The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 EURO prints out a paste job for most of SE PA. It is the clear outlier at this point as no other guidance shows this but is interesting as we head into 18z. The biggest flaw is really cold air. I don't really think we overcome the odds but we willed the last one back why not give this one a shot! 12z euro is going to shift the tide... 18z should be interesting at the very least and we can discuss the snow possibilities until the 00z euro takes it away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'm in yellow jackets don't eat snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Gefs mean isn't a complete shutout but as RedSky stated, sleet counts as snow. Gfs will see the light soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 i'm most interested for the meso models to get in range. by 12z tomorrow that will be the case. they'll have the best read on the low level cold imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 35 minutes ago, The Iceman said: EURO prints out a paste job for most of SE PA. It is the clear outlier at this point as no other guidance shows this but is interesting as we head into 18z. The biggest flaw is really cold air. I don't really think we overcome the odds but we willed the last one back why not give this one a shot! 12z euro is going to shift the tide... 18z should be interesting at the very least and we can discuss the snow possibilities until the 00z euro takes it away... The Euro used to be quite good at this range, but who knows nowadays. At least we now have a close in threat to look at instead of just long range ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 EPS mean supports the OP... very very interesting though it is uncommon for them to be completely different in this range. still.. let's see what the 18z nam shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Per JB at WB "Until tomorrow I dont think models will get a real handle on the snow that s going to occur with this feature. My take is there will be accumulating snow down the Mason Dixon line in the east, There is a northward adjustment in the midwest so it may miss Chicago, but the further east you get, the more likely this is going to turn to snow and try to thump for a while. There is a very big change on the GEFS ensembles. While the storm is a bit further north for a time, the 84 hour for Friday evening is a classic 500 mb to be blasting the daylights out of New England with backlash snows further west" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18z Nam. Wow for sne. Improvement for our area also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 We actually spent the day taking off plows off the trucks without spreaders, 15 of them ha ha that would be hilarious if we are scrambling to put em back on tomorrow. My boss even got a report from Weather works that's who my company uses and there was no mention of snow until next week and it was only a slight chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Heard some sping peepers just now. I hope they will tolerate the upcoming heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Winter is done boys let it go lol.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 33 minutes ago, wkd said: Heard some sping peepers just now. I hope they will tolerate the upcoming heavy snow. They'll head for the mud! It won't be that cold anyway - not like last March with mid teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Winter is done boys let it go lol. Keep doing that - good balance for our cautious interest in Friday (and beyond). One eyebrow raised so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Slight adjustment on the 0z NAM- Central Bucks and Boston both get a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 46 minutes ago, RedSky said: Slight adjustment on the 0z NAM- Central Bucks and Boston both get a couple inches Did you really think this was going to work out. It’s over folks. Winter that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Did you really think this was going to work out. It’s over folks. Winter that is I need 1" to beat winter 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 51 minutes ago, RedSky said: I need 1" to beat winter 2009 Hope the winter over posts are reverse psychology. It's not over until at least the -NAO ends. I don't mind winter lasting until late March. The season is already short enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro scaled back which was to be expected, but still gets 2-3" into SEPA down to the mason-dixon line with a 4" sweet spot over RedSky land. The margin for error is slim with this narrow "death band" Chances that we steal Boston's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Meh. Our Weather DTN saying temps above 32 when the change over to snow hits about 5PM Friday. Lasts till around 9-10PM. Less than 1" IMBY White Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro and nam the models that give the best chance of some snow in our area. RedSky may get his inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro and nam the models that give the best chance of some snow in our area. RedSky may get his inch.Will be interesting to see what happens now that the hi res models are getting into range. Im not uber optimistic on this one as there is more working against us than for us (daytime when flakes expected to fall, bl rotting away and dependent on colder air wrapping in behind the system as it occludes and pulls SE, ragged precip as 700mb rh is shutting off due to occlusion, not happening on a weekend :-D ), but who knows? We do have Iceman's trusty EE rule in effect and the NAM bumped snowfall to 1-2" in SE PA so maybe we can eek out some minor incremental sloppy slushy grass accums to tack on to our seasonal tally. As always, fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This is actually a decent looking vort pass/ULL depiction. Its that dang BL that hurts us tho. Maybe we get a few hours of dynamically driven flakes with the gusty 30mph+ winds to remind us we still have a few more weeks before completely packing up the winter clothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM has been trending cooler and cooler the last few runs...will be very interesting to see what 12z says. Also am excited to see the mesos at 12z as well since they will be in range. I don't think we see anything significant out of this but the seasonal trend of 1-3" seems like an ok goal at this range. I do like we have a very dynamic system but everything ralph mentioned above are very valid concerns and are what hold this back... if we had just a bit of cold air in place this would be a MECS or at least a severe ice to snow storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: NAM has been trending cooler and cooler the last few runs...will be very interesting to see what 12z says. Also am excited to see the mesos at 12z as well since they will be in range. I don't think we see anything significant out of this but the seasonal trend of 1-3" seems like an ok goal at this range. I do like we have a very dynamic system but everything ralph mentioned above are very valid concerns and are what hold this back... if we had just a bit of cold air in place this would be a MECS or at least a severe ice to snow storm.... It seems that one of the things we've missed this winter is a nice cold high to our north previous to our snow events. We've had to rely on dynamics for cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, wkd said: It seems that one of the things we've missed this winter is a nice cold high to our north previous to our snow events. We've had to rely on dynamics for cooling. Oh we've had plenty of cold highs to our north but due to no blocking the entire winter they scoot out NE before the storm arrived...now we have blocking and no highs in sight due to a crap pacific...cruel irony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I do think some folks are missing that you do not need cold air when the upper low is passing just south of an area....follow the upper low and just north of it will snow...even if it is 35 degrees....and it will accumulate when it gets heavy. Also - JB at WB thinks the 6z GFS is "woefully underdone" he sees snow down to ACY....likes a Euro/NAM blend - expecting changes with GFS in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: I do think some folks are missing that you do not need cold air when the upper low is passing just south of an area....follow the upper low and just north of it will snow...even if it is 35 degrees....and it will accumulate when it gets heavy. Also - JB at WB thinks the 6z GFS is "woefully underdone" he sees snow down to ACY....likes a Euro/NAM blend - expecting changes with GFS in future runs. JB has to be the biggest joke in meteorology right now. I used to hang on his every word, but he has really become all hype and nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z NAM is going to be a NICE paste job for SE PA...huge step towards to EURO and likely an even better end result. here we are at 54: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Well fella's I think we just got NAM'd now this is only at 10:1 which won't occur so knock a bit off the top but this is still snowing through 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 If 12z NAM is correct, we would see an absolute disaster friday afternoon commute. heavy snow from 3pm-7 pm it looks like... would stick regardless of temps at those rates. EE rule folks...lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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