-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[NycStormChaser]

Time to throw in the towel. This was never a snow event for anyone south of the Hudson Valley. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, seanick said:

Time to throw in the towel. This was never a snow event for anyone south of the Hudson Valley. 

think its too early to call this fight,,,,,,don't throw the towel in yet storm has a long way to go yet

[MJO812]

People giving up way too quickly

Nam and HRDPS show a few inches for the area . Do you really think that the models are going to be accurate with temps with the CCB rolling through ?

We will all change to snow tomorrow especially from NYC west.

Enjoy the snow and storm

[MJO812]

Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

think its too early to call this fight,,,,,,don't throw the towel in yet storm has a long way to go yet

People do this with every storm. People throw in the towel with the last storm because the models were warm. The models were wrong.

This is a complex storm

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, Snow88 said:

People giving up way too quickly

Nam and HRDPS show a few inches for the area . Do you really think that the models are going to be accurate with temps with the CCB rolling through ?

We will all change to snow tomorrow especially from NYC west.

Enjoy the snow and storm

88 exactly,,,,,,,a long way to go yet this is just starting,,,no ?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 exactly,,,,,,,a long way to go yet this is just starting,,,no ?

This storm did just start.

Globals are warm but they shouldn't be used in these setups.

[Rjay]

I'm not sold in either direction but I'm leaning towards someone near the coast getting into a good band that drops a few inches but not much on either side (likely rain) and then same story with a band over cnj.  Really a crapshoot. NWNJ and the HV are a different story.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Rjay what do you think North of 287 is looking at or no way to tell ? I saw that someone in the UPSTATE thread said temp went from 41 to 32 in 90 minutes,,,,that what we should expect ,large temp drop in short period ?

 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm not sold in either direction but I'm leaning towards someone near the coast getting into a good band that drops a few inches but not much on either side (likely rain) and then same story with a band over cnj.  Really a crapshoot. NWNJ and the HV are a different story.

Agreed. Where we are is essentially a dartboard. It’ll be about where banding can setup and the column can cool. Amazing it can’t be more widespread on 40 mph north winds. I remember Xmas 2002 predictions being pretty much what they are now, so who knows. 

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Agreed. Where we are is essentially a dartboard. It’ll be about where banding can setup and the column can cool. Amazing it can’t be more widespread on 40 mph north winds. I remember Xmas 2002 predictions being pretty much what they are now, so who knows. 

Didn't most areas wind up with 7-14 on the island from that event?

[donsutherland1]

If the HRRR and RAP have a reasonable handle on the soundings, the warmth at 925 mb to 950 mb will take a long time to erode despite the storm's dynamics over New York City. This is likely the case on account of New York City's being in the subsidence between two bands of heavy wet snow. As the precise placement of such bands is difficult to forecast from this far out, there remains some risk that the City could experience a bout of heavy wet snow that results in several inches of accumulation. The NAM actually cools those levels faster than those just above them. As a result, the NAM favors a heavier snow event in the City, but both the 3 km NAM and high resolution RGEM favor the City's being between the heaviest bands of snow. 

Taking into consideration the RAP, HRRR, and high resolution RGEM, I think a slushy inch or less will probably be reasonable in NYC itself. Immediately outside the City, 1"-3" with locally higher amounts appears to be reasonable.

Of course, if the GFS is accurate, those amounts would all need to be slashed. IMO, the GFS's lower vertical resolution makes its solution less likely than the City's receiving a slushy inch or less of accumulation with 1"-3" just outside the City.  

[donsutherland1]

BGM has gone over to snow earlier than had been modeled.

[friedmators]

Assume the worst. Hope for the best. Minimizes weenie suicide watches.


.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Wow the HRDPS clocks Central Jersey and the Philly metro with 5-10”.  Verbatim that would be Blizzard conditions during rush hour and catch a lot of people off guard. This is going to be one hell of a nowcasting event regardless of how it pans out. 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the HRRR and RAP have a reasonable handle on the soundings, the warmth at 925 mb to 950 mb will take a long time to erode despite the storm's dynamics over New York City. This is likely the case on account of New York City's being in the subsidence between two bands of heavy wet snow. As the precise placement of such bands is difficult to forecast from this far out, there remains some risk that the City could experience a bout of heavy wet snow that results in several inches of accumulation. The NAM actually cools those levels faster than those just above them. As a result, the NAM favors a heavier snow event in the City, but both the 3 km NAM and high resolution RGEM favor the City's being between the heaviest bands of snow. 

Taking into consideration the RAP, HRRR, and high resolution RGEM, I think a slushy inch or less will probably be reasonable in NYC itself. Immediately outside the City, 1"-3" with locally higher amounts appears to be reasonable.

Of course, if the GFS is accurate, those amounts would all need to be slashed. IMO, the GFS's lower vertical resolution makes its solution less likely than the City's receiving a slushy inch or less of accumulation with 1"-3" just outside the City.  

I'm curious about what keeps warming the 925mb layer when all levels should be advecting cooler air in from the north, and heavy precip (granted based on banding) should be helping with dynamic cooling via melting. I see where the models are coming from, but there's no mechanism I can see that keeps that layer warm with the strong northerly flow. It's happeed to me before though, so the radar will really tell the tale. 

[NorthShoreWx]

It's snowing down to at least 1800 feet in the Catskills.  Plattekill, Belleayre and Hunter Webcams all show it snowing.  Not sure about the valleys yet, but radar ptypes indicate it's all snow within the blue line.

 

42/rain here

 

[jm1220]

Already 0.75" at JFK. This will overproduce I think in the rain department. I'll end up wrong about the dryslotting making it up here, this should pivot into the CCB by morning and keep dumping until late afternoon/evening. Areawide 3" liquid/rain totals should happen. Luckily the big wrapping up of the low should be well east of NJ and winds will be strong northerly. If this was to wrap up near NJ like Dec 92, we'd be in for a world of hurt for coastal flooding. It won't be a picnic but could be a lot worse. We'll see tomorrow how winds mix down, but in the stronger bands should exceed 60 mph gusts. The 850mb wind products have been feisty for a while. 

Getting gustier outside now, moderate rain. 

[MJO812]

Euro now has 3 -6 inches of snow for NYC

[Animal]

Heading back home. From ewr in uber.

hope to post photos of snow in 3 hours.

[snywx]

The euro just went ballistic for the interior. 11-14" throughout 

[MJO812]

Will the Nam win again ?

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

The euro just went ballistic for the interior. 11-14" throughout 

How much for mercer county NJ area?

[snywx]

1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

How much for mercer county NJ area?

6" range. I wouldn't trust a snow map tho with this event. There is gonna be plenty of pleasant & unpleasant surprises tomorrow for all in the Northeast. 

[husky0101]

[jm1220]

Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. 

May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. 

May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! 

Its good to see the Nam , HRDPS and now the Euro showing a few inches. It's going to be nasty yomorrow with damaging winds and snow falling.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. 

May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! 

 

As you posted in another post I'm suspicious of that warm layer anywhere west of Nassau County because winds are basically N-NNE in that layer

[snywx]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the Euro if snowy now is right. The HRRR remains really crappy last run I saw. It seems like it's coming down to a lousy 925-950mb layer a half degree or so over what's needed to pound snow to the surface. That can really mess it up if the warm layer is accurate, but maybe the Euro is eroding it enough and there's plenty falling to overcome it. 

May the odds be ever in our favor. Unless you live 1000' or higher, in which case cheers to you!! 

05z HRRR looks to keep the secondary tucked in under E LI. 

[weatherfreeeeak]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro now has 3 -6 inches of snow for NYC

It’s axtually 6 in NYC and 8 PLus from Essex county north and west in NJ

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

As you posted in another post I'm suspicious of that warm layer anywhere west of Nassau County because winds are basically N-NNE in that layer

The winds are NNE in all layers 850 and below that I saw. And dynamic cooling should erode that layer unless something's reinforcing it. It comes down to banding and luck, but what's keeping that going?

Yikes, I know it's snowmaps, but the new Euro has 0.6"+ liquid as snow to about the Sagtikos, little east of there. Again, must be a pesky warm layer or lack of precip keeping it from spreading east.