NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Atlantic city gets more snow than NYC and immediate suburbs Don't believe those clown maps, but it's certainly possible because of the cyclonic rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I don’t remember a storm in this area that created its own 500 vort bomb right on top of the area...usually its already established and the storm works with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z NAM im loving my location right now! Snowicane redux... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM has to much run to run inconsistency.Insert other media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Atlantic city gets more snow than NYC and immediate suburbs because NYC is on the wrong side of the circulation of the LP and AC is getting more of a northerly flow keeping the warmer ocean air out - this whole NAM solution should be considered HIGHLY suspect - no model at this point can forecast the exact track of this storm - there will be errors on all of them and those errors could mean the difference between a heavy snowfall for any location and nothing......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wrong, there is no cold air to work with, the cold air on the NAM is produced by adiabatic cooling, heat release aided by strong lift in the atmosphere. If you want snow on Long Island you need the low to close off later. Nj and the Hudson valley certainly have a chance, but yes long islannd has a lot of work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: because NYC is on the wrong side of the circulation of the LP and AC is getting more of a northerly flow keeping the warmer ocean air out - this whole NAM solution should be considered HIGHLY suspect - no model at this point can forecast the exact track of this storm - there will be errors on all of them and those errors could mean the difference between a heavy snowfall for any location and nothing......... I totally disagree, the NAM made perfect sense in terms of track and cold air distribution if it works out that way with the 500mb low. As I said earlier, where and when that closes off and how far South is the key. If it doesn't close off till South of Long Island then we are too far West to get much of anything and New England gets buried. This is very much a relatively localized event that favors areas further south because of the strong block. If not for that this storm would have nailed Northern New England and we would have dry slotted after the rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Soundings are walking a fine line. Low gets a little too tucked for CNJ on the 3K. Whens the last time ACY reported SN+ while MMU RN+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Still running, but the 12z RGEM at first glance looks similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I totally disagree, the NAM made perfect sense in terms of track and cold air distribution if it works out that way with the 500mb low. As I said earlier, where and when that closes off and how far South is the key. If it doesn't close off till South of Long Island then we are too far West to get much of anything and New England gets buried. This is very much a relatively localized event that favors areas further south because of the strong block. If not for that this storm would have nailed Northern New England and we would have dry slotted after the rain tomorrow. of course it makes perfect sense IF it works out that way - BUT its not going to work out that way - guaranteed and no one can predict exactly how this will unfold this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: Soundings are walking a fine line. Low gets a little too tucked for CNJ on the 3K. Whens the last time ACY reported SN+ while MMU RN+? That's pretty typical though, the mid-level centers pass right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: That's pretty typical though, the mid-level centers pass right overhead. Do you see a chance for 6"+ in my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: of course it makes perfect sense IF it works out that way - BUT its not going to work out that way - guaranteed The only difference between the 00z Euro and the 12z NAM is that the Euro was slightly more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: Do you see a chance for 6"+ in my area? 20-30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 30 minutes ago, Animal said: Good run for my area with snow for sure You are going to get buried bro.. That elevation is really gonna help this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snywx said: You are going to get buried bro.. That elevation is really gonna help this time. Yup, all levels of the atmosphere are plenty cold enough with the exception of the surface, which will be corrected by both elevation and adiabatic cooling. That strip that runs from about Butler up through Orange County is in for something special. Pure paste job in surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 20-30% I would like to see your new snow map 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The only difference between the 00z Euro and the 12z NAM is that the Euro was slightly more progressive. 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 20-30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yup, all levels of the atmosphere are plenty cold enough with the exception of the surface, which will be corrected by both elevation and adiabatic cooling. That strip that runs from about Butler up through Orange County is in for something special. Pure paste job in surrounding areas. You can clearly see where the CCB sets up and pivots. Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: I would like to see your new snow map I don't have one right now, but I plan to make one after the 12z runs finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snywx said: You can clearly see where the CCB sets up and pivots. Fun times ahead The NAM's depiction of the 500mb jet wrapping up overhead brings a tear to my eye. I know that this could all change at 18z, but for the time being I am enjoying this, and hope the Euro gets further on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM's depiction of the 500mb jet wrapping up overhead brings a tear to my eye. I know that this could all change at 18z, but for the time being I am enjoying this, and hope the Euro gets further on board. CCB sets up shop at hr 45 and just pivots and rots overhead till about hr 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z German is in the Euro camp, 500mb low closes off further East than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snywx said: CCB sets up shop at hr 45 and just pivots and rots overhead till about hr 63. Pretty much. And you would think that less progressive is the way to go given the record block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z German is in the Euro camp, 500mb low closes off further East than the NAM. Looks better than previous though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 These models cant be correct, all the cold air is north of quebec guys. No snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: Looks better than previous though? it's a paste job for interior NJ and NY. Eastern LI and parts of SNE really get shafted with little precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: it's a paste job for interior NJ and NY. Eastern LI and parts of SNE really get shafted with little precip. It's better than 6z but more east like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM's depiction of the 500mb jet wrapping up overhead brings a tear to my eye. I know that this could all change at 18z, but for the time being I am enjoying this, and hope the Euro gets further on board. I'm a lurker. Most of the time I have an idea of what we need to improve our chances of a more frozen outcome based on dialogue. This time I have no idea. What do we need for an improvement in reference to the Nam run. Close off earlier/later, further south/north/east/west? Or, is it as good as it will get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, kvn139 said: I'm a lurker. Most of the time I have an idea of what we need to improve our chances of a more frozen outcome based on dialogue. This time I have no idea. What do we need for an improvement in reference to the Nam run. Close off earlier/later, further south/north/east/west? Or, is it as good as it will get? 12z NAM can't get any better for NJ given the actual synoptic setup a day or so before the storm. Obviously, for NYC, if the H5 low is 50 miles further east, NYC gets into better CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, kvn139 said: I'm a lurker. Most of the time I have an idea of what we need to improve our chances of a more frozen outcome based on dialogue. This time I have no idea. What do we need for an improvement in reference to the Nam run. Close off earlier/later, further south/north/east/west? Or, is it as good as it will get? Basically you want to be just to the NW of that 500mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.