NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: That 32 degree line I don't agree with because northern Most Bergen County is on the warm side of it and far southern NJ is on the colder side of it plus the light blue line should be extended into interior northern NJ Feel free to make your own forecast, this is mine. And I didn't draw the 32 degree line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, friedmators said: Euro went nuts of course. 8-12" for the city. This is almost like an inverted trough. The actual SLP is hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Thoughts on the 12Z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is almost like an inverted trough. The actual SLP is hundreds of miles offshore. Umm cmc is the best model and is close to the Euro solution to this except it shows rain but all the columns are cold enough for snow. I'll be back tomorrow with my other 5 posts and post away I still think we get a good hit out of this. I would extend that hit a little more northeastward though. This is a blue bomb guys right off the coast off long island and it will throw a tone of moisture to especially our area which will eventually dynamically cool us and snow! You will snow with big ads flakes and accumulate expect all models to catch up a low loop like my map shows starting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Thoughts on the 12Z EURO? total BS 8 -12 inches ? I think Snowman has hacked into it -lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Thoughts on the 12Z EURO? It appears to be unlikely. The column is marginally cold (850 mb temperature ranging from a few tenths of a degree below 0°C to a few tenths of a degree above) and surface temperatures in and around the city around +2.0°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z Euro = Clear, undisputed outlier. NAM, GFS, CMC, ICON, UKMET look nothing at all like it. Like not even in the ballpark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: Euro = Clear, undisputed outlier. NAM, GFS, CMC, ICON, UKMET, look nothing at all like it. Like not even in the ballpark Well they all show a major storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It appears to be unlikely. The column is marginally cold (850 mb temperature ranging from a few tenths of a degree below 0°C to a few tenths of a degree above) and surface temperatures in and around the city around +2.0°C. What is the euro showing for Orange County ? On the phone so no access.. thanks don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 It's pretty bad how much disparity there is in a three day forecast, even with the strong blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I was told no snow for the metro so going with that..taking the plow off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, snywx said: What is the euro showing for Orange County ? On the phone so no access.. thanks don The column is a little cooler (around -1°C 850 mb temperatures) and below zero until near the surface. 6" or more if the ECMWF is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The column is a little cooler (around -1°C 850 mb temperatures) and below zero until near the surface. 6" or more if the ECMWF is right. Thank you.. def an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, Dan76 said: I was told no snow for the metro so going with that..taking the plow off. Even the 12z Euro as cold as it was is still all rain for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 For purposes of comparison with the 2/27/2018 12z ECMWF, below is the 12z RGEM, which also is a snowy outlier. For perspective, the air mass involved is not nearly as cold at the mid- and upper-levels as was the case during the historic April Fool’s snowstorm of 1997 in southern New England and interior sections of this subforum. The difference is about 2°C. Therefore, at this point in time, I don’t think either the RGEM or ECMWF solutions are likely outcomes. I believe either solution is very unlikely right now. A scenario where a cold rain mixes occasionally with snow and sleet in the City (and nearby suburbs) and some accumulation occurs across far northwestern New Jersey and eastward across Orange and Dutchess Counties is not out of the question. Wetter and warmer solutions are also very much on the proverbial table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Euro makes the most sense with the snow. This pattern supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I want to try what the Euro is smoking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I want to try what the Euro is smoking I doubt it's wrong this close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt it's wrong this close Perhaps a compromise between the Euro and other guidance is the most likely outcome, unless all other guidance caves to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 S REF have about 2 inches for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 26 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I want to try what the Euro is smoking Seriously. Probably less then 5% chance of verifying. Although a period of wet snow does appear a little more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Seriously. Probably less then 5% chance of verifying. Although a period of wet snow does appear a little more likely. Explain why ? I have been on the snow train for a while. This pattern does support the Euro idea. Now the SREFea are jumping aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Explain why ? I have been on the snow train for a while. This pattern does support the Euro idea. Now the SREFea are jumping aboard. You’re never not on the snow train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 EPS mean supports the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Seriously. Probably less then 5% chance of verifying. Although a period of wet snow does appear a little more likely. Agreed. I do have alittle more confidence that snow will be falling up here now though. I think @Animal has the best shot at anything significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM is improved. Crippling, damaging snowstorm for Western New England. We get the CCB with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam has a few inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: NAM is improved. Crippling, damaging snowstorm for Western New England. We get the CCB with marginal temps. The ECMWF and now NAM following the 12z RGEM's shift toward a wet snow event, especially north and west of the City suggests that this event requires attention. My confidence in mostly a rain event in the City and some accumulation in the City's far northern and western suburbs has diminished somewhat. We'll see what tonight's guidance shows, though the GFS's remaining an outlier should a colder consensus develop wouldn't be all that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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