Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, nzucker said: Well yes because we are downstream from the Pacific. The Pacific is a constant source of frustration for us. The reason why Eurasia is colder than us is because of how large that continent is and they dont have the largest body of water in the world to the west of them. The Korean Peninsula, Northern Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula have a similar climate to ours, but more exciting and extreme because of not having the Pacific to their west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 ISSUED: 4:04 AM FEB. 28, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches, are possible. The higher end snow amounts will be in the higher elevations. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne Counties. In New York, Northern Oneida, Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Steuben, Schuyler, Chemung, Tompkins, Southern Oneida, Tioga, Broome and Sullivan Counties. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Honestly I am starting to wonder if this storm will be a big deal for anyone as far as impacts. Hopefully we will have a clearer picture after today's 12z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 London has a more serious setup and is under a Yellow Warning for snow/wind. Lol. Well at least the waves at Buoy 44025 are back up to 16', from 8' yesterday, but it was 21' two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Euro would be a massive blizzard even in my area. Don’t pay attention to those stupid clown maps. You have adiabatic cooling just to the North of that upper low with 2.5”+ liquid falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: The seasonal late northward trend arrives right on schedule. Even though we have a record block near Greenland, a piece of that historic SE Ridge is leftover from last week. Nam went south Let's see what the models show today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM actually went north from what is was showing yesterday along with models like Euro and Ukmet. All the 0z guidance shifted warmer like it has all winter. Even record blocking can't save us from the excessive warmth. This easily would've been a big snowstorm a decade or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM actually went north from what is was showing yesterday along with models like Euro and Ukmet. All the 0z guidance shifted warmer like it has all winter. There will be a limit though Then we have to see where the ccb sets up. Very interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Even record blocking can't save us from the excessive warmth. This easily would've been a big snowstorm a decade or so ago. This has nothing to do with the year showing on a calendar or the month in which it's occurring. Did we not have a 30" 2 years ago? Did we not have a large snow storm just 2 months ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Not really a fan of the chance of some snow near the end after over 90% of the event is rain on the front end along the coast. Remember March 2001 ? We can always hope for that to happen here lol The transfer will be the key here. I think we will all see some snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: This has nothing to do with the year showing on a calendar or the month in which it's occurring. Did we not have a 30" 2 years ago? Did we not have a large snow storm just 2 months ago? Blocking doesn't mean anything at all if we have a favorable Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Remember March 2001 ? We can always hope for that to happen here lol The transfer will be the key here. I think we will all see some snow at the end Wasn't March '01 one of the most epic busts of all time down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Some snow after 1-2 inches of rain isn't my idea of a fun March storm. For the coastal regions yes but in areas in NWNJ and the HV , they will go under a WS Warning before this is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: Wasn't March '01 one of the most epic busts of all time down there? Not for the CT coast. New Haven area received around a foot. SW CT coastal area received 5 to 10. All of the above was after over an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: For the coastal regions yes but in areas in NWNJ and the HV , they will go under a WS Warning before this is over. Just hoping for 2.5 inches on the CT coast to get to seasonal average. I think this is doable IF yesterday's NAM and EURO depiction come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, Hoth said: Wasn't March '01 one of the most epic busts of all time down there? Yes but let's reverse that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Some snow after 1-2 inches of rain isn't my idea of a fun March storm. Exactly. This looks more like a typical noreaster with 1-2 inches of rain and minor to moderate coastal flooding due to the full moon. YAWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 March 2001. I bet the majority of this forum would take it now in a heartbeat save NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: March 2001. I bet the majority of this forum would take it now in a heartbeat save NJ. This was actually the second biggest bust of all time here, second to only January 25-28, 2015 where a forecast of 24-36" 24 hours out yielded flurries for about five minutes. At least in March 2001 we had a few inches of slop, but the forecast at the time was for a record breaking snowstorm. Schools closed for two days in advance and we might have received 4" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This was actually the second biggest bust of all time here, second to only January 25-28, 2015 where a forecast of 24-36" 24 hours out yielded flurries for about five minutes. At least in March 2001 we had a few inches of slop, but the forecast at the time was for a record breaking snowstorm. Schools closed for two days in advance and we might have received 4" total. March 2001 just 20-25 miles NE of you I ended up with 15 inches from that storm most of it on the back end in about a 4-5 hour period. Kept waiting and waiting and it finally delievered something tangible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 20-25 miles NE of you I ended up with 15 inches from that storm most of it on the back end in about a 4-5 hour period. Kept waiting and waiting and it finally delievered something tangible. There might have actually been an inch or two in Mahwah where I currently live but I used to live in Pompton Plains which is in Morris County. And yes, it was very frustrating watching the radar hit a brick wall just to my East. Like I said, we had heavy flurries which commenced late that night and I thought finally it's coming, but it was very short lived and didn't even accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If I remember correctly with the January 15 storm, most of the guidance shifted East the day before the storm, but the Euro held serve, and mostly everyone here strongly believed in the Euro because it had almost never been that wrong at such a short lead time. Well the Euro was knocked down a few pegs that night, because it busted by about 100 miles less than 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I don’t see why anyone here can be disappointed. This has always been a rain event for the coast. The real issue is the polar vortex split sending all of the cold air into Europe. Had we had a better air mass in place we would be talking a MECs. Even then there would still be rain issues on the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This has always been a rain event for the coast. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t see why anyone here can be disappointed. This has always been a rain event for the coast. The real issue is the polar vortex split sending all of the cold air into Europe. Had we had a better air mass in place we would be talking a MECs. Even then there would still be rain issues on the immediate coast It doesn't help when you have a whole handful of posters misleading people into thinking that snow for the coast was a real possibility. If, and that's a big if, the Euro ends up being mostly correct, then a lot of us could see snow, even down to the coast. But the rest of the guidance doesn't really support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nam anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Nam anyone ? Still running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Rain commences around 18z Thursday afternoon from West to East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Surface low already into the lower 990's by Friday morning about 100 miles off the Delmarva, heavy rain over the area, lighter on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Friday morning, SLP continues to deepen into the 980's, heavy rain overspreading the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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