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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


Cobalt

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

despite ensembles.....the operational has been the best model this year. How many weenie ensemble runs have we had....where the OP was like "wtf..you talking about" and in the end...look how much snow we have gotten. The OP GFS except for a few runs has been extremely stingy with digital snow this winter

I'll call TOD when I think it's time. Yea we're on life support but there is still some brain activity. 

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42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well...if this really is it and we end up going two consecutive winters without a WSW...you gotta think we're due next winter...I don't know the records, but...when was the last time we went three straight without a WSW event?

Didn't we have a WSW last March with the Sleetfest for most of us... excluding Carroll and Very Northern Baltimore County.

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32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Didn't we have a WSW last March with the Sleetfest for most of us... excluding Carroll and Very Northern Baltimore County.

That didn’t verify in the beltways. We haven’t had a verified warning level snow event in those areas since the blizzard of 2016. It has been two years one month and counting. 

Hell, we haven’t even been close to such an event since then. This stretch has sucked hard. 

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To the extent we can analyze an op run 5+ days out, I'm not sure the 18z GFS was all bad.  Clearly it wasn't great, but it looks like the ridging in northern Canada was stronger, and the troughs over CONUS are farther south.  My understanding is that we want a system to amplify south of us, so doesn't that help us to some extent? 

For example, the H5 anomalies on March 11 from the 12z and 18z runs are below.  ETA:  This is actually 06z vs 18z, but a similar southward shift can be see earlier in the run when you compare 18z with 12z.

xX8sGMA.gif

The wave in the midwest comes closer to snowing on us at 18z than 06z.  Of course it's too early to analyze individual waves, but all things considered aren't there some advantages to the 18z look around that time?

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