Cobalt Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Yeah that’s my question. Sub 990 low off the Delmarva and such a weak precipitation field? Why? Was gonna ask that too, but at this point out it probably doesn't matter enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wonder if we've ever snowed with a +500dm -PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ok...I'm ok with this at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Maybe I am looking at something wrong... but everything south and east of DC has temps in the mid 30's pasty snow Don't worry about the thermals for now... just enjoy the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Maybe I am looking at something wrong... but everything south and east of DC has temps in the mid 30's Cant really rely on temps this far out. That is heavy precip in a rapidly intensifying storm. It would most likely be heavy wet snow IMO. IF the GFS is even right with the track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Meanwhile CMC wants no part in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 in a row and now the icon does something similar. Euro cave on deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's sweet. Slightly southeast of where I would want it. Perfect for D.C. Gfs still under doing precip on the west side with the system imo. Typical gfs problem. But it's still too far out to stress those kinds of details. This run is a win imo. Thought the same thing. But to get it in the optimal spot for us the cities might suffer. I will take what it has because we will make it up with our better ratio snows of 7-1 vs. the cities 5-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I would like to lock up the track on that model run. maybe a slightly further south vort pass but hey lets not parse the details at this lead lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 4 in a row and now the icon does something similar. Euro cave on deck Did the EPS come a little closer to caving last night? (I thought they did, but that was just to my untrained eye, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 CMC and ICON took a step towards the GFS. They both develop the surface low off the Delmarva peninusla at around hour 156. Neither had that before. The GFS is the only one to capture the low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Thought the same thing. But to get it in the optimal spot for us the cities might suffer. I will take what it has because we will make it up with our better ratio snows of 7-1 vs. the cities 5-1. We're talking 50 miles so I don't care at this range. Plus I think it's vastly under doing the western side of the storm as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, kurtstack said: I would like to lock up the track on that model run. maybe a slightly further south vort pass but hey lets not parse the details at this lead lol. That h5 pass is perfect for DC any further south and you risk a 2013 type issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Gfs does some weird fujiwara with an upper low pinwheeling south out of Nova Scotia and that pulls the system east before north. Remeve that and it could have been epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Great consistency for something to track that COULD Be real......... queue Lucy??? Agree on western extent of precip shield and weird interaction with Nova Scotia low or whatever happened there! Like the trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It should be. I doubt what it did to swing it out before the capture. Good call PSU! I remember reading that early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 35 minutes ago, peribonca said: Meanwhile CMC wants no part in this GGEM still tracking the h5 low hundreds of miles north of the GFS and the divergence happens EARLY in the period. One of these two camps is going to fail miserably and from relatively short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Not going to happen unless Pacific changes and Pacific is not going to change. This one is going way north folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That h5 pass is perfect for DC any further south and you risk a 2013 type issue. Based on a blend of all guidance, missing south seems lower on the list of things to worry about than too far north. I know you know this. GFS is either going to punch another win on the score card or it's an epic tease. Also completely agree about worrying about details on precip shield etc. We're so far away from having that discussion that I won't even partake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not going to happen unless Pacific changes and Pacific is not going to change. This one is going way north folks If the euro is right yea... but you've been sure tomorrow's storm was going to be south and now the one that might go south you think is going north... What are you using to make these determinations? The NAO index alone is NOT the only determinate of a low track. Looking at indices does not tell the whole picture... its how all the specific factors and waves play together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GEFS actually shifted a little south with the ULL through 132. This is starting to feel kinda legit here...I'm slipping down the rabbit hole and nobody can save me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS actually shifted a little south with the ULL through 132. This is starting to feel kinda legit here...I'm slipping down the rabbit hole and nobody can save me... Did you notice the low out in the Atlantic shifted closer to the 50/50 region as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 FWIW, UK takes a LP over Chicago at 120 and has a 999 off LI at 144. 500 vort maps don't go out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Did you notice the low out in the Atlantic shifted closer to the 50/50 region as well? yep....then entire setup is telling me to get my shovel ready...and it's under 7 days...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ukie H5 looks more like the GGEM than GFS at day 6. H5 low actually looks a little north of the GGEM, and the coastal forms farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the euro is right yea... but you've been sure tomorrow's storm was going to be south and now the one that might go south you think is going north... What are you using to make these determinations? The NAO index alone is NOT the only determinate of a low track. Looking at indices does not tell the whole picture... its how all the specific factors and waves play together. This looks right to you? You all describe the pattern general and direction and such like that is the issue, the issue is about 50-150 miles always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 heh, GEFS is a SWEET run man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Very supportive of a good track and heavy precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GEFS mean precip for the 6th-8th window is .8". Very tight cluster. I'm expecting at least a partial cave with the euro. Seeing the GFS hold a similar solution 4 runs in a row in the med range has been working out pretty much all winter. All the previous times were unfavorable for us but the GFS has lead the way enough this year to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: heh, GEFS is a SWEET run man... Wow, that is pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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