-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[friedmators]

If we want good snow at the coast what is one of the first things we want to see on tonight's 0z nam?

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The surface low not where the rap/hrrr has it


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[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map

3k Nam

The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC

Very weird

With the occluding low, there are going to be "bubbles" of air wrapping around so that 850s could be all over the place with little regard to north- south.  The 3k is trying to depict this and you can see the result on the 850charts and in some of the NAM p-type charts (blob of snow over the ocean south of LI while LI and NYC rain, etc ), but queue the butterfly effect.  It may be correct in a general sense, but if it pins the details down, it's a heckofa model.

 

 

[friedmators]

The great thing about DirecTV,  even if it goes out, you have the App... if connected to WiFi in your house, you have almost every channel on the App anyway even IF (mine rarely ever goes out) the satellite is out!

Lost mine two Saturday’s ago with that heavy burst we got. Snow actually piled up on it and killed the signal.


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[Rjay]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

December 2002 was the last inch of rain in NYC followed by 5" of snow.

Thanks!

[jm1220]

At least in Long Beach, Snowicane 2010 was over 1" of rain followed by 10-11" of snow. It was a quick flash over, then a brief dry period and then heavy snow.

[Brasiluvsnow]

6 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Lost mine two Saturday’s ago with that heavy burst we got. Snow actually piled up on it and killed the signal.


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same here that was the first time that ever happened to me-----now back to THIS storm !!!!!!!

[ILoveWinter]

This is a great storm to track as the upside is big compared to what’s expected snow wise (in the city). Will be interesting to see where the CCB sets up and whether the wonders of evap cooling will sneak in some some surprises for the immediate metro. If not then it will just be as expected - it’s essentially a tie-win scenario.

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least in Long Beach, Snowicane 2010 was over 1" of rain followed by 10-11" of snow. It was a quick flash over, then a brief dry period and then heavy snow.

It was in nyc as well. There may have been a break after the changeover before the heavy snow though.

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least in Long Beach, Snowicane 2010 was over 1" of rain followed by 10-11" of snow. It was a quick flash over, then a brief dry period and then heavy snow.

I thought we had over 2" of rain before the changeover.  Not positive.  Wish that Wantagh mesonet was around back then.  

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was in nyc as well. There may have been a break after the changeover before the heavy snow though.

I remember a break here for several hours. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I thought we had over 2" of rain before the changeover.  Not positive.  Wish that Wantagh mesonet was around back then.  

May have been 2" of rain. I just remember commuting west on the LIRR and it suddenly flipping to snow around Jamaica and being a blizzard by Woodside. On the way back, the R/S line essentially followed me, and it crashed to snow in Long Beach. After maybe an inch it stopped, then soon after and especially that night there was +SN in the CCB. Just after dawn, the accumulating snow shut off. 

[sferic]

In an hour when the 0Z suite begins with the NAM this should be fun especially if there are positive trends for snow on the coast.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, sferic said:

In an hour when the 0Z suite begins with the NAM this should be fun especially if there are positive trends for snow on the coast.

Actually we need positive trends from the other models

[sferic]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Actually we need positive trends from the other models

True, but I would think we'd want the suite to start off positively with the NAM then the GFS then the rest.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

True, but I would think we'd want the suite to start off positively with the NAM then the GFS then the rest.

Globals are useless this close

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

can we talk about past storms in the banter thread?

Yeah that stuff is history keep it in banter

[Brasiluvsnow]

I watched Bernies latest video,,,,he showed how hard it was snowing in Detroit today --said it was 34 or 36 degrees at the time of video and started snowing at noon and around 5 pm they had 5  inches and the totals had not been updated---thats headed this way. Does anyone know if the moisture is still over performing in areas that the models had predicted at this time frame ?

[weathermedic]

Coastal flood warnings hoisted for the Fri overnight into Sat AM high tide cycles for the area. A few locations forecast to reach major flooding levels (Freeport, Pt. Lookout, East Rockaway Inlet, Lindenhurst) during the Sat morning cycle.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

30 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I watched Bernies latest video,,,,he showed how hard it was snowing in Detroit today --said it was 34 or 36 degrees at the time of video and started snowing at noon and around 5 pm they had 5  inches and the totals had not been updated---thats headed this way. Does anyone know if the moisture is still over performing in areas that the models had predicted at this time frame ?

 

NAM has a pretty good handle so far.  It’s 18z forecast for 9 hours is pretty much on the button at the moment, but precip is overperforming in certain parts like over here....eastern PA.  

Im post limited, so saving my next post for when the changeover occurs here...I’m thinking by midnight.

many areas in northern PA have already switched over to snow...even though 850 0 line is suppose to still b back in Ohio. Bgm is very close to snow or may already be.  Also unexpected.

[Dan76]

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Coastal flood warnings hoisted for the Fri overnight into Sat AM high tide cycles for the area. A few locations forecast to reach major flooding levels (Freeport, Pt. Lookout, East Rockaway Inlet, Lindenhurst) during the Sat morning cycle.

I don't know about major, moderate yes tide was not in the streets in freeport today and the winds are supposed to be NW tomorrow evening.

 

Fri

N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming NW 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm in the afternoon.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

I don't know about major, moderate yes tide was not in the streets in freeport today and the winds are supposed to be NW tomorrow evening.

 

Fri

N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming NW 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm in the afternoon.

I don’t think your getting the whole picture. The giant circulation of the storm has an enernous area of easterly fetch. This will build a fully developed sea state with waves 50’+ offshore. These waves will become a long period swell. Swells with a period over 15 seconds have tremendous energy. They in turn will add to the water run up by blocking water from existing from the inlets. We saw this with major beach wash over and flooding during jose this past September 

 

[friedmators]

The NAM still wants to flip us by 10 am. But loses dynamics faster and only 6”. CNJ area. Inch or two of slop sounds about right.


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[Dan76]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t think your getting the whole picture. The giant circulation of the storm had an enernous area of easterly fetch. This will build a fully developed sea state with waves 50’+ offshore. These waves will become a long period swell. Swells with a period over 15 seconds have tremendous energy. They in turn will add to the water run up by blocking water from existing from the inlets. We saw this with major beach wash over and flooding during jose this past September 

 

Could be wrong but NWS has moderate in their discussion with low probability of major we will see

 

Surge guidance has come into better agreement with moderate
coastal flood thresholds being reached along the southern bays
of Nassau County and Jamaica Bay for Friday morning high tides.
Elsewhere generally minor coastal impacts expected.

There is quite a bit of model spread for the Friday Night high
tidal cycle, with competing factors of increasing energetic
easterly swells and ekman pumping versus strong offshore winds.
At this point a middle of the road approach has been continued,
with potential for moderate coastal flooding for the southern
bays of LI and Queens and twin forks of LI and even for locally
moderate impacts along the north shore of LI due to to 3 to 5
ft wave action. Elsewhere generally minor impacts are expected.

With only around 1 to 1 1/2 ft surge needed for minor flooding
and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flooding during the high tide
cycles Saturday into Saturday Night, the potential for several
tidal cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding continues.
Ekman pumping and energetic easterly swell energy along with
weakening offshore flow should help water levels continue to
build along the coast. It is not out of the question that this
threat continues into Sunday. At this time there is only a low
probability of isolated major coastal flooding during Saturday
high tides for the south shore bays

[weathermedic]

Just now, Dan76 said:

Could be wrong but NWS has moderate in their discussion with low probability of major we will see

 

Surge guidance has come into better agreement with moderate
coastal flood thresholds being reached along the southern bays
of Nassau County and Jamaica Bay for Friday morning high tides.
Elsewhere generally minor coastal impacts expected.

There is quite a bit of model spread for the Friday Night high
tidal cycle, with competing factors of increasing energetic
easterly swells and ekman pumping versus strong offshore winds.
At this point a middle of the road approach has been continued,
with potential for moderate coastal flooding for the southern
bays of LI and Queens and twin forks of LI and even for locally
moderate impacts along the north shore of LI due to to 3 to 5
ft wave action. Elsewhere generally minor impacts are expected.

With only around 1 to 1 1/2 ft surge needed for minor flooding
and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flooding during the high tide
cycles Saturday into Saturday Night, the potential for several
tidal cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding continues.
Ekman pumping and energetic easterly swell energy along with
weakening offshore flow should help water levels continue to
build along the coast. It is not out of the question that this
threat continues into Sunday. At this time there is only a low
probability of isolated major coastal flooding during Saturday
high tides for the south shore bays

That discussion was out at 7:03pm. The warnings came out at 8:48pm. They will probably update their discussion before midnight.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

NAM finally caved. This is a sloppy 1-3” on the backend, nothing more. Winds should be impressive though.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, friedmators said:

The NAM still wants to flip us by 10 am. But loses dynamics faster and only 6”. CNJ area. Inch or two of slop sounds about right.


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Nam shows several inches for the area

[MJO812]

Nam shows 6 + for central Jersey lol

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Nam shows 6 + for central Jersey lol

Only for a small area by the coast. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Only for a small area by the coast. 

Central Jersey

[MJO812]

3k Nam shows 3-5 for NYC area and 6+ for the same area in central NJ