tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hey, just a quick question, what websites can I see these model runs? Right now, I use weather.cod.edu and tropicaltidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: Its like a cute lil middlesex country screw zone at 850 haha...925s are cold..maybe sleet Temperature profiles are wrong, ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Finally ends around midnight Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: But It's significantly warmer man, I get it getting ravaged by the CCB but winds are absolutely ripping off the bathtub. It could happen this way. Nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovewinter Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I usually just lurk, but want to make sure I'm understanding correctly...crazy winds everywhere, correct, not just the coast? I'm in Montague NJ (by High Point), but only about 700 ft. (Trying to decide if we should get the generator out or not.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Taylor Warwick said: Hey, just a quick question, what websites can I see these model runs? Right now, I use weather.cod.edu and tropicaltidbits Tropicaltidbits is a good free site. Pivotalweather is another. Pay sites are weatherbell, stormvista and wx.graphics (or whatever it is now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Central NJ gets over 6 inches on the Nam 2-5 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, lovewinter said: I usually just lurk, but want to make sure I'm understanding correctly...crazy winds everywhere, correct, not just the coast? I'm in Montague NJ (by High Point), but only about 700 ft. (Trying to decide if we should get the generator out or not.) The winds are even stronger the higher the elevation. For example 925mb is around 2600 feet above sea level. So your elevation means you're closer to the stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Tropicaltidbits is a good free site. Pivotalweather is another. Pay sites are weatherbell, stormvista and wx.graphics (or whatever it is now). Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Banter but,...this site is quiet for what could be one of the biggest storms of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Banter but,...this site is quiet for what could be one of the biggest storms of the season... Some of us have to work around here! (j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Banter but,...this site is quiet for what could be one of the biggest storms of the season... Possibly bc there's a lot of uncertainty so some are being gun shy (don't blame them at all). Also could be bc some people being rude to posters for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Some of us have to work around here! (j/k) That too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RAP has 850s below zero and 925 warm while the NAM has 850s warm and 925 below zero. So we take the RAP at 850 and the NAM at 925 and we paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Compared to the 12z run, the NAM lookes to have lowered snow totals for the majority of the Northeast. Looks like the precip will shut off earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3k Nam snowmap I just saw has around 2 inches for NYC and alot more in LI and central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 My final call is going to be 2-4" for Central Park, LGA and ISP. 1-3" for JFK and points East, with a coating on the East end of Long Island. I like 3-6" for HPN, 12-16" for SWF, 4-8" for MMU and 3-5" for EWR. South of Rt 78 I like 1-3" except for interior Central NJ where I can see locally up to 5" I also think the higher elevations of Western Passaic County, Sussex County receive 8-12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Upgraded to High Wind Warning for So. Central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovewinter Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The winds are even stronger the higher the elevation. For example 925mb is around 2600 feet above sea level. So you're elevation means you're closer to the stronger winds. Riiiight...that makes sense. Thank you for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I can't wait to see the GOES East imagery of this thing tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird It took localized heavier sim radar echoes and counted it as snow. Easy to see on tropicaltidbits ptype/radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: LI and NJ will get more than NYC Bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Taylor Warwick said: Upgraded to High Wind Warning for So. Central NJ Only a wind advisory here, bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Mt.Holly and Upton have downgraded some portions of the previous High Wind Watch area to Wind Advisories. I am now under a High Wind Warning here but Union Co. just to my north is now under a Wind Advisory for wind gusts to 55 mph and 60 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still has that mega-swath in the LHV and Northern NJ. Fresh from Mount Holly. They are going with 800ft.+ for the higher accumulations, at least in my area. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches at higher elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less in the valleys are expected. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In Pennsylvania, Northampton county. * WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high- elevation ridges around midday Friday and then closer to mid afternoon in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times Friday afternoon and evening with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible. The snow is expected to end from west to east overnight. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute on Friday. The combination of strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions with visibilities below one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature of the snow and strong winds will likely cause damage to trees and power lines that will lead to scattered power outages, especially at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LI and NJ will get more than NYC Bank on it WHo gets the most will depend on where banding sets up and can cool most efficiently. I’d rather it mostly fall at night and the ground be colder, but heavy enough rates can overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map 3k Nam The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC Very weird I wouldn’t touch the 3K. The 12Km has been on fire this winter. The 18Z run though was worlds different than the 12 and mostly rain in the metro so I’m not sure it can be trusted either making that sort of wild swing in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: Possibly bc there's a lot of uncertainty so some are being gun shy (don't blame them at all). Also could be bc some people being rude to posters for no reason. exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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