Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Hrrr sounding says I should be 39F. I'm at 35F. Good sign. Hope the 850's don't warm.Good sign that we are verifying cooler than modeled on the hrrr because its snowfall map is a disaster. I generally dont put alot of stock into it regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Some flakes mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 45F at midnight, now down to 39F...don't think I'll drop much below that. Light rain/drizzle atm. Hope the trash collectors come by soon so I get get everything into the garage before the winds kink in. My trash guys just came and I took them up...was a tad worried about that myself. Put a couple bricks in each one as I don't want to see them flying down the street later. (cow in "Twister") 39.6F/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Most mesoscale guidance is a bit more generous (except for the RGEM).Saw that. Hrdps is hanging tough as well. Would love to see the NAM score another coup as leading the pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 My trash guys just came and I took them up...was a tad worried about that myself. Put a couple bricks in each one as I don't want to see them flying down the street later. (cow in "Twister") 39.6F/rainWhen are we expected to see the uptick in winds here? I thought guidance was showing after 10AM correct? Dead calm right now 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, JTA66 said: 45F at midnight, now down to 39F...don't think I'll drop much below that. Light rain/drizzle atm. Hope the trash collectors come by soon so I get get everything into the garage before the winds kink in. Took mine out early this morning (pickup is usually around 6:30 am) and brought the can back, although so far not to windy here, maybe 15 to 20 mph gusts max. And yeah I sure hope you get below 39F. There's a warm bubble over eastern PA at 925 mb that should pull east and get sucked into the vortex as the morning goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Snow flakes starting to mix in with the rain here in Marlboro Monmouth County NJ. Headed to Mercer county shortly for work. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: My trash guys just came and I took them up...was a tad worried about that myself. Put a couple bricks in each one as I don't want to see them flying down the street later. (cow in "Twister") 39.6F/rain When are we expected to see the uptick in winds here? I thought guidance was showing after 10AM correct? Dead calm right now 37F. I noticed within the past half-hour they picked up pretty aggressively. (it was calm here earlier as well) I would think by 11am-noon we'll see some nice gust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Heaviest precip of the day is entering E PA now pinwheeling in from the NE. This looks like the death band lifting that some mesos were alluding to working its way back WSW. Lets see where it sets up and if this is the catalyst to flip people over fully to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Mostly sleet falling here now, temp 37 Up to 0.80" of precipitation for the day, storm total 1.27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Saw that. Hrdps is hanging tough as well. Would love to see the NAM score another coup as leading the pack! NAMs have been good lately, especially the 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Snow mixed with rain now (little earlier than point and click - 5pm) Temp 37.1 here in NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Rain-38 -NW wind currently @ 20mph. Kennett Square-good 'ol mushroom country southern Chester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Wind starting to pick up. Precip let up. No more flakes. 34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Dynamic cooling began immediately once that band in western NJ began to cross into PA. Rain slowly beginning to transition over to snow in East Stroudsburg. Wind really picking up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Driving through Manalapan moderate snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Winds definitely starting to pick up now. Hard to say, there could be a few wet flakes trying to mix in, or it just could be larger rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 I swear I was mixing wet flakes and sleet on my way to work from levittown to Trenton but I couldn't tell once I parked in the garage. Thought change over was suppose to happen way later..like noonish or 1.Temp is 37 rn. Haven't noticed any wind yet. I think radar looks great for dynamic cooling. Especially for central Jersey and extreme se pa. I'm wondering how the good banding ticks west before stopping though. That point is where the best totals around here will be outside of elevation areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Both 12z nams still showing decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I swear I was mixing wet flakes and sleet on my way to work from levittown to Trenton but I couldn't tell once I parked in the garage. Thought change over was suppose to happen way later..like noonish or 1.Temp is 37 rn. Haven't noticed any wind yet. I think radar looks great for dynamic cooling. Especially for central Jersey and extreme se pa. I'm wondering how the good banding ticks west before stopping though. That point is where the best totals around here will be outside of elevation areas.NAM was consistently signaling changeover between 7-10am for most the past several runs. Havent looked to see if that had changed or not tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Both 12z nams still showing decent snow.What areas? Still 4"+ SE PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Dynamic cooling began immediately once that band in western NJ began to cross into PA. Rain slowly beginning to transition over to snow in East Stroudsburg. Wind really picking up too. And just like that, heavy snow with already a coating on grassy surfaces. Keep in mind I’m at one of the lowest elevations of the Poconos...it wasn’t supposed to change over until late morning/early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 So looking at radar there is a great band moving sw pivoting into the area. may be the one that changes folks over..will be interesting to watch. excuse the crude drawing but anyone in the arrows direction should see a changeover in the next hour imo if we are going to changeover dynamically.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 9 minutes ago, wkd said: Both 12z nams still showing decent snow. What areas? Still 4"+ SE PA? 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 9 minutes ago, wkd said: Both 12z nams still showing decent snow. What areas? Still 4"+ SE PA? still a blue bomber for se pa 4"...plus doesnt change most of us over til 16-17z which is likely the absolutely latest imo as I see most of us changing in a hour tops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, The Iceman said: still a blue bomber for se pa 4"...plus doesnt change most of us over til 16-17z which is likely the absolutely latest imo as I see most of us changing in a hour tops.. 12k 3k important to note both models seem to change over areas later than what is occurring. temps across the board have already busted in the early hours of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 So looking at radar there is a great band moving sw pivoting into the area. may be the one that changes folks over..will be interesting to watch. excuse the crude drawing but anyone in the arrows direction should see a changeover in the next hour imo if we are going to changeover dynamically.. Mentioned that band earlier as being the dynamic catalyst and as per obs seems to be about right. Hopefully it continues to pivot/push WSW! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Mainly snow but some rain still mixed here in East Nantmeal in Chester County - temp down to 36.1 - high wind gust so far 26 mph (somewhat sheltered between hills) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2-4We take. Hrrr not having it.....still c-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 38F here with mainly light rain. Looks like we'll need slightly heavier returns to change over here. Hopefully as the low loops in the next few hours the heavier banding can shift west. North and Central New Jersey look to be getting nailed nicely right now. Winds here have picked up in the last hour or so. eta: actually snow is mixing in a bit again as I'm typing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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