Wonderdog Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Another GFS op run where the transfer is too far north. How often to we see that trend south. Not often. 850s look good but won’t matter without heavy precip. Hope to see other solutions. The fat lady is warming up her voice..and a hot pocket Yes too far north but a smidge more south and west. Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being tucked into the Hatteras area by Wednesday. Stay positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Yes too far north but a smidge more south and west. Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being tucked into the Hatteras area by Wednesday. Stay positive! Roger. I am trying. If I can’t be here for it I would still like to come home and see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The primary is too far north on all guidance. There's no fixing that. However, there's still significant upper level energy rotating through. That part looks interesting. May not be a good coastal setup but I've said this many times over the years....strong upper level energy can surprise people and have a few tricks up the sleeve. Hopefully we stay in the game into the short range with that piece. Models often can't accurately resolve that with 24 hour leads. At least we have more to track than a miller b that hits north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The primary is too far north on all guidance. There's no fixing that. However, there's still significant upper level energy rotating through. That part looks interesting. May not be a good coastal setup but I've said this many times over the years....strong upper level energy can surprise people and have a few tricks up the sleeve. Hopefully we stay in the game into the short range with that piece. Models often can't accurately resolve that with 24 hour leads. At least we have more to track than a miller b that hits north of us. There was also a pretty big increase in hits Day 7-10 on the geps gefs and EPS overnight. I'd like to see that tick up again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 We are still going to get shellacked by snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Jebman said: We are still going to get shellacked by snow this winter. this spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: There was also a pretty big increase in hits Day 7-10 on the geps gefs and EPS overnight. I'd like to see that tick up again today. Heck yea. I was just about to post about the EPS . I counted 18 or so members that had snow in our forum for that period. Some focuse more north and some were flush hits. There was several that missed us but were big hits for southern va and north western Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The GFS looks much better this run at the surface. It is trying to jump off of Delmarva and wants to give us a little bit of something on the front and back ends. We will see I guess. If I was up around Mappy land I would be watching this one. I think we will dry slot out here most likely. But if it does jump where the GFS is showing this run it might come together in time for Baltimore north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 CMC just made things much more interesting even for the Debbie downers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 the cANADIEN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Ninja'd but the CMC is jumping in a great spot for almost all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the cANADIEN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD If you prefer rain, I guess. It's good to see the L there though, have to admit. KInda looks like where the 84 hour NAM was headed with the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The D10 things looks interesting...if not agonizing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Psu and mappy have to love the 1’ snow totals that the gem is spitting out. this thing is closer than we think guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, cae said: Interesting. Looked like rain on the other map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Interesting. Looked like rain on the other map. Let's see what Kuchera says. That could be a very heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, cae said: Let's see what Kuchera says. That could be a very heavy wet snow. Yeah we cut them in half and still run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Heh, d10 on the GFS. Of course it's vastly different from 6z...in a good and interesting way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I'd take my chances with what the GFS is showing...especially that digging ULL at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yeah we cut them in half and still run. Cutting in half seems about right. The 12z GEPS looks like it's another relatively good run. The control looks similar to the op in the 5-day window, with some other good hits in there both in the short term and long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, cae said: How good is the GEM inside of 7 days, better, or worse than the GFS? ( ha ha thats funny actually ) I thought the GEM was above the GFS at times with verification scoring, however, I have seen maps like this from the GEM several times this winter with zero snowfall verification afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Looking at this animation hard to think it will work in our favor, up North, yes, otherwise tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: There was also a pretty big increase in hits Day 7-10 on the geps gefs and EPS overnight. I'd like to see that tick up again today. I'm very interested in the next 10-15 days but not in a "run over run" way. I think that makes sense. Lol I know how dicey March climo can be for my yard and march 2013 will forever haunt me but if something looks good inside of 72 hours you know I'll be all over it. I have no choice but to be....the affliction/sickness that I/we suffer from is incurable. I'm just in a more easy going mode for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I remain interested in this day 4-5 thing because it's actually just a few tweaks away from something. I'll let the rest of you chase the fantasy day 10 stuff that never looks remotely the same when it gets closer in time, and especially now as we start talking about mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, frd said: How good is the GEM inside of 7 days, better, or worse than the GFS? ( ha ha thats funny actually ) I thought the GEM was above the GFS at times with verification scoring, however, I have seen maps like this from the GEM several times this winter with zero snowfall verification afterwards. The GEM has been out-verifying the GFS in the last month or so, but it goes back and forth. You're right that it has shown us some big snow maps that didn't verify. All of the models have. You can look through runs for events this year in the post-model discussion thread. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50849-post-event-model-discussion/ It's unlikely that what the GEM is showing now will verify, but it's still nice to see an op put out that type of run. It's rare for us to get a good hit without seeing a few weenie runs thrown in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Welp, it's going to be a razor thin way to win but the 12z gefs upped the odds. Especially for the northern tier. Obviously 10:1 is very unrealistic but this panel shows that we're more in the game than we have been the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm very interested in the next 10-15 days but not in a "run over run" way. I think that makes sense. Lol I know how dicey March climo can be for my yard and march 2013 will forever haunt me but if something looks good inside of 72 hours you know I'll be all over it. I have no choice but to be....the affliction/sickness that I/we suffer from is incurable. I'm just is a more easy going mode for the time being. Tenmen disapproves of your interest and shakes his head condescendingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Tenmen disapproves of your interest and shakes his head condescendingly. Didn't you leave a few names out? To make this legit discussion on the models thought the GEFS showed good continuity with the 06Z for the day 4/5 storm. Some minor changes mostly for the better. eta: On the surface features. 500mb are still going through some shuffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 If we were 24-48hrs out, I wouldn’t think much about the changes for the 4-5 day threat. But we still have 96hrs and plenty of time for it to turn into something. It’s a long shot but we still have time. Only need about 50 miles further south and the region will really be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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