friedmators Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 It’s mostly snow on 78 in Warren. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: OK guys, largely forgot about this storm, and media WNYC is only talking about being grazed by a storm with rain and maybe a little snow. To read here some of you still expect snow out of this: I have family that have to drive today in the afternoon, what gives? Northern Middlesex Co/SI border area. Spend more time in this forum and less time listening to the wnyc media. They are always late to the party. Your area is a question mark. Woodbridge is generally 5 degrees warmer than my area. Your elevation can't be more than 250' and your a lot closer to marine influence. I'm at 800', 40 miles west of NYC. In this type of situation all nuance factors need to be considered. With that said, I'm now all snow, at a moderate rate. Shed roofs are white, lawn is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: It’s mostly snow on 78 in Warren. Wow . Mostly rain back home. Getting ready for school. School I work at today is near Edison border, walking distance. Am worried about a changeover here with those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said: Spend more time in this forum and less time listening to the wnyc media. They are always late to the party. Your area is a question mark. Woodbridge is generally 5 degrees warmer than my area. Your elevation can't be more than 250' and your a lot closer to marine influence. I'm at 800', 40 miles west of NYC. In this type of situation all nuance factors need to be considered. With that said, I'm now all snow, at a moderate rate. Shed roofs are white, lawn is getting there. well last night when I hit the bed everyone here was like, forget it. And the media reports, sounded like no big deal. My area is always a guess, in most systems. Too far from the immediate coast for their weather, not far enough inland for theirs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, snywx said: I don't know man... im in northwest orange county and I can't manage to hold onto snow for more than 5 mins without flipping back to rain. Managed a coating here since 330am. Currently all rain at 33° That is surprising. I have quarter size flakes right now; but it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Mostly rain back home. Getting ready for school. School I work at today is near Edison border, walking distance. Am worried about a changeover here with those winds.Was rain in edison when I left. We went back to mostly rain now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I’m down to 35.5 degrees. Well below modeled and I have a sleet/snow/rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, eduggs said: What's your elevation? 600 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 54 minutes ago, snywx said: I don't know man... im in northwest orange county and I can't manage to hold onto snow for more than 5 mins without flipping back to rain. Managed a coating here since 330am. Currently all rain at 33° Downsloping off escarpment? Lots of reports of heavy accumulating snow in rel. low elevations of eastern Orange and Putnam counties, which is a little unusual while you're oscillating between rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 There's a warm layer somewhere between 800-925mb that's being dynamically mixed out... but not everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Downsloping off escarpment? Lots of reports of heavy accumulating snow in rel. low elevations of eastern Orange and Putnam counties, which is a little unusual while you're oscillating between rain and snow. Rain below 1000' here. Just took a 5 min drive to Greenville mountain. Heavy snow 3-4" there already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NWS still hasn't issued any winter weather bulletins here, yet I have a half inch of snow on all surfaces already and it's puking snow with poor visibility and slippery roads. Point and click still calling for half an inch of accumulation which I've already exceeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: I'm curious about what keeps warming the 925mb layer when all levels should be advecting cooler air in from the north, and heavy precip (granted based on banding) should be helping with dynamic cooling via melting. I see where the models are coming from, but there's no mechanism I can see that keeps that layer warm with the strong northerly flow. It's happeed to me before though, so the radar will really tell the tale. I'm not sure myself why that's the issue. Since that time, though, the ECMWF and NAM have come up with colder, snowier solutions. Things will bear watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just as a review, seeing lots of posts asking why some spots seeing rain while others lower/closer to coast are seeing snow. That's b/c notwithstanding trajectories, almost no CAA and so cooling all dynamic. Dynamic cooling caused by lift / adiabatic cooling (stronger under best lift, not necessarily inland) and b/c of energy to melt snow / phase change (not limited to inland). Because of the second term, a dynamically cooled column will often be nearly isothermal so elevation doesn't give you as much cooling as when the lapse rate is wet adiabatic, like in a typical storm. So someone under the ****ty rates / poor lift can be rain @1000ft and 33 while someone else under high rates / good lift can be @ sea level and 32, but if you were to go 1000 ft up they'd still only be at 32. Hence the ability to flip back and forth rain/snow quickly and patchily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I believe the reason for the sleet is because of the close proximity of the mid-level cyclones. You can see how the NAM had almost the whole area above freezing at 925mb at 4AM Now look how much its cooled by 9AM It's still going to be a problem for Long Island until mid-afternoon, that's why I don't like much snow there, but even they cool off as the storm begins to move South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Just as a review, seeing lots of posts asking why some spots seeing rain while others lower/closer to coast are seeing snow. That's b/c notwithstanding trajectories, almost no CAA and so cooling all dynamic. Dynamic cooling caused by lift / adiabatic cooling (stronger under best lift, not necessarily inland) and b/c of energy to melt snow / phase change (not limited to inland). Because of the second term, a dynamically cooled column will often be nearly isothermal so elevation doesn't give you as much cooling as when the lapse rate is wet adiabatic, like in a typical storm. So someone under the ****ty rates / poor lift can be rain @1000ft and 33 while someone else under high rates / good lift can be @ sea level and 32, but if you were to go 1000 ft up they'd still only be at 32. Hence the ability to flip back and forth rain/snow quickly and patchily. True, but honestly, precip should only intensify as the CCB pivots overhead and cranks. I wouldn't expect much of a flip flop under that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3km is a NYC and LI jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, ag3 said: 3km is a NYC and LI jackpot. When did they move long island to orange and rockland counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, BxEngine said: When did they move long island to orange county Ha. Sorry. I meant in the NYC metro area. I'm thrilled by this bust. Already have a solid coating on all cold surfaces and snowing light to moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Grass fully white now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, BxEngine said: When did they move long island to orange and rockland counties And Western Morris/Passaic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Sleet/snow/ rain in Centereach Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Hmm..is this snow actually going to change over back to rain in eastern Jersey? It's snowing pretty heavily down here by New Brunswick and HRRR continues to call for a changeover to rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 54 minutes ago, ag3 said: 3km is a NYC and LI jackpot. 3k NAM is about 25 miles east of 12k. For me that's a difference between 1 and 7 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Rgem joins the City Party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 12z Rgem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 59 minutes ago, ag3 said: Ha. Sorry. I meant in the NYC metro area. I'm thrilled by this bust. Already have a solid coating on all cold surfaces and snowing light to moderate. You still don't understand that Rockland and Orange Counties are part of the NYC metro area, or you just choose to ignore it, one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: 12z Rgem: I'll take the 12"+ it has for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Rgem joins the City Party While the snow is falling doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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