NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I'm going to be very interested to see what the 00z models show as these will have the hurricane hunter date ingested in.... where exactly are they going to fly into the storm - where will it be located ? what time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 What a monster system on the Nam, I think a lot of people will be caught off guard. I think it's going to trend even more powerful tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Animal said: I like 10 to max 20 at my house if I get into the ccb and it dumps etc. Agree. Only calling for max 10" here, but you now how that goes up the mountain. 15" wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm about to throw the towel in for sea level areas. This looks to be elevation driven. I think the I-95 through much of NJ will see white rain when rates increase and regular rain otherwise. Once up into Morris County, I could see lights accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I don’t think the RAP understands evaporating cooling either. Below 0 925 and up with ridiculously heavy precip and it still shows rain. Latest run seemed much improved. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, snywx said: Upton went with a warning for Orange.. 4-7" w/ 10"+ above 800' Your location should benefit you for this one. I think it'll be iffy here. Powerful storm nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: I don’t think the RAP understands evaporating cooling either. Below 0 925 and up with ridiculously heavy precip and it still shows rain. Latest run seemed much improved. Evaporative cooling doesn't guaruntee that your wetbulb temperature is below freezing. If there's a huge dewpoint depression after hours of heavy precip, then yeah, it starts to get suspect, but I was never a fan of those rules of thumb along the lines of "if it's below freezing at 925/850 and raining heavily, you'll flip to snow". There are real-world BL processes that can keep you warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 If the 0Z suite doesn't at least give hope to Long Island for a few inches then it's off to House # 2 in Liberty NY. Will have the entire upstate event time lapsed so that should prove fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Enigma said: I'm about to throw the towel in for sea level areas. This looks to be elevation driven. I think the I-95 through much of NJ will see white rain when rates increase and regular rain otherwise. Once up into Morris County, I could see lights accumulations. Will be a nasty day for a lot of us, and a forgettable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: If the 0Z suite doesn't at least give hope to Long Island for a few inches then it's off to House # 2 in Liberty NY. Will have the entire upstate event time lapsed so that should prove fun. Leave tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Evaporative cooling doesn't guaruntee that your wetbulb temperature is below freezing. If there's a huge dewpoint depression after hours of heavy precip, then yeah, it starts to get suspect, but I was never a fan of those rules of thumb along the lines of "if it's below freezing at 925/850 and raining heavily, you'll flip to snow". There are real-world BL processes that can keep you warm.I buy that. I’m assuming a fetch off the ocean at the surface would do that. I see NE winds though. I guess I’m grasping at straws. Edit maybe nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Home elevation in Chester is 800'...could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's very rare along the coast to get more than a slushy C-2 on the colder surfaces following an extended interval of heavy rain. That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago. What storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Status Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago. He said rare, not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's very rare along the coast to get more than a slushy C-2 on the colder surfaces following an extended interval of heavy rain. It can happen though. I still think the city gets a few inches especially on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: where exactly are they going to fly into the storm - where will it be located ? what time ? Tonight’s 0z runs will have all the new hurricane hunter data ingested into them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: A slushy coating to an inch or two on the colder surfaces is usually the max. We haven't had a heavy rain to heavy snow warning level event here since Christmas 2002. didn't long island get 2 feet after an inch of rain in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: A slushy coating to an inch or two on the colder surfaces is usually the max. We haven't had a heavy rain to heavy snow warning level event here since Christmas 2002. Technically 2/8/13 was heavy rain to snow as was 2/25/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Albany just hoisted a pretty aggressive suite of winter statements. I'm under a warning now for 4-10", locally 12", with 40-50 mph gusts; advisories for 3-8" with 10" at 1k+ along the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshorekid Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: didn't long island get 2 feet after an inch of rain in 2013 Absolutely. Craziest storm I have ever been in the middle of. Hundreds of cars stranded on major roads through the area. Where I live in Medford, NY (Northwest Suffolk), we recorded 33 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 38 minutes ago, Animal said: Leave tonight. Exactly. That’s what I’m doing for Vermont. Expecting 20” at the peak of Stratton at 3850’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The sudden drop off in interest here lets me know all I need to know about this system. Good luck in the mountains. Down the shore, batten the hatches. Most of us will be able to go about our business tomorrow. A little worried about trees and power outages, but mainly I expect to lose Direct TV, which doesn't work for me in heavy rain. Not that there is anything worth watching on it anyway. I still expect lots of accidents, people don't respect rainy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 31 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago. That was on Christmas Day which by it’s bery nature had more access to cold drain. Had the polar vortex split sent some cold air to this hemisphere we would be talking feet of snow for the whole metro. It pretty rare to have a storm evaluation like we have with screaming north winds and mainly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That was on Christmas Day which by it’s bery nature had more access to cold drain. Had the polar vortex split sent some cold air to this hemisphere we would be talking feet of snow for the whole metro. It pretty rare to have a storm evaluation like we have with screaming north winds and mainly rain. No it was another storm and I'm telling you tomorrow this forum will have a different attitude cause there will be a lot of good surprises. I think NYC gets at least 6 inches Time and time again people scream victory before the storm even hits and when it overperform they go into hiding. I'm gonna go look for the date of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, Northshorekid said: Absolutely. Craziest storm I have ever been in the middle of. Hundreds of cars stranded on major roads through the area. Where I live in Medford, NY (Northwest Suffolk), we recorded 33 inches. I remember that storm. Attempting to marshal EMS resources while feeling that Middle Country Rd (next Middle Island Walmart) looked like a scene out of the "Day After Tomorrow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: No it was another storm and I'm telling you tomorrow this forum will have a different attitude cause there will be a lot of good surprises. I think NYC gets at least 6 inches Time and time again people scream victory before the storm even hits and when it overpercormer they go into hiding. I'm gonna go look for the date of that storm We are going to hold you to that prediction - please back up your prediction with some scientific evidence...……... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshorekid Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I remember that storm. Attempting to marshal EMS resources while feeling that Middle Country Rd (next Middle Island Walmart) looked like a scene out of the "Day After Tomorrow." My wife and I left work in Melville that day, as I told her that we were leaving ASAP. It was a rain/snow mix until we got to right around Ronkonkoma. Once we got to Medford, to this day, the snow coming out of the sky were like snowballs, I have never seen it snow like that. By the time we got to North Ocean Ave, we barely got off that road before hundred or so cars got stranded until the next day. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The sudden drop off in interest here lets me know all I need to know about this system. Good luck in the mountains. Down the shore, batten the hatches. Most of us will be able to go about our business tomorrow. A little worried about trees and power outages, but mainly I expect to lose Direct TV, which doesn't work for me in heavy rain. Not that there is anything worth watching on it anyway. I still expect lots of accidents, people don't respect rainy conditions. I've noticed DirecTV usualy only goes out in EXTREMELY heavy rain. Usually it has to be the tropical type downpours that you get in summer t-storms. It almost never goes out in heavy rain during the winter because heavy rain in winter is lower end heavy rain. I doubt the DirecTV will go out during this storm but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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