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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000

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16 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

With the occluding low, there are going to be "bubbles" of air wrapping around so that 850s could be all over the place with little regard to north- south.  The 3k is trying to depict this and you can see the result on the 850charts and in some of the NAM p-type charts (blob of snow over the ocean south of LI while LI and NYC rain, etc ), but queue the butterfly effect.  It may be correct in a general sense, but if it pins the details down, it's a heckofa model.

 

 

And so it comes to pass...

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17 minutes ago, friedmators said:

These rates ain't cutting it here around the 78/287 intersection. 

Same at the 80/287 intersection...white rain.

Winter storm warning in effect back home; received a text from family in Randolph, looks like a winter wonderland.

Should be a fun ride home up the mountain.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugh what could've been. Had the airmass been just slightly colder this would've been a MECS. 

I guess any snow is a win considering it wasn't even in the discussion a few days ago.

it probably would have been our biggest march storm of all time

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1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Same at the 80/287 intersection...white rain.

Winter storm warning in effect back home; received a text from family in Randolph, looks like a winter wonderland.

Should be a fun ride home up the mountain.

Quote

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts to 10 inches at elevations above 700 feet and two inches or less in the valleys near Interstates 287 and 78.

I'm surprised at the bolded section.  I'm not far below 700ft, but don't expect anything near that.  Coming up the hill from Riverdale you could see a bit more accumulation, and closer to home the snow is more noticeable on the grass.

 

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10 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm surprised at the bolded section.  I'm not far below 700ft, but don't expect anything near that.  Coming up the hill from Riverdale you could see a bit more accumulation, and closer to home the snow is more noticeable on the grass.

 

Stony Brook Road/Kinnelon Road should be getting popped pretty good I would think.

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The 500mb jet hasn't even really started cranking yet. 
500mb_sf.gif?1520012317325&key=17c3d48b7653d59ba336a0a7de941116b789c8d722ae2024a1f0588c7ead1e5a
This is why I keep telling my colleagues tonight is going to be rough. The storm is also down to 974mb as per various observations and the other forum.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This is why I keep telling my colleagues tonight is going to be rough. The storm is also down to 974mb as per various observations and the other forum.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

A few runs had this going sub 970mb, we shall see.

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Just now, snywx said:

No its not lol.. im at 850' w/ 1" while places that have half my elevation have 5". There are random warm pockets throughout the area

Warm pockets aside, elevation is pretty important, at least from what I see.  Accumulations steadily increased closer to home, and areas in Western Morris county are doing much better than I am.

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30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The mid-level centers are still decoupled, but you can see the progress that the 500mb low has made since this morning. I would think the peak intensity should be realized early this afternoon before the slow weakening trend begins.

Light winds up here. If I have 10 mph winds its high. The obs from KSWF is north at 16. Quite the underperformance. Don't know if it will increase later on.

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Mount Holly update last hour:

The highest snowfall report we have received so far is 10.2" in
Montague, NJ (northwestern tip of NJ at 1000 ft elev). We will likely see locally high amounts approaching 15" at the highest elevations in northern Monroe and northern Sussex Counties. With
the winds ramping up this afternoon, expect extensive power outages along the ridges that are under a Winter Storm Warning.

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13 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Light winds up here. If I have 10 mph winds its high. The obs from KSWF is north at 16. Quite the underperformance. Don't know if it will increase later on.

Rockland is a friggin disaster. Trees down everywhere, wires down, its pretty insane.

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