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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


Cobalt

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It was just breaking out as the run ended. The upper low was about to close off over us and dump.  It was just getting good as it ended. Good run. 
Thats about a solid a signal as you want to see among guidance and the trends continue. I still think this is the best DCA-BOS SECS+ threat of the entire winter. Im pulling for this region to cash in...I really am and am hopeful. Will be close to the wire but I think you guys manage to miraculously pull it off.
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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

3k improved with insitu CAD. The low off the coast fights off some of the mid level waa. The front running waa precip with the primary may end up being a light event in itself. 

The more the cold holds in and the ridging gets knocked down the less the primary will cut. All good trends. 

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The more the cold holds in and the ridging gets knocked down the less the primary will cut. All good trends. 
Blocking can surprise people and it does tend to work in favor as opposed to against it ie yesterday we had a "surprise" event in SE PA that was originally pegged for NE PA. Blocks tend to be underdone and trends are more S when this feature is present rather than the 'standard' N and W fail trend. Still need to keep ticking, but you guys are getting closer and closer.
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The trough on the 84 hour NAM doesn't go neutral until it's over West Virginia.  I'm not sure that would cut it even if the run went to 90 hours.  But it's the 84-hour NAM so I'm not going to sweat it.  Close enough.

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22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
It was just breaking out as the run ended. The upper low was about to close off over us and dump.  It was just getting good as it ended. Good run. 

Thats about a solid a signal as you want to see among guidance and the trends continue. I still think this is the best DCA-BOS SECS+ threat of the entire winter. Im pulling for this region to cash in...I really am and am hopeful. Will be close to the wire but I think you guys manage to miraculously pull it off.

We WILL cash in. Thanks for your support 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Definitely the closest in the mid range we have been...why not us this time

Even if the upper level progression happened exactly like what the gfs just did, it could be an event here. The handoff was pretty good for stuff to pop right over top of us. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
The handoff is right over head now. Only need 75 miles now. 

You know whats going to happen. It will trend as far South to give us the ultimate tease and then hit a brick wall

We might already be in the game...

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Even if the upper level progression happened exactly like what the gfs just did, it could be an event here. The handoff was pretty good for stuff to pop right over top of us. 

Waiting for stuff to blossom overhead is always precarious as you well know...we just need to nudge that hand off to the NC/SC boarder instead of obx...Block looked a little stronger this run so let’s hope Ralph’s notion is correct.

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