Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Didn't you leave a few names out? To make this legit discussion on the models thought the GEFS showed good continuity with the 06Z for the day 4/5 storm. Some minor changes mostly for the better. eta: On the surface features. 500mb are still going through some shuffling. GEFS upping potential for the 12th-13th too. A couple members went off the rails but mean SLP track looks really good for long leads...and mean H5 actually has solid confluence to our NE. That has been the missing ingredient start to finish this winter. We just can't seem to get confluence or 50/50 to time with an approaching low. GEFS d8-10 looks about as good as anything we've seen all winter. Can it hold though? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Interesting. Looked like rain on the other map. As we found out yesterday in Philly, dynamics play a bigger role than most models account for. You guys are very much still in the game on this one. I was rather surprised when I popped in and saw how many people have written this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Hard to tell for sure with 24 hour panels but the Ukie looks further south with transfer then 0z to me for day 4 fwiw. With the neg nao, the blocking will always be underplayed until shorter lead times. As with yesterday, we are seeing the same trend to force a slightly earlier and more favorable transfer. Not saying this will be snowmageddon but don't write this one off with ridging to the N......March weather can be quite interesting with that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS upping potential for the 12th-13th too. A couple members went off the rails but mean SLP track looks really good for long leads...and mean H5 actually has solid confluence to our NE. That has been the missing ingredient start to finish this winter. We just can't seem to get confluence or 50/50 to time with an approaching low. GEFS d8-10 looks about as good as anything we've seen all winter. Can it hold though? lol There's no doubt that the ingredients are there for us to see snow (insert usual disclaimers about climo and temps here) it is now just pretty much going to come down to timing. The storm yesterday was only 6 or so hours from being something more then just wind for our region. Just bad timing. That is why I had to laugh at the 06Z GFS. Everything seemed to be timed at the worst possible time and it just cascaded through the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Euro making a decisive move south with the upper level low. Still flawed but man it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro making a decisive move south with the upper level low. Still flawed but man it's close. Yeah, just saw..it's tantalizingly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, just saw..it's tantalizingly close. Get's us into the trailing ULL love. Timing sucks midday but if the primary digs just 100 miles south of this run...we would probably get mini-nuked at worst....good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro making a decisive move south with the upper level low. Still flawed but man it's close. It's been the furthest from anything so far...I'll take it as a win! edit: 998 off of ocean city...me likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: With the neg nao, the blocking will always be underplayed until shorter lead times. As with yesterday, we are seeing the same trend to force a slightly earlier and more favorable transfer. Not saying this will be snowmageddon but don't write this one off with ridging to the N......March weather can be quite interesting with that feature. Looks as if there has been a tendency to ramp up the coastal (day 4/5) over the last few runs. Would not be surprised and actually kind of expect to see that feature come in much stronger as we near in time. If we do in fact see that we need to hope the blocking is being underplayed or we are probably looking at a track tucked into the coast or even slightly inland screwing up our temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Very close to a mini-nuke indeed.... The NE is going to go hog wild with this run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I will sacrifice chickens if I have to. It's really just 75-100 miles away from a legit nuking here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I will sacrifice chickens if I have to. It's really just 75-100 miles away from a legit nuking here... Best Euro OP in ages , me likes too :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very close to a mini-nuke indeed.... The NE is going to go hog wild with this run for sure. Yeah its close. Verbatim using Kuchera its a pasting from N DE points NE. 6-10" through most of NJ. Even the kid from Dover gets a couple inches. Of course a pessimist would say it has all the earmarks of a classic Miller B screw job for most of the MA, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I will sacrifice chickens if I have to. It's really just 75-100 miles away from a legit nuking here... What to believe though. Euro took a major shift away from its previous run and the GFS at 500 mb for our day 4 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will sacrifice chickens if I have to. It's really just 75-100 miles away from a legit nuking here... It's so so close and it's trending the right way towards gametime for once. Sweet 12z runs all around so far. For both threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will sacrifice chickens if I have to. It's really just 75-100 miles away from a legit nuking here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Remember as Ji has been saying all winter, "every time we need a good trend at 96 hrs it trends the wrong way." Not today, folks, not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Latest run of the Euro vs. its previous and the 12z GFS. Quite a significant change at 500s. Have to believe that the 500s leading into the day 4 storm aren't exactly etched in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The whole vorticity package is much more consolidated on the Euro this run for day 4 . It wouldn't surprise me if this gets more impressive and still 96 hour out . Yea, I kept toggling 0z/12z as the panels were coming out and the trend was pretty substantial by hr72. Euro doesn't usually shift that much inside of 72 hours. The whole ball got forced south and it started early. Still on the outside looking in but there are a couple ways to get something discussion worthy on the fringes. Obviously 100 miles south with the secondary is the big way to win because we would get CCB'd as it pulls up the coast. But even if that strikes out, a good h5 pass can have more than just a little dynamically driven precip roll through the area. Would be localized but someone could get under some intense precip for a time. Nice 12z suite even without a flush hit and pretty snowmaps. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Tenmen disapproves of your interest and shakes his head condescendingly. Hold onto your dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Actually really like the look at 500's leading into our possible day 9 storm. Doesn't get it done this run but that look isn't far from something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 GEPS snowfall mean imby is now the highest it has been in a while. Some of the increase is for the day-4 threat, but the op is much better than any of the ensemble members. Only about 1/3 of the ensemble members give me more than 0.1" qpf as snow within 120 hours. Something like what the Euro showed, with some light accumulations in northern MD, looks to be the most common outcome. Most of the increase in the snowfall mean actually comes after 120 hours. Only five members give me more than 0.1" qpf as snow between 120 and 384 hours, but each of those five gives me more than 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 So we need to move this thing south by 100 miles? With our bad fortune this winter....man, that's a tall order, lol I may keep this one at an emotional arm's length and keep expectations low...but yet keep one eye on it (which may turn into two eyes if it trends south again...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 im so glad everyone gave up last night now we can have our win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Hold onto your dreams Kidding aside I think you misunderstand our discussions as thinking it will snow. Even now despite a better 12z suite I would bet against any significant snow even up here. We're just discussing the pattern and storms and along the way we hope something breaks our way and we get snow. It's like playing the lottery. You don't expect to win but in this case the ticket is free so why not. And we enjoy the process and chase. I enjoy this even when we don't get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 EPS is basically a "group think" version of the op. A big shift from 0z but mostly just on the outside looking in. PSU will like the 12z EPS though. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Needing 100 mile shift south feels like 1000 miles but maybe we can actually benefit from nao for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually really like the look at 500's leading into our possible day 9 storm. Doesn't get it done this run but that look isn't far from something big. My God that look doesn’t get it done? Do we have to sacrifice something or get a lock of a witch’s hair? That looks really good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 goats. we need some goats. I know i got a few up hear in carroll county i can steal for the sacrifice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Needing 100 mile shift south feels like 1000 miles but maybe we can actually benefit from nao for once Every time we need a south shift, it goes north. When we need a north shift, it stays south. We are the Charlie Brown of the subforums this year. Can we kick the football before the end of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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