USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It seems like every model is over doing the surface temps except the nam...what are the chances that's the case? Actually, with regards to surface temps, this is a very distinct possibility. I have seen many times when the thermals of the NAM are much more realistic than any other model. In fact, I have even seen where the NAM is the coldest and it is overdone as well. Now, there is no real high pressure to speak of, so everything comes down to CCB and dynamics, however, I would trust NAMs temperatures at this point. Also, begin to look at other short term hi res models as well. Lastly, the fact that the 3 KM NAM was even colder points to the fact that I believe Long Island will also see decent snows out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I mean the gfs can't even figure out how to saturated the bl. How do you even use it for thermals in this type of situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: 6"+. Probably 10"+. And if you're in an elevation above 800' in your county, there could be a lot more than that. Yes. I'm a little over 1200' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Thinking of headed to my Liberty NY home to ride this out; what would be the odds of Lynbrook here on western LI getting more than Liberty in the Catskills ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Yes. I'm a little over 1200' Lucky you. You're probably going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Boy Upton is really hedging their bets for east of the Hudson aren't they. Apparently I'm expected to get less than 1" of snow and this is predominantly a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Thinking of headed to my Liberty NY home to ride this out; what would be the odds of Lynbrook here on western LI getting more than Liberty in the Catskills ? 1000000 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Boy Upton is really hedging their bets for east of the Hudson aren't they. Apparently I'm expected to get less than 1" of snow and this is predominantly a rainstorm. They could be right and that is what most of the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: 1000000 to 1 Something closer to infinity. If you like 2 foot blizzards then you will like liberty Ny tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hats off to anyone who has to make a forecast for NYC/eastern NJ/western LI tomorrow. Could be a slushy inch, could be 6. In these dynamic cooling situations, temps often drop off more than models show when the column is cooling, but hard to go against every model except the NAM showing practically no snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: Hats off to anyone who has to make a forecast for NYC/eastern NJ/western LI tomorrow. Could be a slushy inch, could be 6. In these dynamic cooling situations, temps often drop off more than models show when the column is cooling, but hard to go against every model except the NAM showing practically no snow here. I'm going to give it my best shot after I see the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On the NAM from Upton: The NAM, although an outlier wrt track, is more aggressive with the magnitude of cooling with the sys. Collaboration with WPC suggests the NAM historically overdoes the amount of cooling, so this output is not favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 If it does eventually change over to snow, It'll need to be at a high rate. That ground is still pretty warm. And for the low chance it does start to accumulate, that's when all the power outages will spread rapidly. NWS in Mt. Holly saying <25% of 1 or more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks the RAP wants to try and flip us in CNJ off the coast around 10AM-Noon. 925 goes negative and H7 has nice vertical velocities. Still lacking at H5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Significant issues with nowcasting..radar is much more enhanced with the wide band of precip currently over the mid-Atlantic and Virginia area....where both models nam and gfs have been bone dry with their 6 and 9 hour forecasts from 12z. All morning long southern and central VA have received a lot more precip than was projected. this could mean the transfer to the coast is and will be quicker. In fact both nam and gfs both show practically no precip should be over Virginia this afternoon.. also, 850’s will be below freezing for the whole area at around 5am Tom morning...this is what people should be concentrating on temp wise...not nitpicking where the surface 32 line will be..the atmosphere will be crashing below freezing after 7am. im expecting snow to be mixing in / changing here around midnight tonight. Maybe earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, sferic said: Thinking of headed to my Liberty NY home to ride this out; what would be the odds of Lynbrook here on western LI getting more than Liberty in the Catskills ? Sit atop wurtsboro or up by lake Muskoday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 51 minutes ago, tdp146 said: On the NAM from Upton: The NAM, although an outlier wrt track, is more aggressive with the magnitude of cooling with the sys. Collaboration with WPC suggests the NAM historically overdoes the amount of cooling, so this output is not favored. Following your quote, they also mention: However, thermal profile margins of around a degree or two arethe difference between hvy rain and hvy snow with this storm.With the track consensus consolidating, more snow was added tothe fcst for nwrn zones, particularly the higher elevations.Although the probability is low based on the 00z model databeing used, any downward trend in the thermal profile could leadto much more snowfall across the majority of the area. A strongcstl front should set up across sern CT and ern LI, so areas wof this boundary will be the ones to watch. (Upton, 2018) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Well the 18z NAM didn't disappoint, complete bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Complete ownage. That's 70mph+ just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Back to the look it had yesterday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well the 18z NAM didn't disappoint, complete bomb And torched 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Complete ownage. That's 70mph+ just above the surface. Pushing 80 knots just east of Boston. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The only downside to this run is that it closes off so fast that it peaks early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I guess some people never learn. But It's significantly warmer man, I get it getting ravaged by the CCB but winds are absolutely ripping off the bathtub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: But It's significantly warmer man, I get it getting ravaged by the CCB but winds are absolutely ripping off the bathtub. Why are you still looking at temps when every knowledgeable poster here has been saying for two days the models are too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Even if you want to take the NAM's temps verbatim, that's heavy snow in the city tomorrow early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Why are you still looking at temps when every knowledgeable poster here has been saying for two days the models are too warm? May be too warm, sure. But to get even warmer? Not ideal. I do think outside of eastern Suffolk, everyone sees some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 And because of the stall, the system spins Friday night still dumping as it slowly weakens, changing over even LI to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: May be too warm, sure. But to get even warmer? Not ideal. I do think outside of eastern Suffolk, everyone sees some snow. Maybe if I lived out on Long Island I wouldn't be as optimistic, but the models are too warm. No way you're going to get all rain when you have a sub 975mb low parked near 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Its like a cute lil middlesex country screw zone at 850 haha...925s are cold..maybe sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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