Chris78 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That is VERY impressive consistency from range... Unfortunately impressive consistency and impressive accuracy are two different things. I am not sure consistency ALLWAYS is in indicator of accuracy. It troubles me that the euro in general supported the gfs type of setup a few days ago also and lost it. If the euro had never had it I would be more inclined to believe its just missing something. But the euro has been awful at times lately so... Honestly not sure here. Not gonna pretend to know which is right but I suspect we will find out soon. The point of divergence will only be 36 hours out with the 0z run tonight. One would think they have to start to converge on the real solution wrt the track of the upper low soon. My guess would be the Euro and GFS meet in the middle which unfortunately won't do us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: My guess would be the Euro and GFS meet in the middle which unfortunately won't do us any good. So instead of one of them being wrong you bet that they're both wrong? I find that less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're still way out there in time for ops (6-7 days) so big differences are completely normal and far more common than everything looking the same. Once we get inside of 4-5 days there will be convergence. I'm not sure how long you've been tracking winter storms but any lead time longer than 4 days is prone to vastly different solutions across guidance so what we're seeing right now is pretty much par for the course. Many of our storms in the past didn't even show up until they were just 4 days out. The concerning thing right now is 2 pretty reliable ensemble suites are vastly different in the medium range. That actually isn't that common. We're going to see one of them cave to the other pretty quickly. Ensembles are rarely if ever at complete odds with each other inside of 5 days. Right now the EPS/GEFS are at complete odds with each other. Yea the ensembles is the crazy part...having op runs all over is not. But I am also kind of shocked at how early they go off on separate tangents. It was obvious to be my hour 60 on the 12z run that the GFS was not caving to the euro when it was still digging the upper energy southeast into the Rockies when the euro does a little pinwheel then takes off northeast from Oregon. That difference happens REALLY early on in the cycle not way out. What I think is more common is a slow bleed of chaos leading to vastly different ideas by day 5. Not for the models to go off on completely different evolutions of some pretty major large scale pattern features like an entire trough either digging or lifting out of the Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: So instead of one of them being wrong you bet that they're both wrong? I find that less likely. Why? We see models converge all the time as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Well for sure I would avoid this Friday and Saturday. Looks windy as all get out and maybe snowy up in NJ but at the least a miserable day to drive with a trailer. After that is really too far out to know about specific days. There are multiple threats for storms in the area between the 7th and the 14th. Right now the timing of the waves is around the 7th, 11th and 13tg but timing things at that range can change and that's if there are even storms at all. You really can't do specifics like that past a few days out. Sorry if that doesn't help. Thank you. It does help. I did delete my original post as I did not want to junk up this thread, but thank you for giving me some insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: My guess would be the Euro and GFS meet in the middle which unfortunately won't do us any good. That thought bothers me too... historically by far the best verification is to take a GEFS/EPS compromise. Historically the compromise was weighted more towards the euro. Maybe that is no longer true but any compromise is probably bad unless its 90% GFS and that troubles me some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the ensembles is the crazy part...having op runs all over is not. But I am also kind of shocked at how early they go off on separate tangents. It was obvious to be my hour 60 on the 12z run that the GFS was not caving to the euro when it was still digging the upper energy southeast into the Rockies when the euro does a little pinwheel then takes off northeast from Oregon. That difference happens REALLY early on in the cycle not way out. What I think is more common is a slow bleed of chaos leading to vastly different ideas by day 5. Not for the models to go off on completely different evolutions of some pretty major large scale pattern features like an entire trough either digging or lifting out of the Pacific NW. Yea, this one is a bit of a head scratcher. My gut says fail because it's just one of those kinds of years. But that's a total guess. There are compelling cases for both the GEFS and EPS right now. I know which one I want to be right but I'm not making any calls because I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this one is a bit of a head scratcher. My gut says fail because it's just one of those kinds of years. But that's a total guess. There are compelling cases for both the GEFS and EPS right now. I know which one I want to be right but I'm not making any calls because I have no idea. Yea I was feeling pretty good after the GFS came out and trended even better...but then the euro went the wrong way too overall...maybe not the op but the EPS for sure did. I expected more of a cave by the euro. We are getting kind of close for it to fail this horribly and like you said its hard to ignore our tendency to fail this year. BUT...both of those are mostly bias. Historical bias of the euro over the gfs when in reality lately the gfs has probably handled this type of situation better and regency bias with the fail thing. But I feel the same way...right or wrong. At least we will know soon, probably 0z tonight me thinks. I doubt either is bad enough to carry on with a bogus major H5 feature evolution once its inside 48 hours like this. But I leave the opportunity for one of them to show a new level of fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 FWIW.... 18z NAM at hr 84 h5 looks somewhat like the 12z GFS h5 at hr 90... a little bit slower though IMO with the digging SE part. The closed h5 low in NW Canada is farther SE on the 18z NAM than the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW.... 18z NAM at hr 84 h5 looks somewhat like the 12z GFS h5 at hr 90... a little bit slower though IMO with the digging SE part. The closed h5 low in NW Canada is farther SE on the 18z NAM than the 12z GFS It's in between imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's in between imo So basically we got three different paths things could go here...and only one of the three gets us a win.. EPS solution (too far north?) Total miss In between GFS/GEFS and EPS...no good GFS: Right on target...win With the way this winter has gone, those odds aren't promising...but we gotta hope, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Bob/PSU With the GFS/Euro H5 map... how are they handling today's storm on the H5 map at 120? Which one has it further east in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 gfs coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: gfs coming in hot Hot is a four letter word around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 She's lurking real healthy, corn fed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Gfs doesn’t dig enough...late transfer...not a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yeah, low is gonna form farther north. Oh well. On to 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: She's lurking real healthy, corn fed Congrats new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This the possible "in between" solution? (The metaphorical middle between the GEFS and EPS?, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, low is gonna form farther north. Oh well. On to 0z! It's still a pretty good ull pass. I'd take my chances with h5 progression like the 18z gfs any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 At this lead...I'll take this bowling ball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's still a pretty good ull pass. I'd take my chances with h5 progression like the 18z gfs any day. we need this man...it looks like if we can get a good pass and the low is 100 miles south of 18z gfs...its gonna crawl/stall..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Still end up with wrap around snow lol. Not a terrible run, and certainly not as bad of a run as first thought. Let's just hope the surface depiction wasn't the GFS trending towards disaster. Guess we'll find out in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's still a pretty good ull pass. I'd take my chances with h5 progression like the 18z gfs any day. I was about to say that it was a good ULL pass.. but looks like as other have said the coastal gets going too late/forms too late for us. Lets see what the GEFS say... if they decide to be different from the OP lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks a bit like DEC 2003, but it's not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 For what it's worth the 18z ICON took a step back at h5. Further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: we need this man...it looks like if we can get a good pass and the low is 100 miles south of 18z gfs...its gonna crawl/stall..... Worrying about surface details right now should be at the bottom of our list. Lol. We should all be only worried about the fact that not other guidance looks like the gfs/gefs in the upper levels. I'm surprised the 18z gfs looked as good as it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Still a good look. If the surface low had developed 100 miles further south it would of been a mauling. Pa gets crushed on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I was about to say that it was a good ULL pass.. but looks like as other have said the coastal gets going too late/forms too late for us. Lets see what the GEFS say... if they decide to be different from the OP lol Please no! Because yeah that's just what we would need...MORE model chaos! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's still a pretty good ull pass. I'd take my chances with h5 progression like the 18z gfs any day. 13 minutes ago, Ji said: we need this man...it looks like if we can get a good pass and the low is 100 miles south of 18z gfs...its gonna crawl/stall..... Gfs still doing some weird fujiwara with a low diving out of Quebec. Without that it might bomb/stall further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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