Dan76 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathermedic said: That discussion was out at 7:03pm. The warnings came out at 8:48pm. They will probably update their discussion before midnight. Changed more fun The probability of major coastal flooding for the south shore bays on Saturday has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Camera now http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 There is a better chance of significant snows in NYC now than most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Is the OZ Nam better than the 18Z so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is a better chance of significant snows in NYC now than most of SNE Nam shows them all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Idk I can’t imagine the rap or hrrr are that wrong this close. 80 and north special . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: Idk I can’t imagine the rap or hrrr are that wrong this close. 80 and north special . They were brutal at this range in the March event last year. Its generally only reliable 4-6 hours out in highly marginal cases like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Might be a sneaky 925mb warm layer that takes forever to mix out. That could be something to watch tomorrow. It’s been the bane of several a potential snowstorm for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 From Mid Atl 60k w/o power in Cleveland Metro already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Could see a lot of power outages if those 60mph+ gusts verify. Wet February plus another 1"+ of rain tonight will make it easier to take some trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, friedmators said: Idk I can’t imagine the rap or hrrr are that wrong this close. 80 and north special . We have seen the models wrong this close to an event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Isotherm thinks 2-4 for NYC with the potential for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Isotherm thinks 2-4 for NYC with the potential for more I'm going with Upton at less than one inch for NYC on the grass at the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 My final call: We’ll see what happens south and east of 287. I’ll be happy if I end up with over an inch. I can see how it happens but I’m pessimistic. Seems like these sneaky warm layers below 850 show up on the modeling and keep it rain or slop. Plus a lot of the heavy stuff in the CCB will be in the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 My thoughts: plenty of surprises with this storm most likely. There is no real handle on this and it will make up its own rules as it progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 My opinion. No one south of 80 gets anything to accumulate. We might snow for a few hours with white rain but at the end of the day nothing sticks anywhere. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Seems like the NAM is caving in to the warmer models too. Never a good sign for a colder outcome. Something always messing it up. Again, CCBs are always very fickle. It’ll be weird seeing heavy rain from a developed CCB on March 2nd but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Time to throw in the towel. This was never a snow event for anyone south of the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, seanick said: Time to throw in the towel. This was never a snow event for anyone south of the Hudson Valley. think its too early to call this fight,,,,,,don't throw the towel in yet storm has a long way to go yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 People giving up way too quickly Nam and HRDPS show a few inches for the area . Do you really think that the models are going to be accurate with temps with the CCB rolling through ? We will all change to snow tomorrow especially from NYC west. Enjoy the snow and storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: think its too early to call this fight,,,,,,don't throw the towel in yet storm has a long way to go yet People do this with every storm. People throw in the towel with the last storm because the models were warm. The models were wrong. This is a complex storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: People giving up way too quickly Nam and HRDPS show a few inches for the area . Do you really think that the models are going to be accurate with temps with the CCB rolling through ? We will all change to snow tomorrow especially from NYC west. Enjoy the snow and storm 88 exactly,,,,,,,a long way to go yet this is just starting,,,no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 exactly,,,,,,,a long way to go yet this is just starting,,,no ? This storm did just start. Globals are warm but they shouldn't be used in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I'm not sold in either direction but I'm leaning towards someone near the coast getting into a good band that drops a few inches but not much on either side (likely rain) and then same story with a band over cnj. Really a crapshoot. NWNJ and the HV are a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Rjay what do you think North of 287 is looking at or no way to tell ? I saw that someone in the UPSTATE thread said temp went from 41 to 32 in 90 minutes,,,,that what we should expect ,large temp drop in short period ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm not sold in either direction but I'm leaning towards someone near the coast getting into a good band that drops a few inches but not much on either side (likely rain) and then same story with a band over cnj. Really a crapshoot. NWNJ and the HV are a different story. Agreed. Where we are is essentially a dartboard. It’ll be about where banding can setup and the column can cool. Amazing it can’t be more widespread on 40 mph north winds. I remember Xmas 2002 predictions being pretty much what they are now, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Agreed. Where we are is essentially a dartboard. It’ll be about where banding can setup and the column can cool. Amazing it can’t be more widespread on 40 mph north winds. I remember Xmas 2002 predictions being pretty much what they are now, so who knows. Didn't most areas wind up with 7-14 on the island from that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 If the HRRR and RAP have a reasonable handle on the soundings, the warmth at 925 mb to 950 mb will take a long time to erode despite the storm's dynamics over New York City. This is likely the case on account of New York City's being in the subsidence between two bands of heavy wet snow. As the precise placement of such bands is difficult to forecast from this far out, there remains some risk that the City could experience a bout of heavy wet snow that results in several inches of accumulation. The NAM actually cools those levels faster than those just above them. As a result, the NAM favors a heavier snow event in the City, but both the 3 km NAM and high resolution RGEM favor the City's being between the heaviest bands of snow. Taking into consideration the RAP, HRRR, and high resolution RGEM, I think a slushy inch or less will probably be reasonable in NYC itself. Immediately outside the City, 1"-3" with locally higher amounts appears to be reasonable. Of course, if the GFS is accurate, those amounts would all need to be slashed. IMO, the GFS's lower vertical resolution makes its solution less likely than the City's receiving a slushy inch or less of accumulation with 1"-3" just outside the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 BGM has gone over to snow earlier than had been modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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