NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The 18z GFS just took a huge step towards the colder Euro and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 We saw 2-3 inches of snow on western Long Island behind the December 1992 storm in a marginal setup like this and the CCB was probably 1/10th of what it will be in this event and this probably has more cold air too. I definitely could see big snows in the metro area but the core of the CCB will have to pass overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The problem with the 18z GFS is that it tracks the 500mb too far North so we dry slot. You want that to track over S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? Before the models showed you a big storm I and others posted that it was coming Many and I mean many of us away had this welll before the models had it Then before the models started to focus on the CCB we told you watch for this to flip on the backside, it wasn't all wishful thinking. You don't understand the pattern , you don't understand what driving a deep ULL over the BM will do in the midlevels and your waiting for the models to tell you what should happen when the pattern should already tell you that you are looking at a different animal The pattern has dictated this , a - 5 SD NAO was never going to allow LP to drive into S Canada , which some bought 5 days ago because the model told you so. We said it would spin away and it has , so having a closed low belly underneath was always going to produce heavy rain and once out over the warm water , this was always going to deepen with high winds causing beach erosion. And finally we said this is really going to paste N and W into SNE and it will probably accumulate all the way to the coast There is a reason we are a step ahead of some of the guidance , these events are similar to storms in the past and their reaction is to the overall atmosphere and not personal opinion Again you are missing what systems like these do My last wild card is LI , that air may mix down with enough precip while it's still windy to cause a real show there as this retrogrades and pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just read the upton AFD and the big take away is they are not really on board (yet) with snow or major coastal flooding. They admit they are being conservative in regards to snow for inland areas. I think this really illustrates how this board is too model dependent. When models showed some less snowy outcomes for the last event many here jumped on uptons snow numbers. They were slightly high for the city but where overall very good. Have they had Big misses? Of course (no need to name them). But I like the fact that they are letting this play out a little more before taking out their “jump to conclusions mat” (office space reference) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 26 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Before the models showed you a big storm I and others posted that it was coming Many and I mean many of us away had this welll before the models had it Then before the models started to focus on the CCB we told you watch for this to flip on the backside, it wasn't all wishful thinking. You don't understand the pattern , you don't understand what driving a deep ULL over the BM will do in the midlevels and your waiting for the models to tell you what should happen when the pattern should already tell you that you are looking at a different animal The pattern has dictated this , a - 5 SD NAO was never going to allow LP to drive into S Canada , which some bought 5 days ago because the model told you so. We said it would spin away and it has , so having a closed low belly underneath was always going to produce heavy rain and once out over the warm water , this was always going to deepen with high winds causing beach erosion. And finally we said this is really going to paste N and W into SNE and it will probably accumulate all the way to the coast There is a reason we are a step ahead of some of the guidance , these events are similar to storms in the past and their reaction is to the overall atmosphere and not personal opinion Again you are missing what systems like these do My last wild card is LI , that air may mix down with enough precip while it's still windy to cause a real show there as this retrogrades and pulls away Whose coast PB? Because a paste job far NW and coastal CT or MA doesn't mean much to me....so far this is still a powerful rainstorm for us, no? Did I miss something? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Whose coast PB? Because a paste job far NW and coastal CT or MA doesn't mean much to me....so far this is still a powerful rainstorm for us, no? Did I miss something? Serious question. Its a good thing this isnt the weatherpruf subforum then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 March madness has already descended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Whose coast PB? Because a paste job far NW and coastal CT or MA doesn't mean much to me....so far this is still a powerful rainstorm for us, no? Did I miss something? Serious question. It’s a very fluid situation. Many models have trended colder and certain models are now showing accumulation to YOUR COAST. We still have nearly three days til the storm begins. Those who have been talking in absolutes may yet get burned again. We shal seeshall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 27 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its a good thing this isnt the weatherpruf subforum then. Are you saying I'm self-centered and don't care about anyone else? I care about the rest of the subforum. Seriously. Well, not really..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 28 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: It’s a very fluid situation. Many models have trended colder and certain models are now showing accumulation to YOUR COAST. We still have nearly three days til the storm begins. Those who have been talking in absolutes may yet get burned again. We shal seeshall see Actually I'm not on the coast per se....I'm on the Arthur Kill just above Raritan Bay....the question of how much the coastal forecast affects us is interesting. In general, it depends..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Actually I'm not on the coast per se....I'm on the Arthur Kill just above Raritan Bay....the question of how much the coastal forecast affects us is interesting. In general, it depends..... I would say you have a better chance of being swept out to sea than seeing accumulating snow out of this storm, but then again, that could be false, so wouldn't want to post wrong information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Actually I'm not on the coast per se....I'm on the Arthur Kill just above Raritan Bay....the question of how much the coastal forecast affects us is interesting. In general, it depends..... There will be some beach erosion and heavy winds for your area and most of this sub forum the question is if we get into the Ccb heavy dynamics could flip you to heavy snow as shown by the euro and nam to some extent. Mesos should begin figuring this out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Put the 18z NAVGEM in the Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 From the New England thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I would say you have a better chance of being swept out to sea than seeing accumulating snow out of this storm, but then again, that could be false, so wouldn't want to post wrong information. I have a 14 foot aluminum boat built in 1962...so no worries..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just read the upton AFD and the big take away is they are not really on board (yet) with snow or major coastal flooding. They admit they are being conservative in regards to snow for inland areas. I think this really illustrates how this board is too model dependent. When models showed some less snowy outcomes for the last event many here jumped on uptons snow numbers. They were slightly high for the city but where overall very good. Have they had Big misses? Of course (no need to name them). But I like the fact that they are letting this play out a little more before taking out their “jump to conclusions mat” (office space reference) Going conservative is smart when there’s so much disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z RGEM Wind gusts on this run are insane NYC sees 70+ Cape cod sees near 100 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z RGEM Wind gusts on this run are insane NYC sees 70+ Cape cod sees near 100 mph Just to confirm, those units are metric... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So 40mph for NYC and 60 mph for the Cape.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: So 40mph for NYC and 60 mph for the Cape.... 120km per hour is equal to about 75 mph. 75km per hour is equal to about 47 mph. For here, that's nothing too crazy. The 1/4 blizzard had stronger winds for sure here. And it's the extended RGEM so it's likely wrong, but it's doing what I warned about-bombing the low too late for much snow in this subforum outside elevated areas, and the upper air system appears north enough to dryslot from I-80 south. It comes together in time for an easterly moisture jet to bury eastern SNE. For something like the NAM to happen, this has to bomb sooner, closer to the NJ coast instead of off Cape Cod. By then it's too late for more than a consolation 1-3" near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nam is weak and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Definitely not weak. It’s a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Bomb for sne and nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Yup they get crushed. Powerful storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Model mayhem continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 There is no way this is going that far north with the strongly -NAO. I had said today I'm afraid the Op Euro was too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Yup they get crushed. Powerful storm. Huge snowstorm for interior NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It’s our absurd NAM run we can count on for every storm. I’m still waiting on the 36” of snow it gave me 24 hours before the 2/8/13 storm. Pretty sure this one goes south of Cape Cod given the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It's like clockwork, each model has their known times for "weird" runs. Honestly though this winter has shown we still have a long way to go when it comes to forecasting as the models have been less then stellar even in the shorter ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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