Cobalt Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS still says NAM is complete junk. SNE will not get smoked. Good juju? Canaan is the place to chase. Decent snow and not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GFS still says NAM is complete junk. SNE will not get smoked. Good juju? Canaan is the place to chase. Decent snow and not too far away. Yeah we are planning on heading to our place in McHenry Friday afternoon. Might need to make that Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GFS still says NAM is complete junk. SNE will not get smoked. Good juju? Canaan is the place to chase. Decent snow and not too far away. Moved this from the old thread. I'm legitimately curious what the answer is. I guess I don't understand the doom and gloom today. I was never that high on things that i felt we were likely to win. I did feel we had a chance. Maybe 30%. Still do. Yea it would have been nice to get one of these early events as the pattern change to become a threat. But unless my memory is failing didn't we kind of know this march 1-2 thing was a LOOONG shot from 10 days ago? I specifically remember numerous posts saying we probably are looking at the second to third week of march. 10-15 was thrown around a lot and not just by me. So not having anything before then work out sucks but I expected it. But the prime window we are looking at the 10-15 looks even better today then it did yesterday imo. The snow mean on both EPS and gefs went up for that period. It's only not up overall because the bogus fake snow from outliers this week fell off. So while I get pessimism what happened today that set everyone off on this negative? Was it losing the 20" fantasy gfs op storm? Or is there something I'm not seeing? Were people actually expecting the rain storm this week that starts out north of Chicago with the 540 line near Montreal to trend south enough for us? What looks worse today then yesterday that has the mood so down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Yeah we are planning on heading to our place in McHenry Friday afternoon. Might need to make that Thursday night. I believe in the NAM and will head to Central Massachusetts. Looks like a massive walloping. 30 inches or bust. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GFS still says NAM is complete junk. SNE will not get smoked. Good juju? Canaan is the place to chase. Decent snow and not too far away. They aren't that far apart. Nam is just 2-3 degrees colder at all levels and that makes all the difference. It's barely marginally snow on the nam much of the time. It's barely not snow on the gfs. The snow maps aside they aren't too far apart. Not like the euro thats on its own planet. But I don't care which is right both mean the same for us. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I can already see this will be a better run... must be the new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, SlamSlam said: I believe in the NAM and will head to Central Massachusetts. Looks like a massive walloping. 30 inches or bust. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk I’d do the same if we weren’t hosting friends this weekend. And if the NAM is right. Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 A compromise between the nam and gfs is likely. They to me looks like a highly elevatin dependent storm where the coastal areas and CT river valley struggle to get 3-6" of slop while places above 1000 feet get 10" and places around 2000 get 20". I bet that's what the 3k shows once it's in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: I can already see this will be a better run... must be the new thread Doesn't look like much through 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 40 minutes ago, Interstate said: I can already see this will be a better run... must be the new thread I thought 12z was better. I'd rather see the waves south of us like 12z then north on the 18z. But maybe I'm missing what you were seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 35 minutes ago, yoda said: Doesn't look like much through 174 All the way through my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 42 minutes ago, Interstate said: I can already see this will be a better run... must be the new thread its probably the worst run in the last 20 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: its probably the worst run in the last 20 days That was a joke. Changing threads have nothing to do with our luck. We just dont have any right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: its probably the worst run in the last 20 days Agreed. It was a disaster. In every way. Nothing through day 8 matters since there are no threats there. But look at day 9...oh is that another ridge popping. And an AK vortex already destroying the pattern when it was supposed to be getting good... gee I wonder where that ridge is gonna go by the middle of what was our threat window on then 12z run. It's just one op run but it was exactly what I didn't want to see. In every way. If it's right there is no threat. That h5 look isn't even close. Again just one op run but I feel like we have said that a few times and then it becomes a few up runs then the ensembles are backing off then oh well next. At least there won't be any next this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: That was a joke. Changing threads have nothing to do with our luck. We just dont have any right now. What did you see when you said it was better? Not being a jerk just curious what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed. It was a disaster. In every way. Nothing through day 8 matters since there are no threats there. But look at day 9...oh is that another ridge popping. And an AK vortex already destroying the pattern when it was supposed to be getting good... gee I wonder where that ridge is gonna go by the middle of what was our threat window on then 12z run. It's just one op run but it was exactly what I didn't want to see. In every way. If it's right there is no threat. That h5 look isn't even close. Again just one op run but I feel like we have said that a few times and then it becomes a few up runs then the ensembles are backing off then oh well next. At least there won't be any next this time lol. you see what i mean...we get one good run...we hit a crossroads and then we take 3 steps back. Its been a theme of the winter. We cant ever advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Don’t look at the H5 at the end of the 18z GFS. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: you see what i mean...we get one good run...we hit a crossroads and then we take 3 steps back. Its been a theme of the winter. We cant ever advance I never said that observation was wrong. I just don't complain about stuff over and over. Won't change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What did you see when you said it was better? Not being a jerk just curious what it was. Well at hour 156 I saw the H5 and SL south and I was hoping that would help us in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Don’t look at the H5 at the end of the 18z GFS. Yikes. Dunno if that trough in the west progresses and the Epo ride reloads by march 20th... nope it's game over. Lol. No joke if the op gfs is right in tanking a trough into the PAC NW again and linking another ridge with the block in response then it's game set march. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well at hour 156 I saw the H5 and SL south and I was hoping that would help us in the long run Hmm ok I see. I guess if we're looking only at the day 7-8 wave it was slightly closer to something. The rest after that was a total disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Watch the 18z gefs come in with the weeniest run of the winter. Didnt we decide to toss the off hour runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Well...if this really is it and we end up going two consecutive winters without a WSW...you gotta think we're due next winter...I don't know the records, but...when was the last time we went three straight without a WSW event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well...if this really is it and we end up going two consecutive winters without a WSW...you gotta think we're due next winter...I don't know the records, but...wehn was the last time we went three straight without a WSW event? I don't know about the WSW deal but 88 through 92 were 4 consecutive abysmal winters. I too would like to think we're due but that's not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Watch the 18z gefs come in with the weeniest run of the winter. Didnt we decide to toss the off hour runs? If it’s good we won’t believe it. This is the lowest morale I have seen since I have been here. For good reason of course. This ended way early if this is it. I still had fun though. I love tracking even if we fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well...if this really is it and we end up going two consecutive winters without a WSW...you gotta think we're due next winter...I don't know the records, but...when was the last time we went three straight without a WSW event? Since the 70s at least probably and maybe longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Gefs mean looks nothing like the op. If anything it looks suppressive not like a cutter fest. The upper low slides east and sets up just north of Maine. Need that a bit more north. But not bad. This is close. op must be an extreme outlier given that mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Yea precip coming out. It's suppression city. Snow signal for NC lol. Light of course. Big in the apps. Dry here. Lol. Opposite of the op. But I'm ok with suppression at day 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea precip coming out. It's suppression city. Snow signal for NC lol. Light of course. Big in the apps. Dry here. Lol. Opposite of the op. But I'm ok with suppression at day 10-15. despite ensembles.....the operational has been the best model this year. How many weenie ensemble runs have we had....where the OP was like "wtf..you talking about" and in the end...look how much snow we have gotten. The OP GFS except for a few runs has been extremely stingy with digital snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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