Scraff Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude...did ya forget about 2014 AND 2015? Lol Drinking and heavy metal concerts definitely taking a toll on me this evening. Apologize for my snow forgetfulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: Gefs wasnt that bad. Still promising Yeah, reading over the posting from last night and I thought this storm was dead and buried. Haven't looked at anything yet except for a very quick glance at the GEFS, so maybe my opinion will change, but I thought the GEFS looked promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Pretty south with the Vort in Canada at 108 on the 6z No longer a closed low at 120. The vort in Canada is much further south and west. That was a major change at the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: 6z GFS is going to be a little better. Pretty shirt with the Vort in Canada at 108 Looks as if that closed low above the lakes is going to screw up the 500's for us on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Well I think I just closed my model tracking for the last time this year. Have a good summer everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 yep agree see you next winter, good day to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Overnight GEFS was fine. Very similar to the 12Z run though a touch slower and north with the closed low/trough at 500's and the coastal that forms. Trough and closed low are actually more conducive to tucking the coastal closer into the coast on its northward progression and we actually see that on the surface reflection. Though I would like these features to set up 50 miles or so farther south what it is showing puts us very much in the game and actually ups the ante a little for a longer duration event as we see the low run up the coast as opposed to seeing it move OTS before it runs north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well I think I just closed my model tracking for the last time this year. Have a good summer everyone. The winter highlight is a wind storm that shuts down DC. If some one told me that on 1 Dec I would have chuckled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The winter highlight is a wind storm that shuts down DC. If some one told me that on 1 Dec I would have chuckled. Better then nothing. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks as if that closed low above the lakes is going to screw up the 500's for us on this run. thats how I saw it as well. For this to work, we need good antecedent cold in place or great dynamics to manufacture our cold. Not sure how we get there with this one. Best shot to me is an early transfer to the coast, and a stall while column cools. Lord knows I'm rooting this one on, but it feels like I'm cheering for the practice squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Is the euro showing a snow storm for Georgia at 240 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Thought I would throw up the last 4 op runs of the GFS. Notice the first three are very similar with the features at 500 mb within the circles. Now look at the latest run at the bottom (06Z). The 06z GFS screws up the 500's as it absorbs the closed upper low south of the lakes into the pv feature in eastern Canada. We see this and our chances are pretty much done. Now at this point the 06z is on an island but looking at the previous 3 op runs I can see how this could possibly occur. Do I buy it? Probably not at this time. But knowing for sure is a whole different thing. Now the 06z will go off on its own on a occasion. Sometimes it is leading the way for future runs and sometimes not. But I find more often then not it is just flat out wrong. It will be interesting to see what the GEFS throws out. Will it follow the hive mentality (and follow the op run) that others have mentioned or will it stay the course from previous ensemble runs. Either way I am not sure it will give us much clarity on the validity of the 06z run. Only future runs will clue us in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, PDIII said: Is the euro showing a snow storm for Georgia at 240 hours? Nah, shows some spots of snow in Tenn. and Kentucky and traces in Miss. but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 March 12 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 06Z GEFS shows fairly good continuity with the 00Z though it did make a very slight move towards the 06Z op run solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 A little tucked in but not too bad. Hope lives. Tucked can work in march btw when these systems tend to wind up really tightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs still has a transfer off Va. Beach ...it still believes ..lol. Several nice hits esp for nw burbs You keep ninjaing me because I take time to upload the images lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs still has a transfer off Va. Beach ...it still believes ..lol. Several nice hits esp for nw burbs Great minds think alike...or we're both suffering from the same delusions. I still have your chair btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A little tucked in but not too bad. Hope lives. Tucked can work in march btw when these systems tend to wind up really tightly. 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs still has a transfer off Va. Beach ...it still believes ..lol. Several nice hits esp for nw burbs I found it interesting that some were baling after seeing the 06z op run. It looks as if could potentially be getting very interesting shortly. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z GEFS shows fairly good continuity with the 00Z though it did make a very slight move towards the 06Z op run solution. I'm not throwing the towel. That said things are bleeding the wrong way and we can see it. Pretty much all other guidance was bad already. And now the gfs is leaky. A bad op run. Slight trends the wrong way each run at h5. This is likely heading to fail. But it's close enough that a reversal of that trend is "possible" and wouldn't take much to get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Great minds think alike...or we're both suffering from the same delusions. I still have your chair btw. Still have his chair. Guess he wasn't to fond of it. I'll take it. It was a nice chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Still have his chair. Guess he wasn't to fond of it. I'll take it. It was a nice chair. Nice chair other than the PBR stains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not throwing the towel. That said things are bleeding the wrong way and we can see it. Pretty much all other guidance was bad already. And now the gfs is leaky. A bad op run. Slight trends the wrong way each run at h5. This is likely heading to fail. But it's close enough that a reversal of that trend is "possible" and wouldn't take much to get it right. We've been around long enough to know that things can and do go south on us quite often. So this very well could be a fail. That said I will keep tracking it until such time. Looking at the overnight EPS and it still has a bad look but it did look as if it made a slight move towards the GEFS. Could be nothing more then noise or just a movement towards a solution in between the GEFS and the EPS but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I found it interesting that some were baling after seeing the 06z op run. It looks as if could potentially be getting very interesting shortly. Fingers crossed. I don't blame anyone. It's been a long sucky year. Bailing is fine. I don't care what others do. It's the people that come in here to call us stupid and tracking a waste of time that irritate me. I find watching cars drive in circles a waste of time but I don't go into NASCAR message boards and tell people that. They like it. Good for them. Who am I to take a dump on their hobby. ETA: I respect the skill and knowledge it takes but racing just isn't my thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: We've been around long enough to know that things can and do go south on us quite often. So this very well could be a fail. That said I will keep tracking it until such time. Looking at the overnight EPS and it still has a bad look but it did look as if it made a slight move towards the GEFS. Could be nothing more then noise or just a movement towards a solution in between the GEFS and the EPS but you never know. That's my guess how this ends and that probably won't work. But a compromise could be close enough that some late favorable breaks go our way. I'm also interested in what happens after. Even with a fail scenario a clipper could dive down the back side behind the march 7th storm and those can amplify this time of year. Beyond that march 12 still holds my attention as a setup with potential. The gfs and ggem are very close to a big storm there. Both just slightly north. But that's a west to east thing not a miller b. That could trend south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's my guess how this ends and that probably won't work. But a compromise could be close enough that some late favorable breaks go our way. I'm also interested in what happens after. Even with a fail scenario a clipper could dive down the back side behind the march 7th storm and those can amplify this time of year. Beyond that march 12 still holds my attention as a setup with potential. The gfs and ggem are very close to a big storm there. Both just slightly north. But that's a west to east thing not a miller b. That could trend south some. Granted I haven't looked to hard beyond our day 5/6 storm but from what I have seen it looks to be very active with systems in the ball park for possible snow. The next couple of weeks could get interesting. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6z gefs was a forum divider. Weenie run western VA and north of D.C. Not so much south and east of DCA. It really bumped up snow for day 5 for Baltimore north. Weeniest run yet for the northern 1/3. For the D.C. area it was only a slight improvement over 0z. There is another bump in snow from day 8-13. It's seeing both the clipper idea and the wave around the 12th. Scattering of hits for both ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Nice chair other than the PBR stains. those aren't PBR stains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vasnowboy Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 To PSU, CAPE, Bob Chill and those that make this wx forum come to life thank you! I read the remarks and learn a bit more. I’m a lifelong DC resident about to hit 50 yrs of age and think my first wx memory was Hurricane Agnes. I’m a snow lover first and foremost ever since I was 7 or 8. PSU thanks for keeping this winter wx hope on life support. Each winter seems to have a personality of it’s own, this winter is sure strange....the discussions explain why it’s so hard for snow to fall here this year. A 4” snow really would be wild if it occurred this March. Will end as I started and say thanks and will keep the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z gefs was a forum divider. Weenie run western VA and north of D.C. Not so much south and east of DCA. It really bumped up snow for day 5 for Baltimore north. Weeniest run yet for the northern 1/3. For the D.C. area it was only a slight improvement over 0z. There is another bump in snow from day 8-13. It's seeing both the clipper idea and the wave around the 12th. Scattering of hits for both ideas. I noticed, but I didn't want to bring it up. Some nice hits for up in our local. But the models have plenty of time to screw us over as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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