Jebman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Mordecai said: But we’re all still going to get shellacked by snow, right? Just like the 37th euro member depicts it Copy that. We are still going to get shellacked by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, Interstate said: If that is the best member then we are in trouble Don't even bother checking the different members of the 00z run. It's pretty depressing unless you live in the mountains of west virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6z GFS got a storm back on for late next week. Pretty close to being something. Low looks like it pops south of us. Shows rain for now, but worth keeping an eye on. It’s all we got so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: 6z GFS got a storm back on for late next week. Pretty close to being something. Low looks like it pops south of us. Shows rain for now, but worth keeping an eye on. It’s all we got so... 850s look ok but we need that transfer in TN or S. KY to make it work I think. If we only had some blocking. Wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Woke up this morning fully expecting to call time of death for our incoming storm (This Thur-Sat). But like a man hanging from a cliff I find myself clutching desperately for that clump of grass to keep myself from falling into that snow-less abyss. Looking over the latest 00z op runs for the Euro and the GFS I have found my clump of grass. When I now see both models now showing a rapidly strengthening upper level low passing directly through our region to just off the MD/Del coast I have to consider that there may still be some hope. The Euro at this time has a much better look overall then the GFS in both surface low placement and temp profile but I have seen some movement by the GFS towards the Euro's solution so maybe the Euro is more right. So I will stick with the Euro because it gives us our best chances. We are seeing a better response with the surface coastal low in response to 500 low diving in behind it. It is tucking in a little closer to the coast and a little farther south then previous runs generally had it. Euro is also bringing in colder air aloft a little quicker where we see 925 mb and up attaining freezing levels by 12Z Friday. The question is how deep is the warm layer that extends upwards from the surface which is in the low 40's. Now at this point we are seeing the surface low and upper phasing to late to impact our region. Area's to our North and East are in the game (if temps cooperate) but at best we are looking at possible stray snow/rain showers on the back side as the low probably does a loopty-loop in response to the blocking. But at this time as currently projected on the Euro, I believe we are only a matter of 6 hours or so from actually being in the game. Each hour we can shave off from the time we start seeing interaction between the surface and upper level low brings that phase farther and farther SW closer to our region and in fact increases our chances for mercy flakes on the backside. Now how we get those 6 hours, whether a quicker upper low, a slower surface or a combination of both probably doesn't matter. Now at this point it is probably asking a lot for those 6 hours but... Grasping at that clump of grass. eta: Really would still like to see that 500mb low passing just to the south of us instead of through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 43 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 850s look ok but we need that transfer in TN or S. KY to make it work I think. If we only had some blocking. Wait a minute... The "historic" -NAO is useless to us, because its brief and quickly weakens as it merges with the mid latitude ridge developing and moving east. Beyond that we are left with a decent pattern for a time, with a general trough in the east, underneath weaker +heights in the NAO domain. Good enough though. The Pac is pretty much crud the whole time and looks to become more hostile towards mid month. It looks like we have maybe a week to score something, probably the 7th through the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The "historic" -NAO is useless to us, because it brief and quickly weakens as it merges with the mid latitude ridge developing and moving east. Beyond that we are left with a decent pattern for a time, with a general trough in the east, underneath weaker +heights in the NAO domain. Good enough though. The Pac is pretty much crud the whole time and looks to become more hostile towards mid month. It looks like we have maybe a week to score something, probably the 7th through the 15th. About the way I see it. After that, barring a fluke, we are probably talking about the fat lady singing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Woke up this morning fully expecting to call time of death for our incoming storm (This Thur-Sat). But like a man hanging from a cliff I find myself clutching desperately for that clump of grass to keep myself from falling into that snow-less abyss. Looking over the latest 00z op runs for the Euro and the GFS I have found my clump of grass. When I now see both models now showing a rapidly strengthening upper level low passing directly through our region to just off the MD/Del coast I have to consider that there may still be some hope. The Euro at this time has a much better look overall then the GFS in both surface low placement and temp profile but I have seen some movement by the GFS towards the Euro's solution so maybe the Euro is more right. So I will stick with the Euro because it gives us our best chances. We are seeing a better response with the surface coastal low in response to 500 low diving in behind it. It is tucking in a little closer to the coast and a little farther south then previous runs generally had it. Euro is also bringing in colder air aloft a little quicker where we see 925 mb and up attaining freezing levels by 12Z Friday. The question is how deep is the warm layer that extends upwards from the surface which is in the low 40's. Now at this point we are seeing the surface low and upper phasing to late to impact our region. Area's to our North and East are in the game (if temps cooperate) but at best we are looking at possible stray snow/rain showers on the back side as the low probably does a loopty-loop in response to the blocking. But at this time as currently projected on the Euro, I believe we are only a matter of 6 hours or so from actually being in the game. Each hour we can shave off from the time we start seeing interaction between the surface and upper level low brings that phase farther and farther SW closer to our region and in fact increases our chances for mercy flakes on the backside. Now how we get those 6 hours, whether a quicker upper low, a slower surface or a combination of both probably doesn't matter. Now at this point it is probably asking a lot for those 6 hours but... Grasping at that clump of grass. It's crab grass i admire your resolve with this garbage setup and I see what you see, but due to the antecedent airmass so much has to go perfectly to even just eek out a pity inch or two from wrap around upper low snow that I'm not bothering to track it. I never track wrap around snow. It's a set up to be let down. I'm interested but it's like summer thunderstorms I see it as a nowcast thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's crab grass i admire your resolve with this garbage setup and I see what you see, but due to the antecedent airmass so much has to go perfectly to even just eek out a pity inch or two from wrap around upper low snow that I'm not bothering to track it. I never track wrap around snow. It's a set up to be let down. I'm interested but it's like summer thunderstorms I see it as a nowcast thing. It's pretty much last call at the American Wx snow bar. You have spent all evening casually drinking hoping to hook up with a babe and you have struck out. So what do you do? You guzzle as quickly and as much as you can and try to hook up with anything that breaths. Even the poor bar room dog who sleeps in the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Kick*ss NW winds Friday. If Euro and 3knam are right..damaging winds in excess of 50mph will be widespread. Add in possible snow showers and it could be wicked for isolated areas . 850 winds Was just looking at the surface gusts from the euro last night...Looks like an extended period (6-12hrs) of 50+ mph gust through the region on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 31 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was just looking at the surface gusts from the euro last night...Looks like an extended period (6-12hrs) of 50+ mph gust through the region on Friday. I'm down south in VA. low elevations. The worst we will get are a few gusts to 35 mph. The model clearly shows 50s and 60s gusts in north MD. This is one time I am already thankful most of the energy will be well north of me. I'll take my sparse drizzle and hardly any rain, in exchange for mercy from those monster Maryland wind gusts. There is going to be a ridiculous amount of tree damage up there, trees bisecting homes, smashing cars to scrap. Ground is soaked from recent rains, 35 mph winds will bring many trees down, can't imagine the apocalyptic damage from 50s wind gusts! I'll take my Virginia mild benign weather thank you very much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Jebman said: I'm down south in VA. low elevations. The worst we will get are a few gusts to 35 mph. The model clearly shows 50s and 60s gusts in north MD. This is one time I am already thankful most of the energy will be well north of me. I'll take my sparse drizzle and hardly any rain, in exchange for mercy from those monster Maryland wind gusts. There is going to be a ridiculous amount of tree damage up there, trees bisecting homes, smashing cars to scrap. Ground is soaked from recent rains, 35 mph winds will bring many trees down, can't imagine the apocalyptic damage from 50s wind gusts! I'll take my Virginia mild benign weather thank you very much lol. Unlike snow, Maryland wins for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I know its not much, but I will gladly taken a slushy inch of back-end snow that the NAM continues to advertise for Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: 850s look ok but we need that transfer in TN or S. KY to make it work I think. If we only had some blocking. Wait a minute... We all know what a jumper a means around here. We would be better off with some entrenched cold air and a front end thump before the jump. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The "historic" -NAO is useless to us, because its brief and quickly weakens as it merges with the mid latitude ridge developing and moving east. Beyond that we are left with a decent pattern for a time, with a general trough in the east, underneath weaker +heights in the NAO domain. Good enough though. The Pac is pretty much crud the whole time and looks to become more hostile towards mid month. It looks like we have maybe a week to score something, probably the 7th through the 15th. 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: About the way I see it. After that, barring a fluke, we are probably talking about the fat lady singing. Everything is out of sync... yea the record level block retrogrades too much and starts to weaken... it would be better if it lingered over greenland longer...but that isn't the only problem. A lot of times the ridging up there moves around and pulses and doesn't just sit over greenland for us. It can still work the way its behaving if other things didnt all go wrong as well. From 10 days ago we were excited because ALL the guidance had a big 50/50 signal. That 50/50 actually ended up being the low that cuts off and sits east of us in the atlantic for a week. That does us no good at all and actually hurts... prevents anything from digging into the southeast and creates the weakness that allows ridging to pop into the northeast ahead of the next wave. Then the next wave finally has the chance to dig but the upper low is taking the absolute worst track. It could dig and become the spark for a storm like the runs 3/4 days ago that focused on March 6. Or it could take a more north track and get out of the way allowing the next system to dig like the GFS run Monday night. But no its going to sit there over the lakes and F up everything cause why not. Then there is the pacific. The EPO needs to back off some to allow the trough in the NW to back up some to stop ridging from popping up the east coast. But instead of backing off SOME...in 48 hours it goes from a huge -epo to a raging +epo. That slams the door shut as pacific air floods across probably by day 16. So we might still get a window of a few days but that's it. Basically just seeing some reds up top doesn't guarantee anything. There are lots of other moving parts. Its a great start...its one of the most important moving parts...but there are many things that have to play nice with each other to get a snowstorm here. As of right now it looks like they are all just a little bit out of sync. Thats the down stuff...on the (limited) up side it is still close. There are a few points where the pattern looks very workable and close to something. If that upper low around day 7-10 trends either south OR north we would have a shot. Right now its kind of stuck in between. Literally right in between where we need it. Some outlier ensembles for instance dig it more and develop a storm that way. Others have it take a more north track and dig something behind it. But the problem is the majority consensus right now is the damn thing takes the worst case scenario track. But its a week away so that can change easily. After that there is still a window of a few days. Right now there are enough hits on the ensembles day 10-14 or so to keep an eye on that. That might be our best look as it all breaks down. That is usually when we get a hit if we do anyways. Remember in 2016 the blocking set in and for a week some were frustrated as we had a cutter and a suppressed event then a perfect track rain storm...before things finally got right as the whole pattern broke down. That's more common then getting a hit early in a blocking regime. So I am not blind to the disappointments of seeing things just be a bit out of sync but I am not ready to throw in the towel yet on some snow this month. I threw in the towel on this being a "good" winter a LONG LONG LONG time ago. But getting one fluke event...the door is closing but its still open a crack imo. Might as well track this to the bitter end. Its coming soon either way. I am preparing for my epic rant though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We all know what a jumper a means around here. We would be better off with some entrenched cold air and a front end thump before the jump. Just saying. Yep. That look won’t get it done even with the 50/50 low and blocking. I can’t believe I am having to say that. We’ve seen almost every possible combination of patterns and it still won’t snow. It’s almost funny..almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Lol...Nam backs snow almost to 95 at HR 60.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Chuck was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Lol...Nam backs snow almost to 95 at HR 60.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: Chuck was right. Funny enough, the run before that 12k NAM unleashed 20-30" of snow on Massachusetts, he talked about how the next run would do so (in the New England forum), and gave a detailed (although badly worded) explanation as to why, and people scoffed him about it, and then it happened on the next NAM run. Chuck sure seems to know what he's talking about, although he says it in a very confusing way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 49 minutes ago, mappy said: I know its not much, but I will gladly taken a slushy inch of back-end snow that the NAM continues to advertise for Friday/Saturday 35 inches in upstate NY. The NAM is off it's rocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yep. That look won’t get it done even with the 50/50 low and blocking. I can’t believe I am having to say that. We’ve seen almost every possible combination of patterns and it still won’t snow. It’s almost funny..almost Luckily "that look" wont be exactly correct from that range. So I wouldn't worry about it much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Chuck was right. Watch us get more snow then boston with some retrograding BS from the northeast or a second coastal redevelopment in response to the upper low phase. Something similar to what happened in southeast PA in the April fools day blizzard 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Watch us get more snow then boston with some retrograding BS from the northeast or a second coastal redevelopment in response to the upper low phase. Well it looks like the NAM is doing that. Just don't have any support for any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I will get fringed though!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Watch us get more snow then boston with some retrograding BS from the northeast or a second coastal redevelopment in response to the upper low phase. That would be ok. Imagine seeing what you just said in LWX forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Well it looks like the NAM is doing that. Just don't have any support for any other model It has major support from the "we're due" index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I know we speculate that the age of HUGE major inside 24 hour busts like January 2000 and March 2001 might be over, and 24 hours might be pushing it with improvements from NWP, but if we ever do get a huge bust like that (good or bad) inside 48 hours for instance...my guess is it would be during transition months like November or especially March when there is still a lot of cold left over on the table but so much more baroclinicity and thus potential energy along with a weakening jet and shorter wavelengths to get weird things the models would struggle to pick up on. Add in the marginal setups with surface temps we tend to see this time of year...and March is my bet for when we do see our next big bust one way or the other. Not saying it will be this...or that it will be our location...but March is when it can happen imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, Interstate said: 35 inches in upstate NY. The NAM is off it's rocker Mappy's map above is from 6z. 12z is more realistic. 27" in upstate NY, and gives the 95 corridor from DC to DE line a trace to 5". Like I said, the 12z is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 km NAM nest also wants to bring some snows to the metro area Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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