The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 we snow from 18z to almost 6z...unreal storm on the 12k NAM. I would be happy to have half of that verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 That will definitely work if it were to verify. Gorgeous looking ULL pass.....textbook. The trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Definitely thinking a 1-2" maybe 3" for some in SE PA on grass looks good right now. NAM snow totals overdone most likely. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Definitely thinking a 1-2" maybe 3" for some in SE PA on grass looks good right now. NAM snow totals overdone most likely. We take. the 10:1 totals are definitely overdone, but if the evolution occurs like the NAM, it would still be a 3-6" storm regardless of temps and we'd see accumulation everywhere. there is a 3-4 hour period that would see insane rates, definitely heavy enough to get accumulation on roadways. I think 1-3" is a good guess at the moment but the NAM highlights the possibility of this being more with the dynamics involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 the 10:1 totals are definitely overdone, but if the evolution occurs like the NAM, it would still be a 3-6" storm regardless of temps and we'd see accumulation everywhere. there is a 3-4 hour period that would see insane rates, definitely heavy enough to get accumulation on roadways. I think 1-3" is a good guess at the moment but the NAM highlights the possibility of this being more with the dynamics involved.Yes, we can adjust up for sure.....clear potential in that direction. Staying conservative for now with 1-3"ish. Will be absolute rakeage for a period friday with good rates and gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Iceman.... If this works out you definitely are the MAN. Other subforums will compete to recruit you to start threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 3k nam is similar but a bit warmer. still shows the heavy rates though as the storm closes off and stalls...thermals don't quite make it though for extreme se pa but it is so so close. very good trend regardless. RGEM is very similar to the NAM as well but we don't see the end result. But at the end of it's run (hour 48) it is very similar to the 12k nam. maybe a tad warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, wkd said: Iceman.... If this works out you definitely are the MAN. Other subforums will compete to recruit you to start threads. just embracing the underdog spirit of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 wow big changes on the gfs at 12z...may not get quite there but big shift towards the nam and euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 actually at 48 looks very similar to the nam...tad further east and a bit warmer though. still big big shift from 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 we don't quite get there on the gfs, it is a still a bit too warm and a few other differences from the nam/euro but it caved big time from 06z. major shift in a positive direction.. really the gfs should be cooler than the NAM since the low is deeper. plus its precip depiction is odd. overall looks like it should be as good or better than nam but the GFS doesn't depict it at the surface IMO h5 is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think the major impact will be flooding and wind around here. Any snow will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: we don't quite get there on the gfs, it is a still a bit too warm and a few other differences from the nam/euro but it caved big time from 06z. major shift in a positive direction.. really the gfs should be cooler than the NAM since the low is deeper. plus its precip depiction is odd. overall looks like it should be as good or better than nam but the GFS doesn't depict it at the surface IMO h5 is beautiful Sometimes the NAM can sniff these things out. Euro run will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If you look at how this storm develops and tracks south one thing that is clear is the models have to forecast unchartered territory we don't get storms like this which means high fail potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 huge euro run upcoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Who wants to see 30-40mph winds gusting to 50 with heavy wet snow Friday. What is that foamy insulation they shoot into the walls with a gun now, conditions like that outside lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z Euro looks like what JB has been selling rain to snow down to MD line and a few inches in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Who wants to see 30-40mph winds gusting to 50 with heavy wet snow Friday. What is that foamy insulation they shoot into the walls with a gun now, conditions like that outside lol. Wind enhances any type of snow (which is usually the fluffy/dry stuff which drifts)....but heavy wet snow w/high winds feels like pellets against the face. I'm on board for something like that...it's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18Z NAM switches it over to all heavy wet snow 6 hours sooner. 12Z Friday is a thing of beauty for SEPA. Glad I poopoo'd this one yesterday lol If 18Z retrogrades back like previous runs......oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 hr42 - 45 12K NAM loves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Jersey.....LOL This is a real kick in the nads to Lehigh Valley HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Jersey.....LOL This is a real kick in the nads to Lehigh Valley HAHA Nice to see the 12K nam continues to throw snow back our way. Too early for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3K nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Weather World has clouds to partial sun Friday and a dry day! Dropping the ball with that forecast omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Weather World has clouds to partial sun Friday and a dry day! Dropping the ball with that forecast omg. That's funny, We use Weather works and no mention of snow whatsoever. Im a mechanic at our company and we are in full Spring mode the loaders started rolling back in today from the P-lots, Lol gonna be a lot of OT just getting things back together if we end up with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Glenn looked/mentioned he was a little jittery/nervous with the snow coming in pasting some people. Hell, I'll take it...even a lawn tree pasting. His 10 day....40s March! Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: That's funny, We use Weather works and no mention of snow whatsoever. Im a mechanic at our company and we are in full Spring mode the loaders started rolling back in today from the P-lots, Lol gonna be a lot of OT just getting things back together if we end up with snow. We use Weather DTN where I am. They have snow from 5PM Friday ending at Midnight. However, temps are all above freezing all the way through. Accumulations less than 1/2" Which means it might stick to spots in the grass lightly, but nothing on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Mt Holly doesn't seem too enthused at the moment. Maybe they are waiting for 00z. Crazy how this is coming down to the wire again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mt Holly doesn't seem too enthused at the moment. Maybe they are waiting for 00z. Crazy how this is coming down to the wire again They may wait till the last minute to pull the plug....one way or another. It is an interesting set up...times like this being a Met sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Weather World has clouds to partial sun Friday and a dry day! Dropping the ball with that forecast omg. We're either delusional or we've got the inside scoop, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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