psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: I have a question but not sure if it will be ok to post here. It does have to do with March long term forecast and as I am not as proficient I need some help. If I should move this to another thread just let me know. I am looking to bring a pony down from NJ for my daughter in March and am wanting to know what the next few weeks may hold with any storms. We hate driving the trailer in bad weather so want to avoid any nasty stuff like snow. If anyone is willing to help you can send me a message if we want to keep this thread clean. Thanks! Well for sure I would avoid this Friday and Saturday. Looks windy as all get out and maybe snowy up in NJ but at the least a miserable day to drive with a trailer. After that is really too far out to know about specific days. There are multiple threats for storms in the area between the 7th and the 14th. Right now the timing of the waves is around the 7th, 11th and 13tg but timing things at that range can change and that's if there are even storms at all. You really can't do specifics like that past a few days out. Sorry if that doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Too bad it's an off run that we have to toss e20. I bet my house on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 58 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don't trust it one bit. And I won't go into detail lest I be called a debbie downer. There is zero excitement on my end. I got excited two nights ago when it showed a storm, even when I knew better. Screw the GFS. There is zero doubt in my mind that tonight will show a weak frontal passage with sprinkles at 0z. I don't think we actually disagree on odds just maybe how we view and handle those odds. If I had to bet any money that's probably how I would go. In my mind it's probably only a 30% chance something even just significant let alone HECS level comes of this pattern. Maybe higher odds that some of us at least see some snow again. But to me that's exciting. I don't get beat down by every failure. I know that's my fate most of the time. 90% of "threats" I identify at range will fail. And even just pretty good pattern supported threats like this will fail 70% of the time from this range. I know that going in. But just having a chance at a big snow is exciting to me. Most of the time and 90% of this winter that option wasn't even on the table. So I don't fear the fail. I know it's more likely then shoveling a foot of snow and yea when it does fail there is a moment of disappointment but it's not some traumatic emotional beating that some others seem to go through so I don't feel the need to avoid excitement to reduce emotional let down. I'm aware of the low odds. But the odds are way higher then normal climo. That's all. One thing I do like about this threat is the pattern was there first and now some specific model support is coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is at least track worthy at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, attml said: This is at least track worthy at 162 Welcome to about 5 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 did the clocks change or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: did the clocks change or something That's what I was wondering...this seems a little slow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Welcome to about 5 hours ago... That's funny - I scrolled through and didn't see these images posted by anyone but thanks for your kindness just the same :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 ICON appears to be a major letdown....here comes the 1 step forward 5 step back part of our evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, attml said: That's funny - I scrolled through and didn't see these images posted by anyone but thanks for your kindness just the same :-) There is a several page discussion on the 18z GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON appears to be a major letdown....here comes the 1 step forward 5 step back part of our evening Are we suppose to like the ICON? I thought we tossed that model every run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON appears to be a major letdown....here comes the 1 step forward 5 step back part of our evening Is that even a real model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON appears to be a major letdown....here comes the 1 step forward 5 step back part of our evening icon almost righted the ship at the end but the 500mb low was too north to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 CMC is a disaster which is probably good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: icon almost righted the ship at the end but the 500mb low was too north to begin with Dude.... 1. It's 7 days out and it was close 2. It's the darn ICON! Relax, brother...I know we're all desperate, but geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 TT coming in to slow tonight. Time to call it a night. Guess I will catch up in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: CMC is a disaster which is probably good news GFS might make us happy again...might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Digging further south at 114, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I like where GFS is so far at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS might make us happy again...might its been the stingiest marcus W model all winter.....it would be incredible to see it give us 2 good snows in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Digging further south at 114, no? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS still looks solid at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: CMC is a disaster which is probably good news Gfs is way south of both the icon and ggem with the h5 low coming through the plains around day 4. Looks similar to 18z with that feature so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 never been so excited to see a storm in Northern Missouri lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is way south of both the icon and ggem with the h5 low coming through the plains around day 4. Looks similar to 18z with that feature so far. this might be the weenie statement of the year but this important step here is only 96 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Friday storm is holding together a little better on the 0z at 126... I hope that doesn't hurt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ugh... 132 has h5 low in W IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Ugh... 132 has h5 low in W IN No different than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 it may take 1 step back tonight which is okay....but its not taking 3-4 steps back. or maybe it holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So far so good but the h5 low has to turn southeast and dig next frame. That's where the 18z really got good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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