Interstate Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, gfs is bleeding. Not what we want to see inside of 4 days. I was pretty much expecting it after having no support from other globals except the jma. Maybe the gfs and euro reverse roles and it ends up being a wash. Otherwise it doesnt look to end well. maybe it still works out... maybe it is just slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Ugh. Whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 GFS took another step backward. Writing is on the wall with next weeks threat. Ridging out west is in a decent position, but 500 is too far north and any coastal transfer will be much too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Most useless nao...where is the southern track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Like clock work ^^.. up two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Yea...I guess I'm not understanding why the -nao isn't forcing these storms farther under us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: maybe it still works out... maybe it is just slower? We need the ull to dig further south or we miss the coastal. Could still be in the game for upper level energy moving through but that's just table scraps and won't do much. The real game is a stalled low that gets captured at our latitude. The 0z run isn't close to that happening this run. Were starting to see convergence now too and it's not the kind that makes us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Most useless nao...where is the southern track? We never got a southern trend on the models and Euro finally decides to beat the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, tplbge said: We never got a southern trend on the models and Euro our winter finally decides to beat the GFS. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 GGEM not gonna do it either tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, psurulz said: Yea...I guess I'm not understanding why the -nao isn't forcing these storms farther under us? We need to low going on right now to move towards the 50/50 area and create confluence. Instead it moves due east and creates ridging between the 2 features. This allows the second one to not get forced south of us. It's a dance. A -nao can't fix everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Well I guess my flowers are safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Another crossroads....another 3 step back scenario. The negative nao has done nothing to help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 GFS tries to phase. Pulls it to the gulf of Maine, then the line snaps and the NS takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Gfs ensembles useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs ensembles useless We already knew that. They follow the op right or wrong. I said last run that they don't add any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to low going on right now to move towards the 50/50 area and create confluence. Instead it moves due east and creates ridging between the 2 features. This allows the second one to not get forced south of us. It's a dance. A -nao can't fix everything. So essentially...this current storm screwed us over after all...great. Snowing everywhere but...north and south, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 AM I the only one that thought this was amusing? NS hocks a loogie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to low going on right now to move towards the 50/50 area and create confluence. Instead it moves due east and creates ridging between the 2 features. This allows the second one to not get forced south of us. It's a dance. A -nao can't fix everything. God I wish we could repeat this post every 20 minutes. I'm tired of the nao complaints as if a negative nao is supposed to guarantee a good track. I think a 50/50 is more important and it's missing. 10 days ago the guidance had a strong 50/50 representation and that was why we got so excited. The actual pattern lacked. Maybe the blocking is too severe and shunts the storm too far south. Or it retrogrades too much. But we never get a good 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: God I wish we could repeat this post every 20 minutes. I'm tired of the nao complaints as if a negative nao is supposed to guarantee a good track. I think a 50/50 is more important and it's missing. 10 days ago the guidance had a strong 50/50 representation and that was why we got so excited. The actual pattern lacked. Maybe the blocking is too severe and shunts the storm too far south. Or it retrogrades too much. But we never get a good 50/50. I'm not sure this was the case....iirc a nice 50/50 signal was very hit and miss on LR guidance. 9/10 runs showed the negatives south of an optimal 50/50...we all just hoped that smoothing was hedging things south. Instead, the southern area of the neg anoms in the atl seem to be what is actually occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Looks like another great track for jan 12 thanks to our wonderful new pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 All things to consider, we are in that time of the year where we need rates, precip at night, less than marginal temps to get things done in early to mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: All things to consider, we are in that time of the year where we need rates, precip at night, less than marginal temps to get things done in early to mid March. Careful commenting on sun angle gets certain posters pretty pissy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Careful commenting on sun angle gets certain posters pretty pissy! Well it’s part of the science. Really don’t care if it gets people pissy. It’s reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Gefs wasnt that bad. Still promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018030200&fh=138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018030200&fh=138 If you like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 If you like rainNot worried about p type yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Ji said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018030200&fh=138 Moon angle will scrub that one too. What’s official time of death on winter? April 2010 onward? I mean minus one amazing day of 2016 I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: Moon angle will scrub that one too. What’s official time of death on winter? April 2010 onward? I mean minus one amazing day of 2016 I guess? Dude...did ya forget about 2014 AND 2015? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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