BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 9:43 PM, showmethesnow said: NAM aside, I have liked what I have seen on the runs today. Think we are very much in the game here. Expand Here? You mean there? The distance between our yards is like 120 miles. There yes...here I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Interesting look for sure for d4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 9:41 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: On 3/3/2018 at 9:34 PM, showmethesnow said: Didn't really look to hard into it. Just can't get up the energy to care too much about the NAM at range. All to often it is all over the board with the 500's from run to run which makes it a very unreliable model to follow at long leads. Expand It has been spot on in my area last several storms tbh. Not sure re: overall pattern but has tended to lead the way irt to trends at range and thermals in the short term. Killing it lately. Expand Maybe I am doing it a disservice and in fact it has gotten better. I pretty much quit following it at the longer leads years ago. I am intrigued with the 3k though. Think that has done a fairly good job so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 9:47 PM, BristowWx said: Here? You mean there? The distance between our yards is like 120 miles. There yes...here I am not sure. Expand When I refer to HERE I mean the DC/Balt corridor. And yes the trends are putting them into the game and possibly you as well. We are fighting climo at this point so naturally northern/western areas will have the advantage in what looks to be such a marginal setup. Just can't be helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 18z pretty similar to 12z. Seems to have taken a step back at h5. Pretty similar results at the surface though. Let's see what the GEFS show us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 9:54 PM, showmethesnow said: When I refer to HERE I mean the DC/Balt corridor. And yes the trends are putting them into the game and possibly you as well. We are fighting climo at this point so naturally northern/western areas will have the advantage in what looks to be such a marginal setup. Just can't be helped. Expand Roger. 18z looks good there as it was in the last 4 runs. Not so much here. You’re correct it can’t be helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 10:05 PM, BristowWx said: Roger. 18z looks good there as it was in the last 4 runs. Not so much here. You’re correct it can’t be helped. Expand Pretty much a sideways run but the coastal getting going just off of obx is consistent. The primary is too far north to "fill the gap" overhead. It's tantalizingly close though. If the primary was 75-100 miles south it would have been a decent hit. These types of storms traditionally miss us but they work sometimes too. We probably have better chances late season for quicker development. We're outside looking in but still have to wait 24-48 hours before writing it off or getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Somehow I knew that taking off most of today from reading in here would change luck. I’ll be back next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 If we miss on Wednesday and then again on March 12, it will be a fail of epic proportions to cap off a winter of epic fails... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 story of DC winters...982 of ocean low and not even a drop of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 10:35 PM, MD Snow said: If we miss on Wednesday and then again on March 12, it will be a fail of epic proportions to cap off a winter of epic fails... Expand Yes. That is a loaded pattern on GFS. But we are relying on regular cold. Need extra cold. But no reason to fret the surface now. Pattern is loaded that’s evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 10:41 PM, Ji said: story of DC winters...982 of ocean low and not even a drop of anything Expand It just can’t snow man..it just can’t. But maybe it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 10:41 PM, Ji said: story of DC winters...982 of ocean low and not even a drop of anything Expand We know that storms always produce their own dynamic cooling. We’re fine. Jeb has promised shellackings since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Have to love the potential that is shown at 500's leading into our day 9 storm on the 18Z gfs. Slightly off but very close to something big just as the 12z Euro was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Lol. How does this not produce snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 10:58 PM, Chris78 said: Lol. How does this not produce snow? Expand That upper low tracks about 150 miles south of where we want. System out of sync. One piece races ahead. In mid winter it would still have been a moderate snowfall. We need perfect in mid march. Get that h5 over southern VA instead of northeast SC and we would have been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:00 PM, psuhoffman said: That upper low tracks about 150 miles south of where we want. System out of sync. One piece races ahead. In mid winter it would still have been a moderate snowfall. We need perfect in mid march. Get that h5 over southern VA instead of northeast SC and we would have been good. Expand Ok gotcha ya I guess it's good to be to far south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:00 PM, psuhoffman said: That upper low tracks about 150 miles south of where we want. System out of sync. One piece races ahead. In mid winter it would still have been a moderate snowfall. We need perfect in mid march. Get that h5 over southern VA instead of northeast SC and we would have been good. Expand My understanding is that we need a more negative tilt to the trough. Is that right? By the time this storm really gets going, it's headed OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Gotta be some good hits on the GEFS for the 12th. Coastal low signature on the precip maps and looks like it's cold enough. Atleast on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:23 PM, Chris78 said: Gotta be some good hits on the GEFS for the 12th. Coastal low signature on the precip maps and looks like it's cold enough. Atleast on the mean.Not feeling the 12th it seems like every Solution on every model is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:26 PM, Ji said: On 3/3/2018 at 11:23 PM, Chris78 said: Gotta be some good hits on the GEFS for the 12th. Coastal low signature on the precip maps and looks like it's cold enough. Atleast on the mean. Expand Not feeling the 12th it seems like every Solution on every model is warm Expand Maybe. But it's close. It Wouldn't take a big adjustment. It we get a good h5 track I would take my chances. It's just a shame we didn't get this pattern 2 or 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:08 PM, cae said: My understanding is that we need a more negative tilt to the trough. Is that right? By the time this storm really gets going, it's headed OTS. Expand Yeah, the trough goes neutral as the closed low passes under us. If we see that going neutral and then neg tilt a little sooner we get a better passage of the closed low. eta: Thought I would also add it would aid in a quicker capture of the surface low producing a track west of what we are currently seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:26 PM, Ji said: On 3/3/2018 at 11:23 PM, Chris78 said: Gotta be some good hits on the GEFS for the 12th. Coastal low signature on the precip maps and looks like it's cold enough. Atleast on the mean. Expand Not feeling the 12th it seems like every Solution on every model is warm Expand We need it to be phased and amplified. A disconnected gobbledygook like the 18z op won't do it. Need a good h5 pass. Need the surface and h5 to by synced so there is a healthy ccb and it goes over us. Something that would have been 4-8" during the winter from multiple periods of moderate snow won't work now. We need a stone cold assassin storm that drops .75 qpf in a 6 hour thump. That's the bad. The good is this setup has that potential. It's there. Just need the parts to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I’ll take the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 11:23 PM, Chris78 said: Gotta be some good hits on the GEFS for the 12th. Coastal low signature on the precip maps and looks like it's cold enough. Atleast on the mean. Expand This one is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 On 3/4/2018 at 12:10 AM, mappy said: I’ll take the cmc Expand You and me both lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 On 3/4/2018 at 12:10 AM, mappy said: I’ll take the cmc Expand I count 6 gefs members that look like that cmc run. Then another bunch that are acceptable if not season savers. One member nails us twice and we get 3' next week. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 CMC is great... ...if you live in Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Obviously none of these are the actual final solutions, but CMC is really only good for Baltimore and north and even then those numbers are at 10:1 and probably way too high, and a slight shift north and everyone south of PA would get shut out. Then again, a slight shift south would put is in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Miller B In early March, gonna need a lot to break right...but hey, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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