MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Central NJ gets over 6 inches on the Nam 2-5 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, lovewinter said: I usually just lurk, but want to make sure I'm understanding correctly...crazy winds everywhere, correct, not just the coast? I'm in Montague NJ (by High Point), but only about 700 ft. (Trying to decide if we should get the generator out or not.) The winds are even stronger the higher the elevation. For example 925mb is around 2600 feet above sea level. So your elevation means you're closer to the stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Banter but,...this site is quiet for what could be one of the biggest storms of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Banter but,...this site is quiet for what could be one of the biggest storms of the season... Some of us have to work around here! (j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Banter but,...this site is quiet for what could be one of the biggest storms of the season... Possibly bc there's a lot of uncertainty so some are being gun shy (don't blame them at all). Also could be bc some people being rude to posters for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Some of us have to work around here! (j/k) That too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RAP has 850s below zero and 925 warm while the NAM has 850s warm and 925 below zero. So we take the RAP at 850 and the NAM at 925 and we paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3k Nam snowmap I just saw has around 2 inches for NYC and alot more in LI and central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 My final call is going to be 2-4" for Central Park, LGA and ISP. 1-3" for JFK and points East, with a coating on the East end of Long Island. I like 3-6" for HPN, 12-16" for SWF, 4-8" for MMU and 3-5" for EWR. South of Rt 78 I like 1-3" except for interior Central NJ where I can see locally up to 5" I also think the higher elevations of Western Passaic County, Sussex County receive 8-12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovewinter Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The winds are even stronger the higher the elevation. For example 925mb is around 2600 feet above sea level. So you're elevation means you're closer to the stronger winds. Riiiight...that makes sense. Thank you for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird It took localized heavier sim radar echoes and counted it as snow. Easy to see on tropicaltidbits ptype/radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: LI and NJ will get more than NYC Bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Taylor Warwick said: Upgraded to High Wind Warning for So. Central NJ Only a wind advisory here, bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Mt.Holly and Upton have downgraded some portions of the previous High Wind Watch area to Wind Advisories. I am now under a High Wind Warning here but Union Co. just to my north is now under a Wind Advisory for wind gusts to 55 mph and 60 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still has that mega-swath in the LHV and Northern NJ. Fresh from Mount Holly. They are going with 800ft.+ for the higher accumulations, at least in my area. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches at higher elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less in the valleys are expected. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In Pennsylvania, Northampton county. * WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high- elevation ridges around midday Friday and then closer to mid afternoon in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times Friday afternoon and evening with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible. The snow is expected to end from west to east overnight. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute on Friday. The combination of strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions with visibilities below one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature of the snow and strong winds will likely cause damage to trees and power lines that will lead to scattered power outages, especially at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LI and NJ will get more than NYC Bank on it WHo gets the most will depend on where banding sets up and can cool most efficiently. I’d rather it mostly fall at night and the ground be colder, but heavy enough rates can overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird I wouldn’t touch the 3K. The 12Km has been on fire this winter. The 18Z run though was worlds different than the 12 and mostly rain in the metro so I’m not sure it can be trusted either making that sort of wild swing in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: Possibly bc there's a lot of uncertainty so some are being gun shy (don't blame them at all). Also could be bc some people being rude to posters for no reason. exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LI and NJ will get more than NYC Bank on it Seems difficult to judge where intense banding will set up until we're closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Seems difficult to judge where intense banding will set up until we're closer to the event. Not the Bronx it usually is higher than all boroughs. Especially Riverdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Still has that mega-swath in the LHV and Northern NJ. Fresh from Mount Holly. They are going with 800ft.+ for the higher accumulations, at least in my area. Upton went with a warning for Orange.. 4-7" w/ 10"+ above 800' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Taylor Warwick said: Exactly. Everyone at school asks me what is going on with this storm. All they care about is temperature. So they say if it's over 32, it won't snow. But, a few weeks ago, it was about 38 where I was, and It snowed so hard the roads were covered in about 15 minutes. You want to look at H85 (850mb) temps. A general rule of thumb is that when h85 is below freezing and surface temps are close to freezing, this will allow for the column to cool. What is happening is that the frozen precip is falling into the warmer temperatures and melting. As this happens, it will cool the atmosphere because the melting of the precip requires energy and this energy is pulled from the atmosphere. As this energy is pulled, the air around it subsequently cools. As long as the dew point and surface temperatures are apart (in other words, the column is not fully saturated), then the column can continue to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 42 minutes ago, Rjay said: That too I'm working...stealth mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like the 18z RGEM is coming in colder for the NW burbs. I believe that's heavy snow in Northern NJ and points North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Current radar trends line up better with the NAM, and still underdone. Yes , current radar is already showing more precip than both NAM and GFS are projecting. Expect an even stronger solution at 0z once hurricane hunter data is inputted. Their both being silly for not including a larger area with WWA and WSW’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The RAP and NAM are worlds apart tomorrow early afternoon @ 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 People are still chasing mirages. Nothing has changed with this storm. A rain event with a minor swipe of wet snow at the end. My forecast hasn’t changed in days, Trace to 1 inch up by me, nothing for the city. The models are getting warmer, less snow. The NAM is overdone nonsense as usual and it’s coming back to reality now, at 18z, way less impressive for snow and that will continue with the subsequent runs, the new 18z RGEM is mostly all rain, very little snow even for Orange County. Upton just realeased their update, all rain for the city, 1-2 inches up by me (Rockland), more for elevated areas of Orange County on north. No winter advisories, warnings, watches or statements for anyone in Upton’s area except Orange and Putnam and rightfully so. This has always been a dynamically cooled, elevated driven event, exclusively for upstate/north. No cold anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like it goes vertical before we have a chance to cool the midlevels on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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