Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: yep...i just posted a map showing the GFS at 120 vs Euro at 144...and the ULL looks almost identical and in same place Yea, I'm feeling better now after thinking it through. The 12z GFS actually trended south of its previous runs. That's the big thing that grabbed my attention. Now the euro is trying to do the same thing just not nearly as sweet. Hopefully the EPS trends better/south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is there truth to the idea thrown around by a few that the GFS family has been "schooling the other globals this season at this range"? No. Looking at verification scores, it had a good January, when it pulled up into Ukie territory. Dec and Feb were not so great. If you look at 6-day verification scores over the last 30 days, it has been well behind the Euro, UKMET, and GGEM. It looks like it has even fallen behind the NAVGEM over the last month. The GEFS have similarly had a rough month. Looking at individual events, it did relatively well with January 17 and the Super Bowl ice storm, but it was slower to catch on with December 9, January 4, and February 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Although the run kinda sucked verbatim, I'm encouraged with the euro meeting in the middle with the 0z euro op and 12z gfs op. We have plenty of time so it's not like we need big things to happen right away. My guess is the EPS continues to make things very interesting. We'll know shortly. Thanks, you believe the ultimate outcome is based on the NAO block to the North, any weaknesses in it , and how it moves over the next several days ? I am guessing that's the key, but I figure the exiting storm from tomorrow and Saturday will have a role as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: No. Looking at verification scores, it had a good January, when it pulled up into Ukie territory. Dec and Feb were not so great. If you look at 6-day verification scores over the last 30 days, it has been well behind the Euro, UKMET, and GGEM. It looks like it has even fallen behind the NAVGEM over the last month. The GEFS have similarly had a rough month. Looking at individual events, it did relatively well with January 17 and the Super Bowl ice storm, but it was slower to catch on with December 9, January 4, and February 17th. Scores aside, for specific northern stream shortwaves in the med range, the gfs has been really good. It's been first to pick up trends (the wrong way but accurate nonetheless). The euro has consistently been over amping in the med range with northern stream shortwaves. Nearly every single wrapped up storm on the euro in the medium range has trended weaker/flatter into the short range. Once we hit 72 hours the euro has done really well with the majority of events. Especially in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Scores aside, for specific northern stream shortwaves in the med range, the gfs has been really good. It's been first to pick up trends (the wrong way but accurate nonetheless). The euro has consistently been over amping in the med range with northern stream shortwaves. Nearly every single wrapped up storm on the euro in the medium range has trended weaker/flatter into the short range. Once we hit 72 hours the euro has done really well with the majority of events. Especially in Feb. That could be. The GFS has been steady with this system, and it looks like the other models shifted towards it at 12z. But one of the things I've noticed is that when the GFS has been off this year, it has usually had a more suppressed / SE track than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I still contest that this is too far north, does it mean a quicker deepening and slower moving system in the next 36 hours? Just knowing from experience something will have to smooth out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 At this point we are in the game for a threat inside of 10 days. That's a win for now. I like the general trend and with the blocking in place we could score a nice late season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 SO wait...Euro? I'm guessing it wasn't that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ji said: disappointing....the will be determined in the next 48-72 hours i think as thats where the GFS and ECMWF starts to go their seperate ways They diverge at 48 hours from the 12z run. Both bring the energy responsible for the threat onshore around the same place in Oregon. But the gfs then digs southeast from there before turning east northeast over the plains. The euro begins to lift immediately and this ends up way further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: SO wait...Euro? I'm guessing it wasn't that good? sounds like it trended in the right direction. it's not one of those models that jumps crazy from run to run, so an incremental step seems about right. i'm ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 EPS wants absolutely nothing to do with what the GFS/GEFS is serving up. Not the type of run any of us were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS wants absolutely nothing to do with what the GFS/GEFS is serving up. Not the type of run any of us were hoping for. Yeah it’s concerning. I can’t even see one member that delivers a GFS type solution. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS wants absolutely nothing to do with what the GFS/GEFS is serving up. Not the type of run any of us were hoping for. it looks like 12z JMA says screw the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS wants absolutely nothing to do with what the GFS/GEFS is serving up. Not the type of run any of us were hoping for. Bob, I will actually be on my way up to CT next week from Wed-Sun. I will be keeping a very close eye on this thing. Some of the runs look ominous for you guys and on up to the northeast. Already secured a 4x4 rental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: it looks like 12z JMA says screw the euro? If the GFS ends up being right, this might be the one of if not the biggest medium range Euro/EPS bust I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: If the GFS ends up being right, this might be the one of if not the biggest medium range Euro/EPS bust I've ever seen. Mid month Jan event was a big bust for Euro/EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ah c'mon...Welp, per usual, model wars....except this time it's the EURO and it's affiliates on the outside. GFS has been Dr. No all winter...now all it finally starts to say yes and now the EURO says no....mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Mid month Jan event was a big bust for Euro/EPS I don't remember the specifics on that bust but right now the op and all 51 ens members don't show a single solution like the GFS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't remember the specifics on that bust but right now the op and all 51 ens members don't show a single solution like the GFS/GEFS. WOW that's a seriously big divergence That in itself is a curious anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't remember the specifics on that bust but right now the op and all 51 ens members don't show a single solution like the GFS/GEFS. yikes....lol. Does EPS have anything after the 6-7 disaster. Again, very concerning because the storm will be almost in NAM range soon lol. In fact, it already is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't remember the specifics on that bust but right now the op and all 51 ens members don't show a single solution like the GFS/GEFS. With my cup half empty, you could then make the point right now based on the superior physics of the Euro OP and its ensemble members that the GFS and the Jama are both simply wrong. After 4 runs in a row for the GFS if it's wrong it must be what they call a drop out on the verification scores. I've seen Ryan Maue post those and sometimes the Euro is there but seems mostly the GFS to lose grip with weather modeling accuracy. The consistency of the GFS to some may feel it is going to pull a coup. but we know better. Makes you think about the JAMA, but still, without the Euro , or at the least some similiar EPS members like the GFS there is no reason for hope just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Scores aside, for specific northern stream shortwaves in the med range, the gfs has been really good. It's been first to pick up trends (the wrong way but accurate nonetheless). The euro has consistently been over amping in the med range with northern stream shortwaves. Nearly every single wrapped up storm on the euro in the medium range has trended weaker/flatter into the short range. Once we hit 72 hours the euro has done really well with the majority of events. Especially in Feb. I know no two systems are alike but check out the 12z run on Saturday the 24th, Euro showed a 988 closed low in in central Illinois for Fridays event. Today? 1003. I am sure this means nothing but just throwing a little more credence to the overamp in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: yikes....lol. Does EPS have anything after the 6-7 disaster. Again, very concerning because the storm will be almost in NAM range soon lol. In fact, it already is Typical random splattering of hits in the d10-12 range. Overall the last 2 EPS runs have been uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Typical random splattering of hits in the d10-12 range. Overall the last 2 EPS runs have been uninspiring. We just had the best gefs run of the winter and the worst EPS considering potential. I'm less bothered by the euro itself being the other side but seeing the EPS go the wrong way the last 48 hours does bug me. If the gfs wins this it should be the end of the "king" talk for a while. The euro has had some big ticket fails lately and this would be the worst. It's only 48 hours out that the gfs and euro go their separate ways. ETA: the hive mind issue with the gefs inside 10 days also bugs me because it makes the support of the gefs much less meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The eps/Euro combo is very disapointing. Definitely gives me pause. But the GFS has been sniffing this storm out for some time. Here are a couple images from last week for the same time period . One from the 2/23/18z And the 2/24/00z runs. If the GFS wins it would be very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Typical random splattering of hits in the d10-12 range. Overall the last 2 EPS runs have been uninspiring. This appears to me mostly NS driven, no? And the GFS has always done well irt to NS? And the Euro tends to overamp things? Im guessing the solution is probably smack in the middle. Do we congratulate New England now or wait a couple of days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We just had the best gefs run of the winter and the worst EPS considering potential. I'm less bothered by the euro itself being the other side but seeing the EPS go the wrong way the last 48 hours does bug me. If the gfs wins this it should be the end of the "king" talk for a while. The euro has had some big ticket fails lately and this would be the worst. It's only 48 hours out that the gfs and euro go their separate ways. ETA: the hive mind issue with the gefs inside 10 days also bugs me because it makes the support of the gefs much less meaningful. Well...if The EURO/EPS is right...then we should expect GFS should start to back off in the next couple days? I mean, certainly things can't stay this far apart (for better or worse) for too much longer, right? (And it's equally perplexing seeing as the other JV models trended towards the GFS today instead of away from it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The eps/Euro combo is very disapointing. Definitely gives me pause. But the GFS has been sniffing this storm out for some time. Here are a couple images from last week for the same time period . One from the 2/23/18z And the 2/24/00z runs. If the GFS wins it would be very impressive. That is VERY impressive consistency from range... Unfortunately impressive consistency and impressive accuracy are two different things. I am not sure consistency ALLWAYS is in indicator of accuracy. It troubles me that the euro in general supported the gfs type of setup a few days ago also and lost it. If the euro had never had it I would be more inclined to believe its just missing something. But the euro has been awful at times lately so... Honestly not sure here. Not gonna pretend to know which is right but I suspect we will find out soon. The point of divergence will only be 36 hours out with the 0z run tonight. One would think they have to start to converge on the real solution wrt the track of the upper low soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well...if The EURO/EPS is right...then we should expect GFS should start to back off in the next couple days? I mean, certainly things can't stay this far apart (for better or worse) for too much longer, right? (And it's equally perplexing seeing as the other JV models trended towards the GFS today instead of away from it!) We're still way out there in time for ops (6-7 days) so big differences are completely normal and far more common than everything looking the same. Once we get inside of 4-5 days there will be convergence. I'm not sure how long you've been tracking winter storms but any lead time longer than 4 days is prone to vastly different solutions across guidance so what we're seeing right now is pretty much par for the course. Many of our storms in the past didn't even show up until they were just 4 days out. The concerning thing right now is 2 pretty reliable ensemble suites are vastly different in the medium range. That actually isn't that common. We're going to see one of them cave to the other pretty quickly. Ensembles are rarely if ever at complete odds with each other inside of 5 days. Right now the EPS/GEFS are at complete odds with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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