CAPE Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: My God that look doesn’t get it done? Do we have to sacrifice something or get a lock of a witch’s hair? That looks really good to me Not much cold around. Plenty of time for some changes though. Like, it could get warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 EPS upping the ante on the d10 deal....some legit march shellackings mixed in...hail mary time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 thats a legit track on the EPS on last 2 frames. Should be some great rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS upping the ante on the d10 deal....some legit march shellackings mixed in...hail mary time. Yeah baby. I need some cheering up after losing half the siding off my house last night. Wind is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 If you lost half your siding insurance should replace the entire thing. We lost one shingle off our roof from a microburst in 2013 and they redid the entire roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 This was something I had mentioned a little earlier in the thread where I felt that we would see the coastal feature continue to come in stronger for our 4 day storm. And for the time being this has been the trend with the 12Z now also coming in stronger with that feature over the 00Z. Along with this strengthening we would normally expect to see an northwestward adjustment of the track and in fact we see this where the mean now is into the coast with some members actually riding inland through the DelMarva. @Ralph Wiggum mentioned that quite often the models underplay the blocking which I have seen to be the case quite often as well. If that is the case here that would hopefully offset the NW adjustment we would normally see if a stronger storm does verify hopefully increasing our odds for white vs. wet. Side note: We really need to root for that low in the Lakes to verify weaker in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not much cold around. Plenty of time for some changes though. Like, it could get warmer. Just what we need the voice of reason. If nothing else it will be a fun time tracking the next couple of weeks. Then I can move on to getting my trailer and site all dewinterized. Yeah baby, camping season is just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is basically a "group think" version of the op. A big shift from 0z but mostly just on the outside looking in. PSU will like the 12z EPS though. heh. it still doesn't seem right that OC and VA beach would out-snow us in any winter, so i'm still holding out hope that we can get something decent. they probably will anyway unless we get a legit storm, but maybe we can at least make a 4th quarter run to make it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 My God that look doesn’t get it done? Do we have to sacrifice something or get a lock of a witch’s hair? That looks really good to meThe force is just too strong. We need a unicorn, toadstool, a drop of hermaphrodite blood, and a lock of Ji's hair to stew for something to work out this season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 So yeah, about the NAM..84 hours, blah blah blah. We're not going to talk about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So yeah, about the NAM..84 hours, blah blah blah. We're not going to talk about that? Broke down and looked at it myself. Wifes out of the house and I was bored so I thought I would glance. Just didn't think it was worth posting about and being known as THAT ONE. Has the storm looking to slide OTS far to the south of our region. 500's were somewhat comparable to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Broke down and looked at it myself. Wifes out of the house and I was bored so I thought I would glance. Just didn't think it was worth posting about and being known as THAT ONE. Has the storm looking to slide OTS far to the south of our region. 500's were somewhat comparable to the globals. True, but for now, it's the only one developing it that far south. Maybe something new for 18zs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: True, but for now, it's the only one developing it that far south. Maybe something new for 18zs seems like the dig was way more south on NAM 18z 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: True, but for now, it's the only one developing it that far south. Maybe something new for 18zs Would be very shocked to see our coastal development that far south. But maybe it is hinting at some slight adjustments south for the globals. But then again it might just be the NAM being the NAM at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: seems like the dig was way more south on NAM 18z 18z 12z You realize that you should be compared 18z at 78 hours with 12z at 84, right? You have both 84 panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 You realize that you should be compared 18z at 78 hours with 12z at 84, right? You have both 84 panelsI compared 84 vs 78 and still had more dig on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I'm not going to do a deep dive into an off hour nam at 84 hours....but I love how it looked. That was about to go nuclear in the next frame and judging from the h5 and h7 look at 84 we were going to get CCBd as the upper energy catches and would develop right over us. The popcorn look to the radar to our west as it ended was the start of that. The next frame would have been oh face worthy had it gone out imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Would be very shocked to see our coastal development that far south. But maybe it is hinting at some slight adjustments south for the globals. But then again it might just be the NAM being the NAM at range.The NAM is mich farther S with primary in the shorter term.....the blocking is doing its dirty work. That primary is also a hell of alot weaker and transfers faster. There is barely a hint left of the primary near the GL at 84 hours. That is huge imo. I think this would have yielded a nice tucked tight LP in later panels. Right or wrong, it is a good trend to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I'm not going to do a deep dive into an off hour nam at 84 hours....but I love how it looked. That was about to go nuclear in the next frame and judging from the h5 and h7 look at 84 we were going to get CCBd as the upper energy catches and would develop right over us. The popcorn look to the radar to our west as it ended was the start of that. The next frame would have been oh face worthy had it gone out imo. Exactly what I posted in my respective subforum. Verbatim great look. For those that would argue its the NAM at range end, the changes are evident by 48 hours irt the blocking and the lp not being able to penetrate N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not going to do a deep dive into an off hour nam at 84 hours....but I love how it looked. That was about to go nuclear in the next frame and judging from the h5 and h7 look at 84 we were going to get CCBd as the upper energy catches and would develop right over us. The popcorn look to the radar to our west as it ended was the start of that. The next frame would have been oh face worthy had it gone out imo. That was my thought as well, but I didn't want to seem to excited...it is the 84 hour NAM after all. But who knows, maybe the models are in the start of "handling the block correctly" phase. Or it call all just be noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Broke down and looked at it myself. Wifes out of the house and I was bored so I thought I would glance. Just didn't think it was worth posting about and being known as THAT ONE. Has the storm looking to slide OTS far to the south of our region. 500's were somewhat comparable to the globals. I think it was going to be good. That precip along the old front east of us isn't going to be where the big winners are. The ccb will explode to the west as the upper low catches up and phases. Think how round 2 of the feb 10 2010 storm did. Both the h7 and h5 looked perfect and seemed poised for that development to be right over top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I could be completely off-base but this has the trending look to be the biggest DCA-BOS widespread SECS+ of the entire season. So darn close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Would be very shocked to see our coastal development that far south. But maybe it is hinting at some slight adjustments south for the globals. But then again it might just be the NAM being the NAM at range. The NAM is mich farther S with primary in the shorter term.....the blocking is doing its dirty work. That primary is also a hell of alot weaker and transfers faster. There is barely a hint left of the primary near the GL at 84 hours. That is huge imo. I think this would have yielded a nice tucked tight LP in later panels. Right or wrong, it is a good trend to see. Didn't really look to hard into it. Just can't get up the energy to care too much about the NAM at range. All to often it is all over the board with the 500's from run to run which makes it a very unreliable model to follow at long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Over amped is a typical nam bias at range. But being too far south isn't. Just worth noting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 At this point we want the trend of further south with the primary and further south with coastal development to continue. Any model that shows this is encouraging even if it’s the 84hr nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think it was going to be good. That precip along the old front east of us isn't going to be where the big winners are. The ccb will explode to the west as the upper low catches up and phases. Think how round 2 of the feb 10 2010 storm did. Both the h7 and h5 looked perfect and seemed poised for that development to be right over top of us. Okay, you all made me look a little deeper into it. And I agree it is a much better look then I first realized. Still, I just can't get overly worked up about the NAM at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Didn't really look to hard into it. Just can't get up the energy to care too much about the NAM at range. All to often it is all over the board with the 500's from run to run which makes it a very unreliable model to follow at long leads. It has been spot on in my area last several storms tbh. Not sure re: overall pattern but has tended to lead the way irt to trends at range and thermals in the short term. Killing it lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I could be completely off-base but this has the trending look to be the biggest DCA-BOS widespread SECS+ of the entire season. So darn close now. NAM aside, I have liked what I have seen on the runs today. Think we are very much in the game here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 EPS is "warming" to the idea of forum civil war. 12/30/38% (58/74/84%) of the 12UT ensembles give DC (northern MD) >1" during the next 5/10/15 days 6/14/22% (30/50/62%) of the 12 UT ensembles give DC (northern MD) > 3" during the same periods 0/2/6% (12/22/28%) of the 12 UT ensembles give DC (northern MD) > 6" during the same periods The first snow chance begins late on the 6th (Tuesday) and extends through the 7th. The second snow chance begins on the 11th and extends through the 13th. One or two possibilities after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I haven’t found that to be the case as much this past year or so. The NAM has been the first to show the globals were on crack this year by having nothing of any consequence at 84 hours while the other models have a storm at 96-108. It’s good for everyone from DCA on up to see this one might be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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