jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Hate to say it but the Euro is likely eye candy. An inverted trough-esque outcome like that is unlikely. What’s more likely is a consolidated storm closer to the coast that has worse overall impacts with wind and rain but unfortunately for us also the colder air and snow further north for the worst of it. The back end could be snow for the coast from the upper air low, but it wouldn’t be significant. Maybe there could be a few inches if it’s heavier and it falls at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The ECMWF and now NAM following the 12z RGEM's shift toward a wet snow event, especially north and west of the City suggests that this event requires attention. My confidence in mostly a rain event in the City and some accumulation in the City's far northern and western suburbs has diminished somewhat. We'll see what tonight's guidance shows, though the GFS's remaining an outlier should a colder consensus develop wouldn't be all that surprising. Here's your CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 28 minutes ago, snywx said: Agreed. I do have alittle more confidence that snow will be falling up here now though. I think @Animal has the best shot at anything significant Exactly, this is the storm where his extra 1000’ mean much more then normal. I think you have a good shot at at least some accumulations too. The city... yeah not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hate to say it but the Euro is likely eye candy. An inverted trough-esque outcome like that is unlikely. What’s more likely is a consolidated storm closer to the coast that has worse overall impacts with wind and rain but unfortunately for us also the colder air and snow further north for the worst of it. The back end could be snow for the coast from the upper air low, but it wouldn’t be significant. Maybe there could be a few inches if it’s heavier and it falls at night. The NAM has a full fledged CCB that actually looks underdeveloped to me on the NW side of the 500mb low considering the dynamics in place and a sub 980mb low. Look how strong the 500mb winds are on Friday afternoon. Strong precipitation should be falling Friday morning which will help to dynamically cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hate to say it but the Euro is likely eye candy. An inverted trough-esque outcome like that is unlikely. What’s more likely is a consolidated storm closer to the coast that has worse overall impacts with wind and rain but unfortunately for us also the colder air and snow further north for the worst of it. The back end could be snow for the coast from the upper air low, but it wouldn’t be significant. Maybe there could be a few inches if it’s heavier and it falls at night. Would agree, but the NAM is 4"-6"+ for NYC/LI and more snow backing in at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is exactly why you will find me at 2,000’ in southern Vermont for this storm. I’ll make sure to take lots of pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Would agree, but the NAM is 4"-6"+ for NYC/LI and more snow backing in at hour 84. At hour 84 the storm is already filling and weakening. I highly doubt that's 4-6" for the coast even with strong dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This is exactly why you will find me at 2,000’ in southern Vermont for this storm. I’ll make sure to take lots of pics. It's a really tough call for Southern Vermont. Some of the guidance has the cutoff South of the MA/VT line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Don't look now, but the models could be trending to a snowier solution. Early March storms are finicky and I wouldn't put stock in any solution this far out. I also wouldn't rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Atlantic SSTs are juiced.. DJF heights in the central Atlantic were warmer than any Winter since 1948 and AMO is record highest right now like +.38 to .25(2nd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Don't look now, but the models could be trending to a snowier solution. Early March storms are finicky and I wouldn't put stock in any solution this far out. I also wouldn't rule anything out. Yeah, are you old enough to remember this gem? Almost 17 years to the day. Wow is that look at H5 similar. Even has the big trough into California. This is a great example of what could go wrong with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM has a full fledged CCB that actually looks underdeveloped to me on the NW side of the 500mb low considering the dynamics in place and a sub 980mb low. Look how strong the 500mb winds are on Friday afternoon. Strong precipitation should be falling Friday morning which will help to dynamically cool. Hopefully we can get the upper air system to bomb a little faster so the dynamics kick in sooner and we can cool enough for snow. If it waits until it’s south of Cape Cod, it won’t do much good here. That’ll bring in some back end snow, but the heavy stuff will be north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully we can get the upper air system to bomb a little faster so the dynamics kick in sooner and we can cool enough for snow. If it waits until it’s south of Cape Cod, it won’t do much good here. That’ll bring in some back end snow, but the heavy stuff will be north of here. I'm hoping for whatever solution delivers the most rain and wind to my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 EE rule in effect? Lol.. ahh those were the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 A possible outcome if the NAM is right is something like the 3/7/13 storm, which was an easterly flow-driven massive snow event in SNE, and a moderate event down to NYC with several inches for most (if I recall it right). It's just really hard for me to see a way this can be a significant snow event anywhere near the coast with what we have to work with. Something like 2-4" can happen if we get lucky with wraparound snow from the upper low. This is essentially what the NAM has here, after a push of rain initially brings an inch or so, then a dryslot and wraparound. The upper air system as a whole is too far north (which would cause a dryslot to come in) and doesn't mature in time. It's essentially a late developing miller B off a primary that cuts to Erie. Can't think of really any good snow outcomes for NYC off that. It is likely better for northern areas that are elevated, which are right on the line for something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: A possible outcome if the NAM is right is something like the 3/7/13 storm, which was an easterly flow-driven massive snow event in SNE, and a moderate event down to NYC with several inches for most (if I recall it right). It's just really hard for me to see a way this can be a significant snow event anywhere near the coast with what we have to work with. Something like 2-4" can happen if we get lucky with wraparound snow from the upper low. This is essentially what the NAM has here, after a push of rain initially brings an inch or so, then a dryslot and wraparound. The upper air system as a whole is too far north (which would cause a dryslot to come in) and doesn't mature in time. It's essentially a late developing miller B off a primary that cuts to Erie. Can't think of really any good snow outcomes for NYC off that. It is likely better for northern areas that are elevated, which are right on the line for something more significant. The solution the NAM is showing is ludicrous. But it’s the 18z NAM. It will look 180 degrees different at 0z. It’s the NAM being the NAM and there will be a lot of disappointed people tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah, are you old enough to remember this gem? Almost 17 years to the day. Wow is that look at H5 similar. Even has the big trough into California. This is a great example of what could go wrong with this setup. The March 2001 storm was the biggest bust I've ever seen. Was working as a waitor at the OG back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Even the 12z Euro as cold as it was is still all rain for Long Island. I'm not a snow map guy but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18Z German, mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I'm not a snow map guy but... Doesnt matter. Its ludicrous. It just is. Trust us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, snywx said: EE rule in effect? Lol.. ahh those were the days That's had some merit again on a few notable occasions this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm not a snow map guy but... Okay we all know that the WxBell maps count accumulating snow where it shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Juliancolton said: That's had some merit again on a few notable occasions this season. looks like some local offices are giving little if any weight toward the GFS and leaning toward the NAM/euro combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The solution the NAM is showing is ludicrous. But it’s the 18z NAM. It will look 180 degrees different at 0z. It’s the NAM being the NAM and there will be a lot of disappointed people tonight Everyone knows how I feel about the NAM but I'm just wondering why you feel it's ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Okay we all know that the WxBell maps count accumulating snow where it shouldn't. It never counts rain as snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: It never counts rain as snow though. But it counts white rain as snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Everyone knows how I feel about the NAM but I'm just wonder why you feel it's ludicrous. The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: But it counts white rain as snow and sleet. I'm not sure about that. I've seen many snow maps bust low because they thought surface temps would be 33-35 when it was 31-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? There are intense dynamics here, so common sense and analogs can’t really be used a source of analysis. The omega and saturated column on the 18z NAM is conducive for evaporational cooling and heavy precipitation. The GFS’s thermal profiles are also consistently questionable, and its capabilities in regards to forecasting strong cutoff EC cyclones are not great. Earlier this winter the NAM vastly outperformed the GFS due to its superior handle on dynamics and banding, which were incremental to the development of that system. And yes, I believe (as well as other meteorologists and respected hobbyists) that the 18z NAM supplied a plausible solution that should be taken into account. Throwing out the NAM with basically no scientific analysis is foolish, especially when it has performed well with a major storm a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? It did take a step towards the Euro at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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