-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[ForestHillWx]

Home elevation in Chester is 800'...could be interesting.

[WeatherFeen2000]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's very rare along the coast to get more than a slushy C-2 on the colder surfaces following an extended interval of heavy rain.  

That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago.

What storm ?

[A_Status]

6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago.

He said rare, not impossible. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's very rare along the coast to get more than a slushy C-2 on the colder surfaces following an extended interval of heavy rain.  

It can happen though.

I still think the city gets a few inches especially on colder surfaces.

[Rtd208]

 

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

where exactly are they going to fly into the storm - where will it be located ? what time ?

Tonight’s 0z runs will have all the new hurricane hunter data ingested into them

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A slushy coating to an inch or two on the colder surfaces is usually the max. We haven't had a heavy rain to heavy snow warning level event here since Christmas 2002. 

didn't long island get 2 feet after an inch of rain in 2013

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A slushy coating to an inch or two on the colder surfaces is usually the max. We haven't had a heavy rain to heavy snow warning level event here since Christmas 2002. 

Technically 2/8/13 was heavy rain to snow as was 2/25/10

[Juliancolton]

Albany just hoisted a pretty aggressive suite of winter statements. I'm under a warning now for 4-10", locally 12", with 40-50 mph gusts; advisories for 3-8" with 10" at 1k+ along the Hudson.

[Northshorekid]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

didn't long island get 2 feet after an inch of rain in 2013

Absolutely. Craziest storm I have ever been in the middle of. Hundreds of cars stranded on major roads through the area. Where I live in Medford, NY (Northwest Suffolk), we recorded 33 inches.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, Animal said:

Leave tonight. 

Exactly. That’s what I’m doing for Vermont. Expecting 20” at the peak of Stratton at 3850’

[weatherpruf]

The sudden drop off in interest here lets me know all I need to know about this system. Good luck in the mountains. Down the shore, batten the hatches. Most of us will be able to go about our business tomorrow. A little worried about trees and power outages, but mainly I expect to lose Direct TV, which doesn't work for me in heavy rain. Not that there is anything worth watching on it anyway. I still expect lots of accidents, people don't respect rainy conditions.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

31 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That' wrong we had 16 inches of snow following a rainstorm that changed to heavy wet snow about a decade ago.

That was on Christmas Day which by it’s bery nature had more access to cold drain. Had the polar vortex split sent some cold air to this hemisphere we would be talking feet of snow for the whole metro. It pretty rare to have a storm evaluation like we have with screaming north winds and mainly rain.

[WeatherFeen2000]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That was on Christmas Day which by it’s bery nature had more access to cold drain. Had the polar vortex split sent some cold air to this hemisphere we would be talking feet of snow for the whole metro. It pretty rare to have a storm evaluation like we have with screaming north winds and mainly rain.

No it was another storm and I'm telling you tomorrow this forum will have a different attitude cause there will be a lot of good surprises. I think NYC gets at least 6 inches

Time and time again people scream victory before the storm even hits and when it overperform they go into hiding. I'm gonna go look for the date of that storm

[USCG RS]

18 minutes ago, Northshorekid said:

Absolutely. Craziest storm I have ever been in the middle of. Hundreds of cars stranded on major roads through the area. Where I live in Medford, NY (Northwest Suffolk), we recorded 33 inches.

I remember that storm. Attempting to marshal EMS resources while feeling that Middle Country Rd (next Middle Island Walmart) looked like a scene out of the "Day After Tomorrow."

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

No it was another storm and I'm telling you tomorrow this forum will have a different attitude cause there will be a lot of good surprises. I think NYC gets at least 6 inches

Time and time again people scream victory before the storm even hits and when it overpercormer they go into hiding. I'm gonna go look for the date of that storm

We are going to hold you to that prediction - please back up your prediction with some scientific evidence...……...

[Northshorekid]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I remember that storm. Attempting to marshal EMS resources while feeling that Middle Country Rd (next Middle Island Walmart) looked like a scene out of the "Day After Tomorrow."

My wife and I left work in Melville that day, as I told her that we were leaving ASAP. It was a rain/snow mix until we got to right around Ronkonkoma. Once we got to Medford, to this day, the snow coming out of the sky were like snowballs, I have never seen it snow like that. By the time we got to North Ocean Ave, we barely got off that road before hundred or so cars got stranded until the next day. Insane.

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The sudden drop off in interest here lets me know all I need to know about this system. Good luck in the mountains. Down the shore, batten the hatches. Most of us will be able to go about our business tomorrow. A little worried about trees and power outages, but mainly I expect to lose Direct TV, which doesn't work for me in heavy rain. Not that there is anything worth watching on it anyway. I still expect lots of accidents, people don't respect rainy conditions.

I've noticed DirecTV usualy only goes out in EXTREMELY heavy rain. Usually it has to be the tropical type downpours that you get in summer t-storms. It almost never goes out in heavy rain during the winter because heavy rain in winter is lower end heavy rain. I doubt the DirecTV will go out during this storm but we'll see.

[friedmators]

So it seems like we need the transfer to complete before using these meso models so they have something solid to initialize off of. I can buy that.


.

[EasternLI]

2013 was 1"+ rain to about a foot of snow over here. Pretty much the same as my boxing day experience actually.

[Rtd208]

Started an Obs thread.

 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

where exactly are they going to fly into the storm - where will it be located ? what time ?

Sorry, just saw this.

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281702
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST WED 28 FEBRUARY 2018
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z MARCH 2018
         WSPOD NUMBER.....17-090

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. A61/ DROP 8 (39.1N 72.1W)/ 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK61
       C. 01/1745Z
       D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 02/0200Z

 

There will be ten drops with this mission. It will conclude at 0200z, so it may not have all the data at 00z. Furthermore, the control point is 39.1N 72.1W, which is the point where the mission will roughly center around. 

[Snowlover11]

can we talk about past storms in the banter thread?

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Generally when we beat snowfall guidance, it's when the storm starts out as snow. Very rare to get a surprise warning level event at the coast when it begins as 1-2 inches of rain first. 

12/25/02 is actually the only storm on record where NYC saw at least 1 inch of rain and 5 or more inches of snow.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

12/25/02 is actually the only storm on record where NYC saw at least 1 inch of rain and 5 or more inches of snow.

Snowicane? March 1888?

[WeatherFeen2000]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It's very rare along the coast to get more than a slushy C-2 on the colder surfaces following an extended interval of heavy rain.  

These are all storms that rained a good amount and snowed and the least snow was 5 inches which happened the record El Nino year March 22nd 1998

Also the other dates had much bigger snowfalls after a bunch of rain

 

February 3rd 2013
February 26-26 2010
March 5th 2015

April 7 2003
November 7th 2012
March 22nd 1998

 

I'm sure there's more before I moved to America from Luxemburg. I moved to New York back in the summer of 1995 But that doesn't seem that rare especially in the 2000's

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Snowicane? March 1888?

I honestly don't remember.  

[sferic]

If we want good snow at the coast what is one of the first things we want to see on tonight's 0z nam?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Ja643y]

30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I've noticed DirecTV usualy only goes out in EXTREMELY heavy rain. Usually it has to be the tropical type downpours that you get in summer t-storms. It almost never goes out in heavy rain during the winter because heavy rain in winter is lower end heavy rain. I doubt the DirecTV will go out during this storm but we'll see.

The great thing about DirecTV,  even if it goes out, you have the App... if connected to WiFi in your house, you have almost every channel on the App anyway even IF (mine rarely ever goes out) the satellite is out!