March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[Bob Chill]

The upper level lows sort merge and then sets up a sling shot trailing behind. I kind like this look for a "second chance"

[baltimoreguy]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs is interested in march 12. More then the 7th now. 

Of course. That's because March 12 is 10 days from now. 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, baltimoreguy said:

Of course. That's because March 12 is 10 days from now. 

I think you've spotted the pattern!!

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The upper level lows sort merge and then sets up a sling shot trailing behind. I kind like this look for a "second chance"

When I was looping the h5 of all the overnight guidance I could see that the setup we were looking at 24 hours ago on the gfs was probably not gonna work. But I also saw how the whole h5 lows are pinwheeling and I could see how getting something to dive down the back is now our better chance. And it's complicated enough to think the guidance won't see it until late. But the setup for that is there. After that march 12 is still a threat. And that's probably the end for our tracking. 

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The upper level lows sort merge and then sets up a sling shot trailing behind. I kind like this look for a "second chance"

As in the energy entering MN or the energy in the Plains?

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

welp in unrelated news, the CMC and EURO are linining up at 216 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

oh look theres a storm 10 days out

[Superstorm]

welp in unrelated news, the CMC and EURO are linining up at 216 

I like the look .... cold in front and cold behind.

 

Even another piece of energy behind it that could make it go boom.

 

 

.

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, yoda said:

As in the energy entering MN or the energy in the Plains?

Wasn't talking specifics like that. Just pointing out there's a large pinwheel in a decent position to rotate something through on the heels. It's pretty funny how the euro pretty much completely wastes the potential of the ULL as a whole. When you compare the upper levels to the surface it's seems disconnected. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Our snow climo is hostile 90% of the time. It's just a fact of where we're located. The thing that can be hard to grapple with is that we can get monster storms but the vast majority of days of every single winter don't include snow on the ground. The only reliable long lead signal for above normal chances of good snowfall is a moderate Nino (west based is optimal). Other than that, winters prone to underwhelm. Sometimes we go on heaters when we shouldn't. Other times we waste optimal patterns. More often than not we're right on a razor thin edge of having something work out or totally fail. I personally don't get stressed or emotional about any of it. I just fully enjoy when it works out but otherwise I just shrug my shoulders when it doesn't.

Well, you've been tracking a lot longer than I have, good sir...so perhaps you're immune to the stress of it...but to this millennial it's frustrating as heck when it happens consecutively like this...I think I was happier when I didn't know what tracking weather models was about and just relied on forecasts as they came, lol But when you track, you are confronted with the reality of how close we can come to something and then fall short. Worst part is...now that I know these models and such exist...it's hard to not follow it even though it can make ya miserable if you get too invested and it doesn't work out...

[PDIII]

I am desperate. Is euro snow at 240?

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I am desperate. Is euro snow at 240?

Nope

[psuhoffman]

EPS mean h5 isn't a bad look day 6-12.  It manages to "mostly" waste the pinwheel idea. Too many cooks in the kitchen problem. It has vorts flying around everywhere and nothing amplifies. A few members clip us in that period but I wouldn't be shocked if something becomes a threat somewhere in that period day 6-8. After that the bowling ball crosses the 50/50 space which sets up a threat from the west before the pattern breaks down. There are some hits day 10-15. Enough to not write off the period yet. 

[cae]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs is interested in march 12. More then the 7th now. 

The EPS and GEPS have been more interested in the period around the 12th than the 7th for a while.  But the GEFS is now really lighting up around the 12th.

It might be another manifestation of the GEFS herd / clustering behavior.  It's interesting though because this time the ensemble members aren't clustered around the op.  There's a clear difference between the ensemble mean and the op at day 10.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll take e15. That's the one that drops 20" up here from day 5 then another 24" from day 10 lol.

That's consistent with what I saw yesterday.  It seems that the better members at day 5, even if they're not good hits, are more likely to be better for future events as well.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, cae said:

The EPS and GEPS have been more interested in the period around the 12th than the 7th for a while.  But the GEFS is now really lighting up around the 12th.

It might be another manifestation of the GEFS herd / clustering behavior.  It's interesting though because this time the ensemble members aren't clustered around the op.  There's a clear difference between the ensemble mean and the op at day 10.

That's consistent with what I saw yesterday.  It seems that the better members at day 5, even if they're not good hits, are more likely to be better for future events as well.

The herd mentality isn't as bad after day 7. By then chaos increases enough to disperse some.  Their still not dispersed enough but some. Even then though if they have herd mentality early then they aren't as valid because they may be missing an error in the first 7 days that leads to a different outcome later. 

[Ji]

EPS mean h5 isn't a bad look day 6-12.  It manages to "mostly" waste the pinwheel idea. Too many cooks in the kitchen problem. It has vorts flying around everywhere and nothing amplifies. A few members clip us in that period but I wouldn't be shocked if something becomes a threat somewhere in that period day 6-8. After that the bowling ball crosses the 50/50 space which sets up a threat from the west before the pattern breaks down. There are some hits day 10-15. Enough to not write off the period yet. 

Isnt this a problem we are suppose to have when there is no blocking? The too many vorts thing?

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS mean h5 isn't a bad look day 6-12.  It manages to "mostly" waste the pinwheel idea. Too many cooks in the kitchen problem. It has vorts flying around everywhere and nothing amplifies. A few members clip us in that period but I wouldn't be shocked if something becomes a threat somewhere in that period day 6-8. After that the bowling ball crosses the 50/50 space which sets up a threat from the west before the pattern breaks down. There are some hits day 10-15. Enough to not write off the period yet. 

Isnt this a problem we are suppose to have when there is no blocking? The too many vorts thing?

Your giving blocking way too much credit.

Having blocking over the top forces mid latitude systems to track under it. That encourages a trough. But under a high latitude block doesn't mean under us. Lol. The biggest advantage though is that those systems often get stuck under the block near the 50/50 space. That's the perfect spot for us to suppress the flow just enough but not too much and encourage confluence where we want.  Without a 50/50 a negative nao alone isn't as great as your making it.

But the storm this week gets blocked too far south. The block retrogrades south of ideal.  First that blocks the storm too far south which opens a weakness which then allows the high latitude ridge to link up with the mid latitude ridge to our west.  That's the biggest reason we might fail here.  

The buckling of the flow in blocking can also slow things down. That is happening here. That bowling ball takes forever to cross. But there are weak prices of energy dispersed all over flying around it and nothing takes over and amplifies. Blocking can't help that. 

that said the look across guidance is oh so close to good. It's workable. Some slight adjustments that are well within typical error could make this work. So it's worth tracking still. But as of right now things are slightly out of sync for what we need. 

[showmethesnow]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Always a crap shoot trying to figure where the models are going in future runs especially when the 500's are so convoluted. I can see a couple of ways this could work, potentially even better, if we see a continuation of the trend to bring that E Canadian energy Swward. Whether having that energy absorbed by our CONUS closed low for the storm we are following. Or having that swing around our CONUS 500 low giving us a shot a day or two later. Or maybe even that energy just ups and goes poof and disappears. But then again I can see this very well being another fail of a long series of fails we have had this year. At this point, ignoring the other models, we are still very much in the game as far as the GFS is concerned.

eta: Still kind of mystified why we are seeing that Canadian 500 low end up being the dominate low as it absorbs the CONUS low. I am sure the models and the mathematics behind them are accurate but looking a things I would think he southern would be the dominant and we would see a reversal.

Looks as if the 18Z GFS is taking option 1 for the time being. The day 4/5 storm is still very much alive on the GFS at this time. Doesn't mean that it will happen just that the option hasn't been taken off the table. Now if we can get a couple of other models to join in.

[Bob Chill]

GFS also has the same type of upper level "sling shot" as the euro as the ull moves through. Verbatim on the panels is weak precip and too warm but the idea of something rotating through is very much alive. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS also has the same type of upper level "sling shot" as the euro as the ull moves through. Verbatim on the panels is weak precip and too warm but the idea of something rotating through is very much alive. 

Very much.  The problem right now is wave one develops too late for us but amps just enough to squash vort 2 that swings around when the trough is in prime location for us. But minor adjustments and that can work. Weaken wave one. Increase the space. Slow down wave 2. Dig the h5 deeper. Wave 2 comes in more amplified. Any combo of that could suddenly pop that. It's not likely but it's possible and worth watching. 

[psuhoffman]

This isn't bad

[psuhoffman]

Most of the blues and reds are in the right place finally and that general look has some support across guidance. 50/50. -nao. Pna ridge. Yes the trough near AK is about to flood warm air and slam our window shut for good but it's just getting going there. Btw that's there a lot on the "right before a big snow" analogs. Having it there allows the pna ridge eastern trough to align good for amplification here. But that's why so many big storms are followed by rapid warming. It's not a stable sustainable cold look. 

Yea we're lacking true cold anywhere in the Conus. And we're pushing the limits of making marginal cold work with time of year. We will need a damn perfect h5 pass and an amped up storm with heavy precip. There are issues and lots of ways to fail. But I can see how it works too. 

[stormtracker]

GFS has a nice rainstorm at d10 now, where 12z had nothing.   I mean, I guess it's good that a storm is on the map.  P type could be adjusted

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS has a nice rainstorm at d10 now, where 12z had nothing.   I mean, I guess it's good that a storm is on the map.  P type could be adjusted

It’s just not cold enough.  March takes extra cold.  We don’t have that.  You know this.  Cold isn’t even nearby

[Chris78]

I was excited looking at h5 till I looked at the surface and realized there's really no cold air anywhere.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s just not cold enough.  March takes extra cold.  We don’t have that.  You know this.  Cold isn’t even nearby

You get a little bit stronger HP over the top and its a different ballgame altogether. Too far out to know specifics obviously. But we need a storm first to have any chance at all.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It’s just not cold enough.  March takes extra cold.  We don’t have that.  You know this.  Cold isn’t even nearby

Lets simplify all the detailed analysis. In a Nina, we usually manage to find the path to failure, even more so than usual.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Lets simplify all the detailed analysis. In a Nina, we usually manage to find the path to failure, even more so than usual.

Sounds like this winter has finally gotten you down. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS has a nice rainstorm at d10 now, where 12z had nothing.   I mean, I guess it's good that a storm is on the map.  P type could be adjusted

It was close. But the h5 low tracks too far south just a bit. It's disconnected from the cold. It's a bit too late to expect it to create its own cold in a mediocre thermal profile that far south this late. It takes either anomalous cold or a bomb or both to get snow at low elevations in southern VA and NC mid march.

Had that upper low tracked right for us and you add in the dynamic cooling to what was almost a cold enough profile and we would have a chance.  Then at 240 truncation hits and the upper low just goes poof and gets absorbed. Maybe. We still get some snow at the end.

like I said it will be a mission. We need a perfect h5 pass and an amped up dynamic system. Weak or less then perfect track won't work here. So it's a long shot. But it's not a no shot. 

[psuhoffman]

360 would have worked a few weeks ago. Not in mid march. Lol