March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I mean it's amazing right? Enthusiasts who enjoy discussing long range weather are doing it all winter long in a thread that's even titled "long range". Wow! It's so inappropriate. What's even more inappropriate is for someone who basically never participates in coherent discussion in this these threads to come along and be a condescending know it all "telling us how it is". 

He figured out why DC records warmer temps than surrounding areas. Shockingly, not UHI. Bad sensor! The dude is amazing.

[Ji]

Ggem more interesting now for march 6 than gfs?

[CAPE]

H5 on the 0z GFS looks better @ 132. Still need some improvement with how the 2 pieces of energy interact, but still time. 

 

[psuhoffman]

Only we can find a way to not win with this lol

huge pinwheel throwing vorts under us one after another and nothing to show for it at the surface

obvious problem is the miller b suppressed everything behind it. Not enough space. But this is now the kind of delicate interplay of discreet pieces of energy that the models are likely to struggle with.  Right now we're stuck in between energy being split between wave 1&2 but that can change.

 

[MD Snow]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem more interesting now for march 6 than gfs?

Yeah! Just saw that. GGEM definitely took a step in the right direction. Both GFS and GGEM aren't that far off from having something. Just have to get a little better at h5 and pop the coastal a little further south and we'll be on to something. 

[Ji]

Only we can find a way to not win with this lol
huge pinwheel throwing vorts under us one after another and nothing to show for it at the surface
obvious problem is the miller b suppressed everything behind it. Not enough space. But this is now the kind of delicate interplay of discreet pieces of energy that the models are likely to struggle with.  Right now we're stuck in between energy being split between wave 1&2 but that can change.
 

Not sure how many times this winter you have said were stuck in between something

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Only we can find a way to not win with this lol

huge pinwheel throwing vorts under us one after another and nothing to show for it at the surface

obvious problem is the miller b suppressed everything behind it. Not enough space. But this is now the kind of delicate interplay of discreet pieces of energy that the models are likely to struggle with.  Right now we're stuck in between energy being split between wave 1&2 but that can change.

 

lol I tried to post that same panel with my post above yours, but attachments folder at 100% capacity again. But yeah I concur, and exactly what I was saying in my post. Even as is, it tries at the surface. A bit more separation and dig, and we might win.

[MD Snow]

There is a lot of stuff to track over the next 10 days. We've got some chances. I'm in it for the chase. If we fail we fail. Really hoping we get something that surprises us. 

[Ji]

Gfs day 9 is just insulting

[Ji]

Again i ask...we have the block...where is the cold?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

There is a lot of stuff to track over the next 10 days. We've got some chances. I'm in it for the chase. If we fail we fail. Really hoping we get something that surprises us. 

Yeah its hard to pull the plug given the overall look and all the action.

I will pass on the wisdom of Tenman.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Again i ask...we have the block...where is the cold?

Morch dude.

And of course, the EPAC is shiit. No cold air in the source region.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only we can find a way to not win with this lol
huge pinwheel throwing vorts under us one after another and nothing to show for it at the surface
obvious problem is the miller b suppressed everything behind it. Not enough space. But this is now the kind of delicate interplay of discreet pieces of energy that the models are likely to struggle with.  Right now we're stuck in between energy being split between wave 1&2 but that can change.
 

Not sure how many times this winter you have said were stuck in between something

We have had a lot of bad luck. Not that we didn't have an epic winter. Nina background state made that unlikely. But we could easily have had a fate like 2006 or 2009 or 2011 where at least one storm had a flush hit. We had setups and opportunities but things just didn't work out. Bad luck. 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only we can find a way to not win with this lol

huge pinwheel throwing vorts under us one after another and nothing to show for it at the surface

obvious problem is the miller b suppressed everything behind it. Not enough space. But this is now the kind of delicate interplay of discreet pieces of energy that the models are likely to struggle with.  Right now we're stuck in between energy being split between wave 1&2 but that can change.

 

"Stuck in the middle with you" seems to be the right theme song for this winter, smh. Again, a snow forcefield. I'm gonna do a Ji here and say that as many times as we've been in between something this winter, as long as that's still a possibility, there's like 90% chance that's what will happen, lol I'm so over this betwixt between crap...

[Chris78]

The GFS mean looks a bit  better compared to 18z. Slp development further south and the precip panels look  better also.

A question for someone with access to individual members. Any improvement compared to 18z? 

Edit : actually the day 9 event looks better also. Slp placement goes under us. 18z had a cutter look to it.

[Yeoman]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I can't wait for it to snow next weekend so all the cry babies will stop telling the Long Rangers to put the horse in the stable early.

Sweet dreams

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"Stuck in the middle with you" seems to be the right theme song for this winter, smh. Again, a snow forcefield. I'm gonna do a Ji here and say that as many times as we've been in between something this winter, as long as that's still a possibility, there's like 90% chance that's what will happen, lol I'm so over this betwixt between crap...

When I think of that song I think of that movie where the guy is tied to the chair and tortured.  Reservoir Dogs I think.  That is us in that chair. That is the GFS doing the torturing. 

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the overnight EPS.

Not going to break it down too much. Though there have been some changes (some positive, some negative) for the day 4/5 storm they are generally small with the overall look comparable at both 500 and the surface to the 12Z run. Signal for day 10 is still there though a touch slower. There are some minor changes at 500's but they are somewhat minor considering we are talking day 10. Thought the trough degraded a touch but the ridging in the west improved. Biggest thing I saw was on the surface. The 00Z was somewhat less aggressive with the idea of running a primary to our west.

Snow means have seen a general 1/2 inch increase through the DC/Balt corridor and north for the day 4/5 storm. Looking at individual members there is a slightly overall better look when compared to the 12z though the better solutions tend to favor north of DC. Only one member shows a great solution for the cities with 10" for DC and 16-18 to the north. Seeing another uptick roughly centered on day 10. For the full 15 days there is generally a north/south gradient with DC at 2" and 3 1/2 to 4 sitting up on the PA line.

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the 06Z GFS and had to laugh. What chances we had with the day 9 storm are now gone as far as the GFS is concerned. Once again we are seeing energy in southern Canada interacting with the energy running across the CONUS. We now have a deep low over the lakes as everything gets pulled northward. 

Day 4/5 is still there with only minor changes. We do see a quick follow up to our day 9 storm as a low runs to our south day 11 but that is not allowed to amplify as our day 9 storm is now positioned over eastern NE. Day 15/16 sees another low run through our region but once again it is nixed as we see another low before hand run up into the lakes and deepen screwing that up as well.

Feel like I am Bill Murray in the movie Ground Hog Day. Keep repeating the same Fail over and over again trying to get it right. Except in this case I really question if there is a way to get it right this year.

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 06Z GFS and had to laugh. What chances we had with the day 9 storm are now gone as far as the GFS is concerned. Once again we are seeing energy in southern Canada interacting with the energy running across the CONUS. We now have a deep low over the lakes as everything gets pulled northward. 

Day 4/5 is still there with only minor changes. We do see a quick follow up to our day 9 storm as a low runs to our south day 11 but that is not allowed to amplify as our day 9 storm is now positioned over eastern NE. Day 15/16 sees another low run through our region but once again it is nixed as we see another low before hand run up into the lakes and deepen screwing that up as well.

Feel like I am Bill Murray in the movie Ground Hog Day. Keep repeating the same Fail over and over again trying to get it right. Except in this case I really question if there is a way to get it right this year.

Just illustrates how much luck we need even with a pretty decent pattern. Of course with the base state being Nina, and the Pac remaining crap, a NA block can only help so much. Just way too much NS action, and it's difficult to get a discrete piece of energy with enough separation to dig south enough. Looks like an active period for NE will continue.

[Ji]

Looking at the 06Z GFS and had to laugh. What chances we had with the day 9 storm are now gone as far as the GFS is concerned. Once again we are seeing energy in southern Canada interacting with the energy running across the CONUS. We now have a deep low over the lakes as everything gets pulled northward. 
Day 4/5 is still there with only minor changes. We do see a quick follow up to our day 9 storm as a low runs to our south day 11 but that is not allowed to amplify as our day 9 storm is now positioned over eastern NE. Day 15/16 sees another low run through our region but once again it is nixed as we see another low before hand run up into the lakes and deepen screwing that up as well.
Feel like I am Bill Murray in the movie Ground Hog Day. Keep repeating the same Fail over and over again trying to get it right. Except in this case I really question if there is a way to get it right this year.

6z ensembles strongly disagree for d9 storm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018030306&fh=12

[Wonderdog]

The 500 MB continues to change with every run. I get the feeling we haven't found or seen the final solution yet.

[MD Snow]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

6z ensembles strongly disagree for d9 storm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018030306&fh=12

Yeah, 0z Euro had a low off the GA/SC coast at d10. 

[MD Snow]

navgem has consistently had the hand off to the coastal earlier than other models. Not a bad look. Our only chance is to have the low pop off Hatteras and quickly deepen/capture at h5. Still on the table imo. 

[frd]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 06Z GFS and had to laugh. What chances we had with the day 9 storm are now gone as far as the GFS is concerned. Once again we are seeing energy in southern Canada interacting with the energy running across the CONUS. We now have a deep low over the lakes as everything gets pulled northward. 

Day 4/5 is still there with only minor changes. We do see a quick follow up to our day 9 storm as a low runs to our south day 11 but that is not allowed to amplify as our day 9 storm is now positioned over eastern NE. Day 15/16 sees another low run through our region but once again it is nixed as we see another low before hand run up into the lakes and deepen screwing that up as well.

Feel like I am Bill Murray in the movie Ground Hog Day. Keep repeating the same Fail over and over again trying to get it right. Except in this case I really question if there is a way to get it right this year.

I imagine all of these issues with vort and low pressure spacings in a Northern stream based Nina winter is what provides the long-term lower snowfall averages in a general sense. 

Maybe in the next year or two we will have an oppurtunity to break the cycle and get a more favorable Nino look,  one that favors West Pac forcing along with an active Southern Stream and the reappearence of NAO blocking. 

I actually do believe we are in store for a block-buster winter within the next year or two, coinciding with the very low solar minimum and the 12 month lag that follows it. Just speculation of course. I believe Isotherm had mentioned that at well.     

 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

navgem has consistently had the hand off to the coastal earlier than other models. Not a bad look. Our only chance is to have the low pop off Hatteras and quickly deepen/capture at h5. Still on the table imo. 

 

It's possible, but we need to see some pretty significant changes soon from the A team. There is not much cold air available so it would take a bombing low at the right time and with the right track. Not really feeling this one either, but still some time. Places just north/northeast of our area are once again in a decent position for a paste job as it looks now.

[MD Snow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's possible, but we need to see some pretty significant changes soon from the A team. There is not much cold air available so it would take a bombing low at the right time and with the right track. Not really feeling this one either, but still some time. Places just north/northeast of our area are once again in a decent position for a paste job as it looks now.

Right. I know we've had terrible luck so far this winter but you have to keep hope that the law of averages will help us out at some point. The storm yesterday surprised a lot of people with snow falling where it wasn't supposed to. I know it's a Nina winter etc but coastal's always seem to surprise someone. Our time has to come at some point. We have as good a chance as we've had all winter to score something over the next 10-15 days imo. 

The GFS and GGEM really aren't that far off. 850's are fine and cold air is wrapping in. Surface temps will always be an issue in march. I would venture to say some people are blinded by our bad luck to see the potential here. 

I get it. I know. It probably won't work out. It will probably go poof at 12z. Need changes at h5. Someone's gotta be the optimist though. 

[cae]

Not a bad GEPS run again last night.  A number of threats spread over the next 16 days and another uptick in the snowfall mean imby.  About half of the members give me at least 1" of snow, and two of the misses hit SE Virginia.  I don't have data to back this up, but I suspect it's probably bettter to have a good mix of hits, misses to the north, and misses to the south than just hits and misses to the north.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, cae said:

Not a bad GEPS run again last night.  A number of threats spread over the next 16 days and another uptick in the snowfall mean imby.  About half of the members give me at least 1" of snow, and two of the misses hit SE Virginia.  I don't have data to back this up, but I suspect it's probably bettter to have a good mix of hits, misses to the north, and misses to the south than just hits and misses to the north.

Looking back the past 10 days, and looking ahead the next 10 days,  we never got the look we really needed to ensure even a chance at a WSW event up in the DC, Baltimore and Wilmington areas,  which was a North Carolina or Virginia snow event.  Always more Western hits and to a degree more North hits , that's not going to work for us near I-95. As Bob also mentioned, we needed to see that modeling to know we were truly in the game.  And in hindsight, consistent runs of the GFS and the GEFS mean nothing in terms of consistency without a vote of confidence from the EPS and it's OP.

I rather see supression and deal with that than these outcomes.  

[BristowWx]

Another GFS op run where the transfer is too far north.  How often to we see that trend south.  Not often. 850s look good but won’t matter without heavy precip.  Hope to see other solutions.  The fat lady is warming up her voice..and a hot pocket