psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: heh, GEFS is a SWEET run man... Excellent run. Hive mentality but that's now 3/4 good runs using my super ensemble method. Plus it's the first time it made it onto an on hour run. That said the other guidance is being stubborn. U.K. Is a mess. But this feels like a gfs win coming imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wow, that is pretty good Most members pop to transfer over NC. That + the ULL pass = legit potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Excellent run. Hive mentality but that's now 3/4 good runs using my super ensemble method. Plus it's the first time it made it onto an on hour run. That said the other guidance is being stubborn. U.K. Is a mess. But this feels like a gfs win coming imo. J(v)MA on board ETA: yesterday's run.... Maybe today is better. We'll know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS mean precip for the 6th-8th window is .8". Very tight cluster. I'm expecting at least a partial cave with the euro. Seeing the GFS hold a similar solution 4 runs in a row in the med range has been working out pretty much all winter. All the previous times were unfavorable for us but the GFS has lead the way enough this year to take it seriously. Yeah but every time the Euro caved to the GFS it has sucker punched us. So I expect the opposite this time. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Most members pop to transfer over NC. That + the ULL pass = legit potential Its been a while seeing potential like this, however, I refuse to get optimistic until I see the Euro cave . GEFS + Jama + GFS do have me looking forward to seeing how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This looks closer to the good analogs. Notice the ridging west of Alaska holds on better. We get one more threat after this day 9-12 then it's over once the epo ridge retrogrades too much and the Pacific goes to hell again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 heh, GEFS is a SWEET run man...Is there truth to the idea thrown around by a few that the GFS family has been "schooling the other globals this season at this range"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This looks closer to the good analogs. Notice the ridging west of Alaska holds on better. We get one more threat after this day 9-12 then it's over once the epo ridge retrogrades too much and the Pacific goes to hell again. Very true, and I recall reading about how we might get this look 3 weeks ago where the Pac might have a 7 to 12 day period where it becomes less hostile and we would even get some improvements that could favor East Coast storm generation off the Southest or Mid Atlantic areas. Seems to match MJO phase 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is there truth to the idea thrown around by a few that the GFS family has been "schooling the other globals this season at this range"? The GFS/GEFS has done pretty well in the med range with northern stream stuff but it's barfed at times like all other models. Seeing 4 runs in a row showing a very similar progression does lend some confidence in the idea but until the euro makes a move in the same direction I won't be sold on anything. The euro did excellent with the last snow event here. Pretty much schooled all guidance leading into that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 One last pretty panel before the euro destroys our hopes and dreams in 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Damn, 12z gefs is another straight weenie run. Upping the potential with the d10-12 period. Another splattering of big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The JMA is in between the GFS and UK. Jumps from the lakes to off of Jersey. I dont have 6 hour panels but I think the 500 pass is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro through 96 is still quite North of the GFS with H5 through SD compared to southern Nebraska on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, 12z gefs is another straight weenie run. Upping the potential with the d10-12 period. Another splattering of big hits. Not shocked after seeing the h5 progression that's why I mentioned a second threat in my post above. If that day 5 look it right we do have a 5-7 day window and more then one threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro through 96 is still quite North of the GFS with H5 through SD compared to southern Nebraska on the GFS 120 has it in Southern Minn. compared to the GFS which is in cental Illinois. Quite the battle at only 120 leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Unfortunately the GEPS still doesn't like the event in 6 days. It throws us a bone (one very nice bone), but other than that it's not good. Mean H5 not nearly as nice as the GFS. The good news is that it doesn't think the event in 6 days is our last chance. It actually gives mby more snow after 180 hours than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: 120 has it in Southern Minn. compared to the GFS which is in cental Illinois. Quite the battle at only 120 leads No cave to the GFS coming this run. Euro is pretty steady with its own idea. Very different with heights over the top and handling the departing low. 12z isn't going to provide any confidence one way or the other it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No cave to the GFS coming this run. Euro is pretty steady with its own idea. Very different with heights over the top and handling the departing low. 12z isn't going to provide any confidence one way or the other it seems. Looks like it will end up pretty similar to Fridays event lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No cave to the GFS coming this run. Euro is pretty steady with its own idea. Very different with heights over the top and handling the departing low. 12z isn't going to provide any confidence one way or the other it seems. I'm actually going to retract some of this statement....Euro actually does trend towards the GFS @ h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Looks like it will end up pretty similar to Fridays event lol. disappointing....the will be determined in the next 48-72 hours i think as thats where the GFS and ECMWF starts to go their seperate ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It looks like the Euro is trying to jump around Norfolk right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm actually going to retract some of this statement....Euro actually does trend towards the GFS @ h5. Was about to say that the position of the low was further south than it's previous run...hopefully a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm actually going to retract some of this statement....Euro actually does trend towards the GFS @ h5. agree...if you compare the 00z euro and 12z euro...the 12z euro looks more like GFS than it did the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm actually going to retract some of this statement....Euro actually does trend towards the GFS @ h5. Bob, is so and if there is a potential of a continued trend at h5 towards the Jama and the GFS, would the EPS in a few hours indicate that better than the OP ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: disappointing....the will be determined in the next 48-72 hours i think as thats where the GFS and ECMWF starts to go their seperate ways Ninja'd by Bob but, its closer to what the GFS shows so thats a win, albeit small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I think Euro is slower but looks more like GFS. Here is GFS at 120 Euro at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: disappointing....the will be determined in the next 48-72 hours i think as thats where the GFS and ECMWF starts to go their seperate ways I'm not that disappointed honestly. 0z totally sucked. 12z closed off the ball but it's further north and too late. It was actually a trend towards the GFS just not getting the job done. 0z is a disaster: 12z is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not that disappointed honestly. 0z totally sucked. 12z closed off the ball but it's further north and too late. It was actually a trend towards the GFS just not getting the job done. 0z is a disaster: 12z is better yep...i just posted a map showing the GFS at 120 vs Euro at 144...and the ULL looks almost identical and in same place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, is so and if there is a potential of a continued trend at h5 towards the Jama and the GFS, would the EPS in a few hours indicate that better than the OP ? Thanks Although the run kinda sucked verbatim, I'm encouraged with the euro meeting in the middle with the 0z euro op and 12z gfs op. We have plenty of time so it's not like we need big things to happen right away. My guess is the EPS continues to make things very interesting. We'll know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I think Euro is slower but looks more like GFS. Here is GFS at 120 Euro at 144 Looks to me like the euro's weakness east of Hudson Bay is enough to give a tug on the ull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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