Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 45 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s our absurd NAM run we can count on for every storm. I’m still waiting on the 36” of snow it gave me 24 hours before the 2/8/13 storm. Pretty sure this one goes south of Cape Cod given the block. Gave us (you and I) 50"+ inside 24 hours of the start Jan 2015 ("Juno"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gave us (you and I) 50"+ inside 24 hours of the start Jan 2015 ("Juno"). Love me some model snow. Way easier to shovel than the other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ryan Maue just posted the 00z GFS stalls the storm for 6-12 hrs over Connecticut with near hurricane force gusts battering the New England coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Ryan Maue just posted the 00z GFS stalls the storm for 6-12 hrs over Connecticut with near hurricane force gusts battering the New England coast Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I’m still waiting on the 36” of snow it gave me 24 hours before the 2/8/13 storm. I'm still waiting for it to melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I'm still waiting for it to melt haha me too. 30" here. Still my favorite, 16" in five hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 There is no way this is going that far north with the strongly -NAO. I had said today I'm afraid the Op Euro was too far northI'm really beginning to think this is a hard hit for the tri state area, winter wise. Thoughts? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 My idea hasn’t changed. Maybe tomorrow afternoon it will if we keep seeing these weird solutions. I think we have a primary that goes to about Erie and another low that heads east from ACY. The question then becomes how fast it bombs and the upper dynamics take over- right off the NJ coast or off Cape Cod. If it’s sooner, NYC area has a chance at enough snow to accumulate in the CCB, maybe a few inches if lucky. If it doesn’t really bomb until off Cape Cod, it’ll be a fairly routine storm for most of us except far north and elevated. In that case I’d avoid the New England forum since they’ll mostly get buried and the coast gets slapped hard with a climo reminder. The upper air system looks now like it’s heading far enough north to introduce mid level dry air and keep rain amounts to 1-3” for most, which won’t cause any significant river issues. The coastal low looks to make good enough eastern progress to prevent major coastal flood problems (should be minor to moderate), and winds don’t seem like they’ll be crazy either. Upton was right to go conservative overall IMO. I’d bet on the worst impacts being centered on I-90. I doubt the NAM like solutions that drive the low into CT/MA because of the block, but I’m also not buying the sheared out, inverted trough look given the strength of the upper air system and also the block slowing it down. I see this consolidating and bombing somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Guys in the New England forum are puking over the Ukie solution,,,,,saying it shows warm n rain,,,,,anyone have it to post and will the Euro follow suit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 30 minutes ago, L.I.Pete said: haha me too. 30" here. Still my favorite, 16" in five hours or so. I think I ended up with 10" or so, maybe 12" but only after an infuriatingly long period of heavy rain then sleet. I remember flipping out at how fast the rest of the island was changing to snow and I was staying sleet. We finally did go to town but the best banding was 30-50 miles east of me towards you. It was still 2" per hour at times here. That rain and sleet period cost me at least 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Guys in the New England forum are puking over the Ukie solution,,,,,saying it shows warm n rain,,,,,anyone have it to post and will the Euro follow suit ? I'm not dropping my idea yet. If models are still doing this at 12z, they may be onto something. The Euro was the most sheared out and south last run, so that would be a big change this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think I ended up with 10" or so, maybe 12" but only after an infuriatingly long period of heavy rain then sleet. I remember flipping out at how fast the rest of the island was changing to snow and I was staying sleet. We finally did go to town but the best banding was 30-50 miles east of me towards you. It was still 2" per hour at times here. That rain and sleet period cost me at least 6". That’s it? 18” in wantagh 7 miles to the ene. I agree with everything in your other post so I really don’t have much to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s it? 18” in wantagh 7 miles to the ene. I agree with everything in your other post so I really don’t have much to add. It may have been 12" but no way it was 18". The total given to Upton for LB was 10" which is plausible. There just seemed to be a really stubborn warm air pocket that stuck over the immediate shore down here that cost us at least an hour or two of the big snow rates. I remember reading the SNOW!!! posts from elsewhere on the island as sleet kept pinging on my window. RVC and Woodmere look to have been 12-13" based on the Upton reports, and the border with Suffolk was 18" from Massapequa to East Norwich. A very minor tick colder here early on and west with the banding would've made it 18-20" countywide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It may have been 12" but no way it was 18". The total given to Upton for LB was 10" which is plausible. There just seemed to be a really stubborn warm air pocket that stuck over the immediate shore down here that cost us at least an hour or two of the big snow rates. I remember reading the SNOW!!! posts from elsewhere on the island as sleet kept pinging on my window. RVC and Woodmere look to have been 12-13" based on the Upton reports, and the border with Suffolk was 18" from Massapequa to East Norwich. A very minor tick colder here early on and west with the banding would've made it 18-20" countywide. Too bad you missed Jan 2016 "Jonas", it's what put Nemo, Juno, etc, in the rearview mirror for me. Going forward with winters, I dont think we've seen our last 30"+ snowstorm of the decade, let alone century. Three things seem to be on a huge uptick- record warm months, 3"+ rainfalls, and 30"+ snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Too bad you missed Jan 2016 "Jonas", it's what put Nemo, Juno, etc, in the rearview mirror for me. Going forward with winters, I dont think we've seen our last 30"+ snowstorm of the decade, let alone century. Three things seem to be on a huge uptick- record warm months, 3"+ rainfalls, and 30"+ snowstorms. Don't even get me started. Pretty much everyone I talk to here say it was the most snow they've seen in one storm. All I saw was the sun in mid 70s temps. I remember a brief line of showers passing through Austin the day before it grew into the snowpocalypse you had. I would've flew home had a big hit been likely 24 hours out. It was another one that snuck up last second, after I could've made plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Don't even get me started. Pretty much everyone I talk to here say it was the most snow they've seen in one storm. All I saw was the sun in mid 70s temps. I remember a brief line of showers passing through Austin the day before it grew into the snowpocalypse you had. I would've flew home had a big hit been likely 24 hours out. It was another one that snuck up last second, after I could've made plans. Nearest comparison I can come up with is Feb 1983. That snuck up in a similar way. It also made up for the first Feb 2010 storm that didn't. With all of the storms the east coast has seen since the 90s, I think Jan 2016 has to be considered the highest impact storm since Jan 1996. - Yep, ahead of Boxing Day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Don't even get me started. Pretty much everyone I talk to here say it was the most snow they've seen in one storm. All I saw was the sun in mid 70s temps. I remember a brief line of showers passing through Austin the day before it grew into the snowpocalypse you had. I would've flew home had a big hit been likely 24 hours out. It was another one that snuck up last second, after I could've made plans. Definitly the big one for Lb over to jfk. Eastern Nassau was a little less. As great of a storm as it was it didn’t have the furry of Boxing Day. It lacked very strong winds and drifting some of the other greats had. Also rates were a consistent 2” hour but never had the 4” hour pure white out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Definitly the big one for Lb over to jfk. Eastern Nassau was a little less. As great of a storm as it was it didn’t have the furry of Boxing Day. It lacked very strong winds and drifting some of the other greats had. Also rates were a consistent 2” hour but never had the 4” hour pure white out. I saw video from the boardwalk during the height of it-looked epic, but not ferocious like the Jan blizzard this year or Boxing Day. I would take the massive snow total and long duration though. The Jan blizzard this year would've been an all time great if it lasted 4 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Definitly the big one for Lb over to jfk. Eastern Nassau was a little less. As great of a storm as it was it didn’t have the furry of Boxing Day. It lacked very strong winds and drifting some of the other greats had. Also rates were a consistent 2” hour but never had the 4” hour pure white out. It was a lot like Feb 1983 in that respect, but it's nice to be able to say I saw a 30" snowstorm and documented it on 64 GB of SD cards (pictures and video.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I saw video from the boardwalk during the height of it-looked epic, but not ferocious like the Jan blizzard this year or Boxing Day. I would take the massive snow total and long duration though. The Jan blizzard this year would've been an all time great if it lasted 4 more hours. It also completely blew PD2 out of the water and that's saying a lot for this region where we had over 2 feet of snow in PD2. Actually I found the resemblances interesting between Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016. And they all occurred in moderate or strong El Ninos. I'd rather see an El Nino over a La Nina even if it's a "super" El Nino. 1995-96 and 2010-11 notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looks like 1-3 inches on the Euro for NYC with alot more as you head north and west . This storm isn't done shifting either direction right now The whole northeast including the coast would have gotten crushed if there was more cold air. The h5 low is closed off in a perfect spot on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Looks like 1-3 inches on the Euro for NYC with alot more as you head north and west . This storm isn't done shifting either direction right now The whole northeast including the coast would have gotten crushed if there was more cold air. The h5 low is closed off in a perfect spot on the Euro Keep us posted on storm 2 on the Euro also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like 1-3 inches on the Euro for NYC with alot more as you head north and west . This storm isn't done shifting either direction right now The whole northeast including the coast would have gotten crushed if there was more cold air. The h5 low is closed off in a perfect spot on the Euro Still a huge amount of uncertainty with this storm IMO, the models have been all over the place. For those people who thought we would be able to start pinning down details yesterday that was certainly not the case and may still be another 24 hours before that even happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 is 2/26/10 an analog for this storm? 0z Euro kind of has that final result in regards to distribution of snow. Regardless still looks great for NW areas on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, snywx said: is 2/26/10 an analog for this storm? 0z Euro kind of has that final result in regards to distribution of snow. Regardless still looks great for NW areas on that run Cutoff is similiar but there was more cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cutoff is similiar but there was more cold air to work with I was specifically referring to snow distribution. The current airmass is pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, snywx said: I was specifically referring to snow distribution. The current airmass is pitiful. The depiction on the Euro has the big snow amounts way further west than the 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If I had to choose between a -NAO or a +PNA , I would choose a + PNA. The favorable Pacific thrumphs a favorable Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: If I had to choose between a -NAO or a +PNA , I would choose a + PNA. The favorable Pacific thrumphs a favorable Atlantic. Well yes because we are downstream from the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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