Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LI and NJ will get more than NYC Bank on it Seems difficult to judge where intense banding will set up until we're closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: WHo gets the most will depend on where banding sets up and can cool most efficiently. I’d rather it mostly fall at night and the ground be colder, but heavy enough rates can overcome that. Exactly. Everyone at school asks me what is going on with this storm. All they care about is temperature. So they say if it's over 32, it won't snow. But, a few weeks ago, it was about 38 where I was, and It snowed so hard the roads were covered in about 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Seems difficult to judge where intense banding will set up until we're closer to the event. Not the Bronx it usually is higher than all boroughs. Especially Riverdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Still has that mega-swath in the LHV and Northern NJ. Fresh from Mount Holly. They are going with 800ft.+ for the higher accumulations, at least in my area. Upton went with a warning for Orange.. 4-7" w/ 10"+ above 800' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Taylor Warwick said: Exactly. Everyone at school asks me what is going on with this storm. All they care about is temperature. So they say if it's over 32, it won't snow. But, a few weeks ago, it was about 38 where I was, and It snowed so hard the roads were covered in about 15 minutes. You want to look at H85 (850mb) temps. A general rule of thumb is that when h85 is below freezing and surface temps are close to freezing, this will allow for the column to cool. What is happening is that the frozen precip is falling into the warmer temperatures and melting. As this happens, it will cool the atmosphere because the melting of the precip requires energy and this energy is pulled from the atmosphere. As this energy is pulled, the air around it subsequently cools. As long as the dew point and surface temperatures are apart (in other words, the column is not fully saturated), then the column can continue to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 42 minutes ago, Rjay said: That too I'm working...stealth mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like the 18z RGEM is coming in colder for the NW burbs. I believe that's heavy snow in Northern NJ and points North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Current radar trends line up better with the NAM, and still underdone. Yes , current radar is already showing more precip than both NAM and GFS are projecting. Expect an even stronger solution at 0z once hurricane hunter data is inputted. Their both being silly for not including a larger area with WWA and WSW’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The RAP and NAM are worlds apart tomorrow early afternoon @ 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 People are still chasing mirages. Nothing has changed with this storm. A rain event with a minor swipe of wet snow at the end. My forecast hasn’t changed in days, Trace to 1 inch up by me, nothing for the city. The models are getting warmer, less snow. The NAM is overdone nonsense as usual and it’s coming back to reality now, at 18z, way less impressive for snow and that will continue with the subsequent runs, the new 18z RGEM is mostly all rain, very little snow even for Orange County. Upton just realeased their update, all rain for the city, 1-2 inches up by me (Rockland), more for elevated areas of Orange County on north. No winter advisories, warnings, watches or statements for anyone in Upton’s area except Orange and Putnam and rightfully so. This has always been a dynamically cooled, elevated driven event, exclusively for upstate/north. No cold anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like it goes vertical before we have a chance to cool the midlevels on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, friedmators said: The RAP and NAM are worlds apart tomorrow early afternoon @ 925 How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Metasequoia said: How so? Everyone is above freezing east of the PA/NJ border on the RAP and on the NAM everyone is below freezing including most of LI. The low is much closer. We need to cool the mid-levels while we have the dynamics for the heavier precip to help cool the BL. Basically we need the CCB on top while everything is below 0 @ 850 and above. NAM vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: Everyone is above freezing east of the PA/NJ border on the RAP and on the NAM everyone is below freezing including most of LI. The low is much closer. We need to cool the mid-levels while we have the dynamics for the heavier precip to help cool the BL. Basically we need the CCB on top while everything is below 0 @ 850 and above. NAM vs the world. Thanks. RAP sucks, but I need to see more support for NAM's solution until I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Everyone is above freezing east of the PA/NJ border on the RAP and on the NAM everyone is below freezing including most of LI. The low is much closer. We need to cool the mid-levels while we have the dynamics for the heavier precip to help cool the BL. Basically we need the CCB on top while everything is below 0 @ 850 and above. NAM vs the world. Great post! The writing is on the wall with this one, has been for awhile now. The new RGEM is a rainstorm, the HRRRX doesn’t even turn me over to snow through 36 hours, when it’s all over and I’m 35 miles NW of NYC. Upton may actually be too generous showing Rockland at 2 inches. Trace to maybe 1” is more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: The board was doing great today until you appeared. You should change your name to rainman19. Sorry mods this dude is annoying He knows that. Just gotta ignore him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Great post! The writing is on the wall with this one, has been for awhile now. The new RGEM is a rainstorm, the HRRRX doesn’t even turn me over to snow through 36 hours, when it’s all over and I’m 35 miles NW of NYC. Upton may actually be too generous showing Rockland at 2 inches. Trace to maybe 1” is more like it I don't know the RAP at the end of its cycle though. Is it like the 384hr GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I guess my expectation where I am is for maybe a slushy inch (that would also go for the city). That’s taking the average of the model guidance-NAM would have more but the rest are practically nothing. It’ll depend on the radar and how fast the layers cool. If the radar is showery or the best CCB sets up over NJ, I might not accumulate at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, friedmators said: I don't know the RAP at the end of its cycle though. Is it like the 384hr GFS? That’s correct, I also think it sucks for thermals. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18z GFS looks good, similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I guess my expectation where I am is for maybe a slushy inch (that would also go for the city). That’s taking the average of the model guidance-NAM would have more but the rest are practically nothing. It’ll depend on the radar and how fast the layers cool. If the radar is showery or the best CCB sets up over NJ, I might not accumulate at all. agreed -slushy inch or less over NYC and most areas south of 78 in NJ - ground is going to be so soaked with temps staying several degrees above freezing makes any snow that falls difficult to stick to the ground if the temp manages to get down below 35 may stick more easily to power lines and tree branches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS looks good, similar to the Euro. H5 VV's are through the roof so hopefully 925 cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Really getting the shaft here locally by NWS, with just a wind advisory, flood watch and no winter weather bulletins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: H5 VV's are through the roof so hopefully 925 cools off. It's currently 58 degrees here, so it's going to take a while to cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Really getting the shaft here locally by NWS, with just a wind advisory, flood watch and no winter weather bulletins. If there was a reason to issue them they would have and if things change they will - right now no reason to issue anything more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, snywx said: Upton went with a warning for Orange.. 4-7" w/ 10"+ above 800' I like 10 to max 20 at my house if I get into the ccb and it dumps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: If there was a reason to issue them they would have and if things change they will - right now no reason to issue anything more To be fair though, they usually split Bergen County in these cases. Where I live is on the edge of the hills and it can sometimes be night and day between here and the Meadowlands no more than 15-20 miles to my Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm going to be very interested to see what the 00z models show as these will have the hurricane hunter date ingested in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 One thing for sure, it should be ripping tomorrow morning as the CCB takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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