euro run is going to put you guys in the game.

Which guys?  No it’s not. South of N. MD has been out of this since 1 March model runs.  It’s ova.  Watch and see.   

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Which guys?  No it’s not. South of N. MD has been out of this since 1 March model runs.  It’s ova.  Watch and see.   

Then why are you still posting in the winter thread?

Did you not read what Bob Chill and psuhoffman said?

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48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
56 minutes ago, LP08 said:
Waiting for stuff to blossom overhead is always precarious as you well know...we just need to nudge that hand off to the NC/SC boarder instead of obx...Block looked a little stronger this run so let’s hope Ralph’s notion is correct.

Euro run is going to put you guys in the game.

Would be nice if there was some actual cold air around. I will just ignore the fact that surface temps are in the mid to upper 30s during the best precip on both the GFS and CMC. I suppose there is still time for the cold to appear. Dynamical cooling! Even where the GFS places the heaviest snow just to the NE, it would probably be like 5:1 ratios or something lol.

 
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28 minutes ago, yoda said:

Then why are you still posting in the winter thread?

Did you not read what Bob Chill and psuhoffman said?

I did read their posts.  I respect them.  And you immensely.  In fact I very much enjoy when you do the model play by play.  I’m here every day faithfully without fail. Just because I don’t agree with someone 100 miles north of me, and you, I can still follow and post.  It’s roughly 4 days until game time and I see nothing to be enthused about from my vantage point.  I’m not trolling I want snow as much as anyone.  That look without a damming high pressure north of us and transfer north east of us says this storm will blow up northeast of us...too late for most of us anyway.  It’s not that cold and I don’t buy into the phase and create its own cold air idea especially in March.  If I’m wrong it snows.  I have no issue with that. It is my opinion that you and I and 70-80% of this forum are out of this game save some snow showers from the ULL.  

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00z GEPS took a step back, both in the short term and long term.  The op is still better than all the ensemble members for March 7.  There are a few big hits beyond that, but not nearly as good as 12z. 

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