-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[ForestHillWx]

NEXRAD is showing Mt. Olive is transitioning to ice/snow. 7 miles north of me on route 206. No idea if it's accurate. 

Temp is now 35. Down 3 degrees in the hour. 

[dmillz25]

Down to 38 here. 39 in Central Park 

[Rtd208]

There is an obs thread guys.

[snywx]

Upton:

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Some changes made with the fcst this mrng.

The first is the expansion of the high wind wrng to the entire
area minus Putnam, Orange and wrn Passaic. In addition to this,
peak gusts have been increased across ern LI and ern CT to 70
mph.

The second change was to upgrade the winter weather advy for
wrn Passaic to a wrng. Snowfall totals in general were increased
for Orange and wrn Passaic.

An approximately 975 low is progged to be roughly 50 to 100
miles w of the benchmark at 18z. The 00Z RGEM/GFS/ECMWF, 3Z SREF
and 6Z NAM make up this grouping. The further wwd trend has
increased the wind threat, but has not made the snow/rain fcst
any less complicated.

While the cooling airmass associated with the upr low evidenced
by decreasing wet bulb zero heights remains a crucial component,
the wwd trend brings warmer air aloft in as well. Because of
these two factors, snowfall totals have been lowered from
roughly the Hudson River ewd, and increased elsewhere. Over a
foot of snow is now expected for some of the higher elevations
in Orange county.

Significant changes in snow amounts for the entire area are
possible with such little room for error thermally. The time
period thru noon will be critical for getting a handle of how
the rain/snow line is progressing.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Upton:

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Some changes made with the fcst this mrng.

The first is the expansion of the high wind wrng to the entire
area minus Putnam, Orange and wrn Passaic. In addition to this,
peak gusts have been increased across ern LI and ern CT to 70
mph.

The second change was to upgrade the winter weather advy for
wrn Passaic to a wrng. Snowfall totals in general were increased
for Orange and wrn Passaic.

An approximately 975 low is progged to be roughly 50 to 100
miles w of the benchmark at 18z. The 00Z RGEM/GFS/ECMWF, 3Z SREF
and 6Z NAM make up this grouping. The further wwd trend has
increased the wind threat, but has not made the snow/rain fcst
any less complicated.

While the cooling airmass associated with the upr low evidenced
by decreasing wet bulb zero heights remains a crucial component,
the wwd trend brings warmer air aloft in as well. Because of
these two factors, snowfall totals have been lowered from
roughly the Hudson River ewd, and increased elsewhere. Over a
foot of snow is now expected for some of the higher elevations
in Orange county.

Significant changes in snow amounts for the entire area are
possible with such little room for error thermally. The time
period thru noon will be critical for getting a handle of how
the rain/snow line is progressing.

Playing catch up, as always.

31.1 moderate snow, covering grass and starting to stick on the roads.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Playing catch up, as always.

31.1 moderate snow, covering grass and starting to stick on the roads.

What's your elevation?

[ForestHillWx]

7:00 am. Temp down to 33. Large flakes are mixing in. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

7:00 am. Temp down to 33. Large flakes are mixing in. 

OK guys, largely forgot about this storm, and media WNYC is only talking about being grazed by a storm with rain and maybe a little snow. To read here some of you still expect snow out of this: I have family that have to drive today in the afternoon, what gives? Northern Middlesex Co/SI border area.

[marsh]

Little slush on the deck, temp 35, elevation 230, Greenwich,CT

[MJO812]

HRRR now has 3-4 inches for NYC

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

HRRR now has 3-4 inches for NYC

I don't know man... im in northwest orange county and I can't manage to hold onto snow for more than 5 mins without flipping back to rain. Managed a coating here since 330am. 

Currently all rain at 33°

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

HRRR now has 3-4 inches for NYC

At this point I hopenot. People are going about with daily life and a sudden flip to heavy snow would be too hazardous.

[friedmators]

It’s mostly snow on 78 in Warren. Wow


.

[ForestHillWx]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

OK guys, largely forgot about this storm, and media WNYC is only talking about being grazed by a storm with rain and maybe a little snow. To read here some of you still expect snow out of this: I have family that have to drive today in the afternoon, what gives? Northern Middlesex Co/SI border area.

Spend more time in this forum and less time listening to the wnyc media. They are always late to the party. 

Your area is a question mark. Woodbridge is generally 5 degrees warmer than my area. Your elevation can't be more than 250' and your a lot closer to marine influence. I'm at 800', 40 miles west of NYC. In this type of situation all nuance factors need to be considered.

With that said, I'm now all snow, at a moderate rate. Shed roofs are white, lawn is getting there. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

It’s mostly snow on 78 in Warren. Wow


.

Mostly rain back home. Getting ready for school. School I work at today is near Edison border, walking distance. Am worried about a changeover here with those winds.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said:

Spend more time in this forum and less time listening to the wnyc media. They are always late to the party. 

Your area is a question mark. Woodbridge is generally 5 degrees warmer than my area. Your elevation can't be more than 250' and your a lot closer to marine influence. I'm at 800', 40 miles west of NYC. In this type of situation all nuance factors need to be considered.

With that said, I'm now all snow, at a moderate rate. Shed roofs are white, lawn is getting there. 

well last night when I hit the bed everyone here was like, forget it. And the media reports, sounded like no big deal. My area is always a guess, in most systems. Too far from the immediate coast for their weather, not far enough inland for theirs.....

[ForestHillWx]

7 minutes ago, snywx said:

I don't know man... im in northwest orange county and I can't manage to hold onto snow for more than 5 mins without flipping back to rain. Managed a coating here since 330am. 

Currently all rain at 33°

That is surprising. I have quarter size flakes right now; but it's all snow. 

[friedmators]

Mostly rain back home. Getting ready for school. School I work at today is near Edison border, walking distance. Am worried about a changeover here with those winds.

Was rain in edison when I left. We went back to mostly rain now.


.

[ag3]

I’m down to 35.5 degrees. Well below modeled and I have a sleet/snow/rain mix.

[tempestatis014]

Starting to see a few ice pellets mixing with mostly rain here at the shore. NAM still hinting at a good 4-6 for Central NJ

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

What's your elevation?

600 feet

[eduggs]

54 minutes ago, snywx said:

I don't know man... im in northwest orange county and I can't manage to hold onto snow for more than 5 mins without flipping back to rain. Managed a coating here since 330am. 

Currently all rain at 33°

Downsloping off escarpment?  Lots of reports of heavy accumulating snow in rel. low elevations of eastern Orange and Putnam counties, which is a little unusual while you're oscillating between rain and snow.

[eduggs]

There's a warm layer somewhere between 800-925mb that's being dynamically mixed out... but not everywhere.

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Downsloping off escarpment?  Lots of reports of heavy accumulating snow in rel. low elevations of eastern Orange and Putnam counties, which is a little unusual while you're oscillating between rain and snow.

Rain below 1000' here. Just took a 5 min drive to Greenville mountain. Heavy snow 3-4" there already

[NJwx85]

NWS still hasn't issued any winter weather bulletins here, yet I have a half inch of snow on all surfaces already and it's puking snow with poor visibility and slippery roads. Point and click still calling for half an inch of accumulation which I've already exceeded.

[tempestatis014]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-07-200-1-50-1&checked=map

The birth of a monster

 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I'm curious about what keeps warming the 925mb layer when all levels should be advecting cooler air in from the north, and heavy precip (granted based on banding) should be helping with dynamic cooling via melting. I see where the models are coming from, but there's no mechanism I can see that keeps that layer warm with the strong northerly flow. It's happeed to me before though, so the radar will really tell the tale. 

I'm not sure myself why that's the issue. Since that time, though, the ECMWF and NAM have come up with colder, snowier solutions. Things will bear watching.

[Drz1111]

Just as a review, seeing lots of posts asking why some spots seeing rain while others lower/closer to coast are seeing snow.  That's b/c notwithstanding trajectories, almost no CAA and so cooling all dynamic.  Dynamic cooling caused by lift / adiabatic cooling (stronger under best lift, not necessarily inland) and b/c of energy to melt snow / phase change (not limited to inland).

Because of the second term, a dynamically cooled column will often be nearly isothermal so elevation doesn't give you as much cooling as when the lapse rate is wet adiabatic, like in a typical storm.

So someone under the ****ty rates / poor lift can be rain @1000ft and 33 while someone else under high rates / good lift can be @ sea level and 32, but if you were to go 1000 ft up they'd still only be at 32.  Hence the ability to flip back and forth rain/snow quickly and patchily.

[NJwx85]

I believe the reason for the sleet is because of the close proximity of the mid-level cyclones.

You can see how the NAM had almost the whole area above freezing at 925mb at 4AM

Now look how much its cooled by 9AM

It's still going to be a problem for Long Island until mid-afternoon, that's why I don't like much snow there, but even they cool off as the storm begins to move South.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Just as a review, seeing lots of posts asking why some spots seeing rain while others lower/closer to coast are seeing snow.  That's b/c notwithstanding trajectories, almost no CAA and so cooling all dynamic.  Dynamic cooling caused by lift / adiabatic cooling (stronger under best lift, not necessarily inland) and b/c of energy to melt snow / phase change (not limited to inland).

Because of the second term, a dynamically cooled column will often be nearly isothermal so elevation doesn't give you as much cooling as when the lapse rate is wet adiabatic, like in a typical storm.

So someone under the ****ty rates / poor lift can be rain @1000ft and 33 while someone else under high rates / good lift can be @ sea level and 32, but if you were to go 1000 ft up they'd still only be at 32.  Hence the ability to flip back and forth rain/snow quickly and patchily.

True, but honestly, precip should only intensify as the CCB pivots overhead and cranks. I wouldn't expect much of a flip flop under that band.