ag3 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 EURO CCB is east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: EURO CCB is east as well. East of....boston? Milwaukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro colder than 0z with the low stalling and pivoting just west of the benchmark CCB over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: EURO CCB is east as well. Dumb question - what does that mean overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The Euro is an absolute blue bomb, especially for the interior. Gets down to 970mb inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, North and West said: Dumb question - what does that mean overall? Let the run or the play by play finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 All of this is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is an absolute blue bomb, especially for the interior. Gets down to 970mb inside the benchmark. If that’s the case that’s historic. Definitly ups the chances of a coastal surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Look at the uptick in QPF - Trying to say this is East is just pure trolling. 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If that’s the case that’s historic. Definitly ups the chances of a coastal surprise Snowmaps barely show anything This storm needs to be watched closely. I have a feeling there are going to be tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 850 looks good but out problem may be at 925 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The globals are really keeping with the idea of a rather "warm" BL until you get well nw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The globals are really keeping with the idea of a rather "warm" BL until you get well nw of the city. I realize we are almost at now cast time but how reliable are globals at this time frame ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Snowmaps barely show anything This storm needs to be watched closely. I have a feeling there are going to be tricks. You disappoint me. You never learn. Still rely on snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I realize we are almost at now cast time but how reliable are globals at this time frame ? In this type of situation I would trust the Euro more than the other globals but this is a true nowcast if there ever was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: I realize we are almost at now cast time but how reliable are globals at this time frame ? The Euro not being cooler at the surface is a concern since it's hi-res like the NAM. The heavier precip with 850s below zero should be enough to cool things down to the surface, but maybe there's a 925mb warm layer remaining. That'll always muck it up. Too bad the Euro doesn't provide soundings (that I know of). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The strong north surface wind and upper air column cooling should cool the surface down more than the models are showing if it's precipitating heavily. If it's showery and generally light, then the lousy surface temps are understandable. But with the precip the Euro shows after 12z, I would think the surface would be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Euro not being cooler at the surface is a concern since it's hi-res like the NAM. The heavier precip with 850s below zero should be enough to cool things down to the surface, but maybe there's a 925mb warm layer remaining. That'll always muck it up. Too bad the Euro doesn't provide soundings (that I know of). The Euro is probably over doing the surface temps during the heavy precip but who knows at this point. It's a total toss up imo on what's going to happen from NENJ, NYC and western LI. As you move further northwest of the city you can count on increasingly larger totals (obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro is probably over doing the surface temps during the heavy precip but who knows at this point. It's a total toss up imo on what's going to happen from NENJ, NYC and western LI. As you move further northwest of the city you can count on increasingly larger totals (obviously). It seems like every model is over doing the surface temps except the nam...what are the chances that's the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 If we were using the modeled surface temps then nobody within 100 miles of NYC should expect snow. Obviously we know that's not the case. The models have consistently overdone BL temps since the start because this is a very complex and difficult setup. If those upper levels close off in the right place to put the area under the CCB, we will snow, heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It seems like every model is over doing the surface temps except the nam...what are the chances that's the case? Probably but again that's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Well, for the shore, I am concerned about the winds. Usually they overestimate it, but still, 20-30 with gusts around 50kts for 12 hours is not good. And, once this storm exits, another one weill be here by midweek. I am through with the snow. If only it was 70s like last week> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If we were using the modeled surface temps then nobody within 100 miles of NYC should expect snow. Obviously we know that's not the case. The models have consistently overdone BL temps since the start because this is a very complex and difficult setup. If those upper levels close off in the right place to put the area under the CCB, we will snow, heavily. This is why for coastal areas it’s a nowcastjng event. If everything comes together right ( and it’s threading the needle) the city could see 6 plus inches of snow . The interior is going to get buried, but like you said focus on the dynamics of this storm and we need for them to keep showing intense precip rates for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Taylor Warwick said: Well, for the shore, I am concerned about the winds. Usually they overestimate it, but still, 20-30 with gusts around 50kts for 12 hours is not good. And, once this storm exits, another one weill be here by midweek. I am through with the snow. If only it was 70s like last week> I'm glad you brought that up. For people along the coast the winds and coastal flooding should be the biggest issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Probably but again that's just my opinion. Im not a fan of this type of thinking usually, but most of the models struggled big time with the feb storm, none of them were even close to the accumulations in the northern and western parts of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, BxEngine said: Im not a fan of this type of thinking usually, but most of the models struggled big time with the feb storm, none of them were even close to the accumulations in the northern and western parts of the metro. And that was also right around the time of an anamously warm airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Right now I am using a blend of the Euro/NAM/RGEM for QPF and I am using the NAM almost exclusively for BL temps, which one could argue are still warmer than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Is there any sort of concensus what sort of accumulations will fall in my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Im not a fan of this type of thinking usually, but most of the models struggled big time with the feb storm, none of them were even close to the accumulations in the northern and western parts of the metro. Neither am I (I usually hate it) but this is a different situation with lots of dynamics at play. I just feel like the globals are unable to resolve this type of situation properly and will bust too high on bl temps when heavy precip is falling on a north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Is there any sort of concensus what sort of accumulations will fall in my area? 6"+. Probably 10"+. And if you're in an elevation above 800' in your county, there could be a lot more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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