87storms Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 hours ago, cae said: My understanding is that we need a more negative tilt to the trough. Is that right? By the time this storm really gets going, it's headed OTS. that was my thinking as well. i think that look would be ok if we were talking about a miller A. that looks more like a hybrid or B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Still super long range NAM, but curious to see if it holds from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Still super long range NAM, but curious to see if it holds from 18z.Most important nam run since jan 22 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I count 6 gefs members that look like that cmc run. Then another bunch that are acceptable if not season savers. One member nails us twice and we get 3' next week. Lol Curious, how many GEFS members are there total? I know the EPS is 51, the GEFS closer to 20-something no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I count 6 gefs members that look like that cmc run. Then another bunch that are acceptable if not season savers. One member nails us twice and we get 3' next week. Lol Curious, how many GEFS members are there total? I know the EPS is 51, the GEFS closer to 20-something no? I think it is 20 perturbed members plus the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 44 minutes ago, Ji said: 59 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Still super long range NAM, but curious to see if it holds from 18z. Most important nam run since jan 22 2016 I hope you got your valley outfit on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Could be that it's just slower, but seems like the ULL is a bit further south compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Could be that it's just slower, but seems like the ULL is a bit further south compared to 18zBy 7 miles. We need 150 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I think it is 20 perturbed members plus the controlThank you. And yes Randy....ULL farther S so far. Blocking looks a little more influential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Could be that it's just slower, but seems like the ULL is a bit further south compared to 18z By 7 miles. We need 150 lol lol, it's not 7. But it's not 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 By 7 miles. We need 150 lolI know u r being sarcastic but that is like a 75 mile or so shift and also seems faster which is better here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 You can also see the ULL in Southern Canada racing WSW as ridging out in front is forcing it to retrograde as the block tries to flex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Ive never seen the 84 hour nam followed to closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: Ive never seen the 84 hour nam followed to closely You haven't been here long then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 These changes should yield a better result and the 18z was already honking so yeah..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The snow showers that the 0z NAM shows over DCA starting at 75hrs would probably be my 4th best event of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lol amazing 500mb...where is the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 NAM hr 84 aka the most accurate LR model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Lol amazing 500mb...where is the snow It's winter 2018 in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lol amazing 500mb...where is the snow FWIW I’ve noticed NAM has been bone dry at range this year. But then again it probably nailed all the stuff during the drought because of that, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol amazing 500mb...where is the snow Between hr84&96. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The NAM is "dry" at f84 because the 850 level (and levels around it) still look like garbage. It's from the east, but it has only about 10-15 kt of flow, which won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol amazing 500mb...where is the snow It was just breaking out as the run ended. The upper low was about to close off over us and dump. It was just getting good as it ended. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM is "dry" at f84 because the 850 level (and levels around it) still look like garbage. It's from the east, but it has only about 10-15 kt of flow, which won't get it done. It's just getting its act together. But the last frame you can see the precip blossoming from the west as the upper level low catches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was just breaking out as the run ended. The upper low was about to close off over us and dump. It was just getting good as it ended. Good run. 3k improved with insitu CAD. The low off the coast fights off some of the mid level waa. The front running waa precip with the primary may end up being a light event in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Between hr84&96. We're good. Yep. You can see it just starting to break out from the west on the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lol amazing 500mb...where is the snow You know the drill.....pay closer attention to 500mb, surface nasomuch just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Mordecai said: NAM hr 84 aka the most accurate LR model I would assume development would explode on top of us right after the 84 hour frame but it's dangerous to assume from the 84 hour nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3k improved the with insitu CAD. The low off the coast fights off some of the mid level waa. The front running waa precip with the primary may end up being a light event in itself. IIRC 12z EURO had the front running feature as well. Showed as snow via the snowmaps but temps weren’t that nice at 10m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's just getting its act together. But the last frame you can see the precip blossoming from the west as the upper level low catches up. We need the NAM extended to 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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