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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

Cobalt

By Cobalt,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
Just now, showmethesnow said:

Sounds like this winter has finally gotten you down. :lol:

lol nah.

Been too busy to pay much attention honestly. But we are running short on time. I keep peeking at H5 on the ensembles and thinking, something good should come of this. But then run after run things are all over the place and then generally head the wrong way. Just easy to say its not our year...Ninas in the MA usually suck.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very much.  The problem right now is wave one develops too late for us but amps just enough to squash vort 2 that swings around when the trough is in prime location for us. But minor adjustments and that can work. Weaken wave one. Increase the space. Slow down wave 2. Dig the h5 deeper. Wave 2 comes in more amplified. Any combo of that could suddenly pop that. It's not likely but it's possible and worth watching. 

Trying to nail down any follow up energy revolving around that closed low will have you pulling your hair out at this range. Only take away I get is that the 4/5 day storm is still possible and/or a follow up a day or so later. And who's to say we haven't seen the end of the changes at 500 mb over top to boot. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol nah.

Been too busy to pay much attention honestly. But we are running short on time. I keep peeking at H5 on the ensembles and thinking, something good should come of this. But then run after run things are all over the place and then generally head the wrong way. Just easy to say its not our year...Ninas in the MA usually suck.

Another 2 weeks and it will be all over. I promise. And those that follow severe and tropical will get their turn to have fits.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

GEFS looks better at 108 hr where it looks to pop the coastal low for the day 4/5 storm. Looks as if it is favoring south from the 12 z very roughly around the VA/NC border.

Edit: Actually I lied. Pretty close to the 12z to the south it is just a touch faster. But we do see a slight adjustment to the east as it tracks off our coast line.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS looks better at 108 hr where it looks to pop the coastal low for the day 4/5 storm. Looks as if it is favoring farther south from the 12 z very roughly around the VA/NC border.

Check the time stamp. Maybe it didn't update. I thought 18z gefs was the worst run in a long long time. Transferred later. Stronger lakes primary longer.  Lost the day 10 threat. Not a single member gives D.C. More then 1" from either threat 1 or 2. And only about 3 even give my area anything at all. One huge outlier accounts for almost all the mean snowfall up here.  It was an awful run I can't find any way to sugar coat it. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Check the time stamp. Maybe it didn't update. I thought 18z gefs was the worst run in a long long time. Transferred later. Stronger lakes primary longer.  Lost the day 10 threat. Not a single member gives D.C. More then 1" from either threat 1 or 2. And only about 3 even give my area anything at all. One huge outlier accounts for almost all the mean snowfall up here.  It was an awful run I can't find any way to sugar coat it. 

Yeah, had some issues with the maps. Thanks.

eta: Doesn't help I am distracted by a Zombie movie with Arnie Schwarzenegger in it.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly the mean h5 looks ok for the day 9 threat.  But the surface results are awful. 

i think its time to call it dude. It just dosent want to snow this winter. I mean today was a sunny day amidst a historic noreaster

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly the mean h5 looks ok for the day 9 threat.  But the surface results are awful. 

I actually feel optimistic about the day 9 threat. It's right before things break down and it the 3rd storm in line.  1st was for upstate New York. 2nd storm on the 6/7th looks like a good hit for central and southern New England and the next would be ours   as things begin to break down. 

Unfortunately I think this may be a forum devider since it's so late in the season but I hope not. 

It just seems like historically when the blocking begins to break down our number is called. 

It's a shame this blocking didn't set up 2 to 3 weeks earlier. Still wouldn't of guaranteed we would get hit but definitely would of given us an easier way to win.

I know blocking doesn't magically Trump everything else but it definitely helps cover up flaws in any given pattern that would negate our snow chances.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And it lost gefs support. 12z gefs supported that and the op had a cutter. 18z op shows that and the gefs is all cutters. Lol

obviously the GEFS ensembles are incredibley accurate

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think its time to call it dude. It just dosent want to snow this winter. I mean today was a sunny day amidst a historic noreaster

Always just a little out of sync all season. Usually pitiful snow winters don't even have much to track so it's easy to just not care. This winter kept us interested basically start to finish but we couldn't get anything to cross the finish line. We had more than enough "typical" opportunities to hit 10-20" through the region. 

My buddy is Ches Beach thinks this winter was pretty good. Lol. He's pretty honest about measuring and he got over 15" this year. Same with my mom in Cambridge. 

Maybe we get a hail mary but I my guess is its probably over. 

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think its time to call it dude. It just dosent want to snow this winter. I mean today was a sunny day amidst a historic noreaster

It's always 7-10 days away and Way Too  Much discussion this winter about how this and that needs to be perfect and since it wasnt perfect that is why it did not pan out. Experiential foresight will trump hindsight every single time in A Nina 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Always just a little out of sync all season. Usually pitiful snow winters don't even have much to track so it's easy to just not care. This winter kept us interested basically start to finish but we couldn't get anything to cross the finish line. We had more than enough "typical" opportunities to hit 10-20" through the region. 

My buddy is Ches Beach thinks this winter was pretty good. Lol. He's pretty honest about measuring and he got over 15" this year. Same with my mom in Cambridge. 

Maybe we get a hail mary but I my guess is its probably over. 

This. This is why it's been extra miserable! At least last winter only had the one March threat that didn't pan out...at least it wasn't a teaser and ya really didn't care most of the year. This winter? Nothing but a teaser. And we have missed snow just about every way we can...mercy. This is a snowshield winter...one of those winters where there seems to be a giant snow forcefield around the region, smh Ack!

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I actually feel optimistic about the day 9 threat. It's right before things break down and it the 3rd storm in line.  1st was for upstate New York. 2nd storm on the 6/7th looks like a good hit for central and southern New England and the next would be ours   as things begin to break down. 

Unfortunately I think this may be a forum devider since it's so late in the season but I hope not. 

It just seems like historically when the blocking begins to break down our number is called. 

It's a shame this blocking didn't set up 2 to 3 weeks earlier. Still wouldn't of guaranteed we would get hit but definitely would of given us an easier way to win.

I know blocking doesn't magically Trump everything else but it definitely helps cover up flaws in any given pattern that would negate our snow chances.

Ha...ya capitalized the T (I'm gonna guess autocorrect did that, lol)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

It's always 7-10 days away and Way Too  Much discussion this winter about how this and that needs to be perfect and since it wasnt perfect that is why it did not pan out. Experiential foresight will trump hindsight every single time in A Nina 

I'm amazed you fit that much wrong into so few words. 

1. There is a big difference between seasonal forecasting and forecasting a specific day or threat.  You go on and on about the Nina like your teaching us something we don't know.  Everyone expected this year to suck.  We said so way back in the fall.  We know ninas aren't typically snowy.  You don't have some secret there.  But "nina" isn't a way of forecasting specific events.  There have been warning criteria snowstorms in crappy Nina years.  8 of the last 10 ninas had at least one "warning level" event for a significant part of the region.  

1999 march 

2000 January 

2001 January 

2006 February 

2008 December 

2009 March

2011 January 

2012 and 2016 were the only total fails  

so stop acting like Nina means it can't snow.  It means it's unlikely to snow much.  And it means odds favor below avg.  But flukes happen.  Those are facts I listed.  Yet you keep saying Nina all winter as if that's a valid forecast. In years where we fail completely you look smart  and then in years like 1976 or 1999 or 2006 or 2009 when it snows late during an overall crappy Nina you look like an idiot.  

Back in 2015 at the time I thought the best part of that late turnaround was it would finally shut up all the idiots that scream persistence all the damn time and pretend they know what's going to happen based on what has.  You were in the group whining about it that year too.  We all know when it's a snowy pattern it's likely to keep snowing and when it's not it's not.  We aren't stupid.  But sometimes patterns change without warning during a season. And sometimes a fluke happens within a bad pattern.  So we track because there is always a chance and we like too.  Not because we think it will snow.

2.  Some of us like to discuss the why not just the what.  We like to analyze.  We like to learn.  You just want to make a forecast that's fine.  You made your point. You have repeated this same crap 500 times now every year that we don't get much snow.  No one is telling you how to predict or how to talk about the weather so why don't you worry about yourself and let us talk about the weather how we want too also.  

 

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said:

It's always 7-10 days away and Way Too  Much discussion this winter 

I mean it's amazing right? Enthusiasts who enjoy discussing long range weather are doing it all winter long in a thread that's even titled "long range". Wow! It's so inappropriate. What's even more inappropriate is for someone who basically never participates in coherent discussion in this these threads to come along and be a condescending know it all "telling us how it is". 

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