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March 1-3 -NAO Comeback Coastal Discussion/OBS


The Iceman

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still a blue bomber for se pa 4"...plus doesnt change most of us over til 16-17z which is likely the absolutely latest imo as I see most of us changing in a hour tops..
Yeah, nams were flipping us over between 7-10am but pushed it back this run. Probably time to put the models to rest on this one anyway. Nowcast/dynamics time.
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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
still a blue bomber for se pa 4"...plus doesnt change most of us over til 16-17z which is likely the absolutely latest imo as I see most of us changing in a hour tops..

Yeah, nams were flipping us over between 7-10am but pushed it back this run. Probably time to put the models to rest on this one anyway. Nowcast/dynamics time.

agreed...wherever that death band lands is going to be the big winners here...dont care what the models say. thing is a beast. doesn't have much west movement so it is training over the same areas. roads may be covered under that band temps be damned...

 

WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&d

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And just like that, heavy snow with already a coating on grassy surfaces. Keep in mind I’m at one of the lowest elevations of the Poconos...it wasn’t supposed to change over until late morning/early afternoon.
Can't be lower then me? I'm at 550'. Snowing sideways now.

Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk

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Just now, wkd said:

I've been on this board it seems forever and feel stupid asking this.  What is:  blue bomb  and  white rain ?

hey man no such thing as a stupid question. sorry I can be such a weenie that i forget not everyone knows the lingo.

 

Blue bomb = weenie talk for wet snow that sticks to everything

White rain = weenie talk for snow that melts immediately on contact

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

hey man no such thing as a stupid question. sorry I can be such a weenie that i forget not everyone knows the lingo.

 

Blue bomb = weenie talk for wet snow that sticks to everything

White rain = weenie talk for snow that melts immediately on contact

Thanks. White rain now and hoping for blue bomb:)

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agreed...wherever that death band lands is going to be the big winners here...dont care what the models say. thing is a beast. doesn't have much west movement so it is training over the same areas. roads may be covered under that band temps be damned...
 
WUNIDS_map?station=DIX%26brand=wui%26num=6%26delay=15%26type=N0R%26frame=0%26scale=0.3239130434782609%26noclutter=0%26showstorms=0%26mapx=400%26mapy=240%26centerx=494.1610738255033%26centery=306.37583892617454%26transx=94.16107382550331%26transy=66.37583892617454%26showlabels=1%26severe=0%26rainsnow=0%26lightning=0%26smooth=0%26rand=25333363%26lat=40.24%26lon=-74.78%26label=Trenton&key=59b5586c7adbb83ad6619b0b37f1aa2d76f8cc0e704e8b48ecf2fd2736213319
That band almost stationary. That is likely the narrow banding of heavy snow the mesos were keying on when slamming the Delaware River Gap and areas just across the bridge in Central NJ. Congrats to those areas!
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:
4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
hey man no such thing as a stupid question. sorry I can be such a weenie that i forget not everyone knows the lingo.
 
Blue bomb = weenie talk for wet snow that sticks to everything
White rain = weenie talk for snow that melts immediately on contact

Snow TV also is another good one lol

Don't forget "conversational snow".

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looking at the OBS, temps are 36-38F just outside of the band but temps have dropped to 33-34 inside the band...despite being lower elevation/"less favorable" spot climo speaking. I don't think the models picked up that a band like that would be able to have the kind of power to drop the temp. The Delaware river area should be in heavy snow by 11 am at the absolute latest...and with obs showing the temp drop along with the heavy rates, i don't foresee an issue of sticking. there is a lot to be positive about so far.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
agreed...wherever that death band lands is going to be the big winners here...dont care what the models say. thing is a beast. doesn't have much west movement so it is training over the same areas. roads may be covered under that band temps be damned...
 
WUNIDS_map?station=DIX%26brand=wui%26num=6%26delay=15%26type=N0R%26frame=0%26scale=0.3239130434782609%26noclutter=0%26showstorms=0%26mapx=400%26mapy=240%26centerx=494.1610738255033%26centery=306.37583892617454%26transx=94.16107382550331%26transy=66.37583892617454%26showlabels=1%26severe=0%26rainsnow=0%26lightning=0%26smooth=0%26rand=25333363%26lat=40.24%26lon=-74.78%26label=Trenton&key=59b5586c7adbb83ad6619b0b37f1aa2d76f8cc0e704e8b48ecf2fd2736213319

That band almost stationary. That is likely the narrow banding of heavy snow the mesos were keying on when slamming the Delaware River Gap and areas just across the bridge in Central NJ. Congrats to those areas!

Yeah that was heavy snow. Drove in it on my to work where its raining here in Hopewell Mercer county now.

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Just now, JERSEYSNOWROB said:

Yeah that was heavy snow. Drove in it on my to work where its raining here in Hopewell Mercer county now.

Hopewell should be heavy snow in 10 mins...I'm thinking trenton should be in it by 1030 latest. it isn't making a large progress west but it is coming slowly. I think right along the river or just on the jersey side may be the winners here.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Hopewell should be heavy snow in 10 mins...I'm thinking trenton should be in it by 1030 latest. it isn't making a large progress west but it is coming slowly. I think right along the river or just on the jersey side may be the winners here.

you need to look at the radar further north.  The area further north is pivoting much quicker and will collapse on all of SEPA within the next two hours

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

looking at the OBS, temps are 36-38F just outside of the band but temps have dropped to 33-34 inside the band...despite being lower elevation/"less favorable" spot climo speaking. I don't think the models picked up that a band like that would be able to have the kind of power to drop the temp. The Delaware river area should be in heavy snow by 11 am at the absolute latest...and with obs showing the temp drop along with the heavy rates, i don't foresee an issue of sticking. there is a lot to be positive about so far.

This is the version of the nexrad with snow/sleet/ice signature and am not sure if that band is all snow (although fooling with the elevation shows it obviously colder up higher) -

 

03012018-nexrad.gif

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Looks like Mt. Holly is on board with a more widespread snowier outcome today (minus the heavier amounts):

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
820 AM Update...We are currently working on updating the forecast and should be out by 9 AM. Colder air wrapping around
the southwestern side of the low has allowed for rain to mix with and even change over to snow in NE MD and DE, especially
when precip intensity temporarily increases (added contribution via enhanced dynamical cooling). Based on these recent ground-
truth reports, mesoanalysis and what we are seeing in hi-res rapid refresh guidance, the trend is cooler or closer to the 12
km NAM and NAM nest. However, we do not buy into the extreme outlier snowfall accumulations these models are showing (e.g.,
5-10" of snow along and east of the DE Valley down into the greater Phila area) b/c these algorithms assume a 10:1 SLR and
b/c the model explicit microphysics package indicates something other than just pure snow (rain/snow mix) with probability of
frozen precip values in the 40-80 percent range. More details to come after the update...
 

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