friedmators Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Assume the worst. Hope for the best. Minimizes weenie suicide watches. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Wow the HRDPS clocks Central Jersey and the Philly metro with 5-10”. Verbatim that would be Blizzard conditions during rush hour and catch a lot of people off guard. This is going to be one hell of a nowcasting event regardless of how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: If the HRRR and RAP have a reasonable handle on the soundings, the warmth at 925 mb to 950 mb will take a long time to erode despite the storm's dynamics over New York City. This is likely the case on account of New York City's being in the subsidence between two bands of heavy wet snow. As the precise placement of such bands is difficult to forecast from this far out, there remains some risk that the City could experience a bout of heavy wet snow that results in several inches of accumulation. The NAM actually cools those levels faster than those just above them. As a result, the NAM favors a heavier snow event in the City, but both the 3 km NAM and high resolution RGEM favor the City's being between the heaviest bands of snow. Taking into consideration the RAP, HRRR, and high resolution RGEM, I think a slushy inch or less will probably be reasonable in NYC itself. Immediately outside the City, 1"-3" with locally higher amounts appears to be reasonable. Of course, if the GFS is accurate, those amounts would all need to be slashed. IMO, the GFS's lower vertical resolution makes its solution less likely than the City's receiving a slushy inch or less of accumulation with 1"-3" just outside the City. I'm curious about what keeps warming the 925mb layer when all levels should be advecting cooler air in from the north, and heavy precip (granted based on banding) should be helping with dynamic cooling via melting. I see where the models are coming from, but there's no mechanism I can see that keeps that layer warm with the strong northerly flow. It's happeed to me before though, so the radar will really tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 It's snowing down to at least 1800 feet in the Catskills. Plattekill, Belleayre and Hunter Webcams all show it snowing. Not sure about the valleys yet, but radar ptypes indicate it's all snow within the blue line. 42/rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Already 0.75" at JFK. This will overproduce I think in the rain department. I'll end up wrong about the dryslotting making it up here, this should pivot into the CCB by morning and keep dumping until late afternoon/evening. Areawide 3" liquid/rain totals should happen. Luckily the big wrapping up of the low should be well east of NJ and winds will be strong northerly. If this was to wrap up near NJ like Dec 92, we'd be in for a world of hurt for coastal flooding. It won't be a picnic but could be a lot worse. We'll see tomorrow how winds mix down, but in the stronger bands should exceed 60 mph gusts. The 850mb wind products have been feisty for a while. Getting gustier outside now, moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Euro now has 3 -6 inches of snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Heading back home. From ewr in uber. hope to post photos of snow in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The euro just went ballistic for the interior. 11-14" throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Will the Nam win again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, snywx said: The euro just went ballistic for the interior. 11-14" throughout How much for mercer county NJ area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: How much for mercer county NJ area? 6" range. I wouldn't trust a snow map tho with this event. There is gonna be plenty of pleasant & unpleasant surprises tomorrow for all in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! Its good to see the Nam , HRDPS and now the Euro showing a few inches. It's going to be nasty yomorrow with damaging winds and snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! As you posted in another post I'm suspicious of that warm layer anywhere west of Nassau County because winds are basically N-NNE in that layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! 05z HRRR looks to keep the secondary tucked in under E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro now has 3 -6 inches of snow for NYC It’s axtually 6 in NYC and 8 PLus from Essex county north and west in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As you posted in another post I'm suspicious of that warm layer anywhere west of Nassau County because winds are basically N-NNE in that layer The winds are NNE in all layers 850 and below that I saw. And dynamic cooling should erode that layer unless something's reinforcing it. It comes down to banding and luck, but what's keeping that going? Yikes, I know it's snowmaps, but the new Euro has 0.6"+ liquid as snow to about the Sagtikos, little east of there. Again, must be a pesky warm layer or lack of precip keeping it from spreading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 I guarantee you guys this is a 6-12 inch snow event for nyc well except central park because they under measure but generally speaking this will be a blizzard after 12pm NYC areawide. Long island is going to change once the low starts moving south after looping towards the city. People give up too fast! This is a beautiful storm so far. And it's definitely colder than modeled. Edit: John nyc will beat boston in this setup we are in the better side of the low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 If somehow the NYC area beats Boston for snow in this one, it'll definitely be worth a laugh. I still don't think that happens, but we crossed "who knows" with this a while ago. It'll be a race between how fast the CCB can cool NYC down/banding vs how crazy Boston's firehose is and how long that lasts/how fast that can cool Boston down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 No changes at all to my previous thoughts from earlier. The Euro is a mirage, don’t fall for it. The HRRR doesn’t even change me over here. Rainstorm, had we had cold, this would have been one for the record books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The Euro is basically a rehash of 12/25/02 more or less although not that many areas saw that much snow near NYC. Because the air mass is so marginal I don't think its right but I could see 2-4 inches possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If somehow the NYC area beats Boston for snow in this one, it'll definitely be worth a laugh. I still don't think that happens, but we crossed "who knows" with this a while ago. It'll be a race between how fast the CCB can cool NYC down/banding vs how crazy Boston's firehose is and how long that lasts/how fast that can cool Boston down. It's quite possible. This reminds me of the retrogading storm of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: Didn’t you just tell us not to use the globals anymore?? You must have meant unless they show snow. This is a rainstorm, end to end, nothing has changed. It's a hi res model Be smart for a minute The Nam is leading the way here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro is basically a rehash of 12/25/02 more or less although not that many areas saw that much snow near NYC. Because the air mass is so marginal I don't think its right but I could see 2-4 inches possibly I had 5 inches in the chiristmas storm. I was supposed to get mostly rain. The heavy rain quickly turned to heavy wind driven snow and caught people offguard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I guarantee you guys this is a 6-12 inch snow event for nyc well except central park because they under measure but generally speaking this will be a blizzard after 12pm NYC areawide. Long island is going to change once the low starts moving south after looping towards the city. People give up too fast! This is a beautiful storm so far. And it's definitely colder than modeled. Edit: John nyc will beat boston in this setup we are in the better side of the low pressure That's way too high lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2” down with snow +++ I’m in southern Vermont so this is nothing like the 2010 retrograde storm. It was rain even here for most of that. This is another animal (congrats again me and animal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Seeing alot of high wind gusts and power outages being reported across portions of Maryland/Virginia in the mid-atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Mt.Holly updated my High Wind Warning which now goes in effect at 10 am until 6 am Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro is basically a rehash of 12/25/02 more or less although not that many areas saw that much snow near NYC. Because the air mass is so marginal I don't think its right but I could see 2-4 inches possibly Got 6" in the Edison area from that and most of NENJ, including just across the river from Manhattan, so I would've thought they got that much too. Good comparison, which I was thinking about also. I vividly recall that changeover on Christmas afternoon and then a wall of white. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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