NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z NAM is coming in really juiced up. 1-3” of rain Thursday night into Friday alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z NAM is coming in really juiced up. 1-3” of rain Thursday night into Friday alone. Its actually weaker and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM ends up further South, so we’re dry after Friday morning with the CCB well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Its actually weaker and south. Still pours Thursday night, 1-3” of rain in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 No snow for anyone in the northeast except for some in PA If only we had cold air in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still pours Thursday night, 1-3” of rain in short order. Agreed, but more of a dreary standard cold rain storm than something memorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed, but more of a dreary standard cold rain storm than something memorable I know it’s not the storm everyone is dreaming of, but odds are this isn’t gong to give us its maximum potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No snow for anyone in the northeast except for some in PA If only we had cold air in place We've never had cold air and that's why trying to reason with you is the equivlent of talking to the wall. The only hope of anyone around here seeing snow is if this bombs out close to the coast and dynamic cooling takes over. I'm not even sure Mt. Pocono sees much snow, especially if that CCB stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Gfs is rain for eveyone in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed, but more of a dreary standard cold rain storm than something memorable there is too much hype going on about this storm as of now considering guidance has reduced the impact to the area considerably - BUT still time for change 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is rain for eveyone in the northeast there is snow in parts of NY State and New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Barring a last minute surprise, I think we can say "next". Coastal flooding still needs watching, but this is rain down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Let me ask you knowledgeable people a question I see that the guidance is more South as of now but I believe "many" of this years storms have all shifted North and West especially within 24 hours ,,,,,,granted cold air not being in place is a BIG problem but is it too late to call this DOA with 48 plus hours to go ? Also " IF"this system is in and out fast say by Friday night how will that effect system #2 around Tuesday / Wednesday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 41 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Barring a last minute surprise, I think we can say "next". Coastal flooding still needs watching, but this is rain down the drain. It was never supposed to be a snowstorm. Models still show a strong coastal storm, latest Canadian has a sub 970 mb low near the BM, so that's nothing to sneeze at. Actually if the storm evolved the way the Canadian shows, the thermals would be much colder in that CCB. We'd probably see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: No snow for anyone in the northeast except for some in PA If only we had cold air in place If there's going to be heavy snow anywhere in this it'll be in New England. Their longitude helps by allowing heavy precip to make it back from the bombing low, and their latitude helps from cold air being closer by and the primary not torching that far. Down here we need much more to happen. Some of these bombing solutions have some lighter snow coming through to the coast at the end, but I doubt it accumulates much and it would be after 95% of it falls as rain. This isn't an evolution that favors our area for snow. It's more like a 4/1/97 and 12/11/92 evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 This is my thinking right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If there's going to be heavy snow anywhere in this it'll be in New England. Their longitude helps by allowing heavy precip to make it back from the bombing low, and their latitude helps from cold air being closer by and the primary not torching that far. Down here we need much more to happen. Some of these bombing solutions have some lighter snow coming through to the coast at the end, but I doubt it accumulates much and it would be after 95% of it falls as rain. This isn't an evolution that favors our area for snow. It's more like a 4/1/97 and 12/11/92 evolution. Both of those events delivered big time up here... I don't see that happening this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Both of those events delivered big time up here... I don't see that happening this time imby Yes agreed. I received about a foot from the 4/1/97 storm, I'd take that in a heartbeat from this one but I don't see that happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking right now I would take that snow area north by about 100 miles. Also any snow will be relegated to areas above 2,000’. So the hill tops of the berks and the mountains of the Catskills and southern greens. The upsloap flow will produce big time for the highest elevations. This still has major to possibly serious coastal impacts. There is a huge easterly fetch that extends well out into the Atlantic. That will act to increase tides and build huge waves that will cause beach erosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Probably a nice hit here. :] wind could be an issue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking right now how did you come up with that ? Which guidance is showing 3 - 6 in Northern NJ and 1 -3 further south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 22 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking right now Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Always expect surprises with early March storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 UKMET is much weaker and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It was never supposed to be a snowstorm. Models still show a strong coastal storm, latest Canadian has a sub 970 mb low near the BM, so that's nothing to sneeze at. Actually if the storm evolved the way the Canadian shows, the thermals would be much colder in that CCB. We'd probably see some snow. The evolution shown on the Canadian guidance is probably why the 12z RGEM is currently a major outlier (where NYC sees 2" snow and nearby suburbs see 4" or more). That solution appears to be unlikely right now. Further, the storm is outside the RGEM's skillful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The evolution shown on the Canadian guidance is probably why the 12z RGEM is currently a major outlier (where NYC sees 2" snow and nearby suburbs see 4" or more). That solution appears to be unlikely right now. Further, the storm is outside the RGEM's skillful range. Snowman should be all over that model along with WeatherFEEN to back their snowstorm forecasts Insert other media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 First Guess - Inside light blue non-accumulating snow or light accumulations, Inside dark blue, potential for accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking right now I'd move all of that north and east. Boston has a better chance at seeing 6" or more than Orange County because the dynamics may set up in time for them and cold air will be more readily available. Valley locations will also be shadowed and see a lot less because of the easterly flow which will downslope those areas. Therefore, Albany and Springfield may not see much either. The best places to be for this may be the Berkshires, Worcester area and S NH/NE MA. On the snow side of this, the conversation will be much more about New England than anyone in this subforum. And possibly I-90 well upstate from the initial primary low which totally screws us down here with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Euro went nuts of course. 8-12" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: First Guess - Inside light blue non-accumulating snow or light accumulations, Inside dark blue, potential for accumulating snows. That 32 degree line I don't agree with because northern Most Bergen County is on the warm side of it and far southern NJ is on the colder side of it plus the light blue line should be extended into interior northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, friedmators said: Euro went nuts of course. 8-12" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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