-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, mike1984 said:

Agree. But wouldn’t the same apply if he calls for a an inch and 8 inches fall? That’s not great for his reputation either. 

Id think they call for what they think. That would be best for their reputation. 

Well somewhat, but that's why forecasters give ranges. In reality, if they forecast 2-4" in the city, nobody is going to notice or complain if 5-6" falls, just like a 1" snowfall would probably go unnoticed. 

It's very rare that you're going to forecast 1" and then have 8" fall, especially nowadays, but this is the type of storm where that could happen.

 

[NJwx85]

Canadian looks better

All this would likely be snow

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, mike1984 said:

Agree. But wouldn’t the same apply if he calls for a an inch and 8 inches fall? That’s not great for his reputation either. 

Id think they call for what they think. That would be best for their reputation. 

People generally understand if you have to up you snow amounts the closer in you get to the forecast time. That's why being more conservative pays. People think that you are hyping things too much if you go big and much less falls like Jan 15.

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

actually Channel 7 had 1-3 for the City and points south/east with 3-6" just outside the city to north and west... then 6-12 up in OC and so on.... which is not a bad forecast to go with at this point.

Lee Goldberg seems to be the only on air NYC met that has the guts to call for accumulating snow when NWS and the rest of the media are ultra conservative. He also is the only one that talks about potential snowstorms that are a week away. He has become by far the top NYC met.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Canadian looks better

All this would likely be snow

Agree

Colder than last run

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Lee Goldberg seems to be the only on air NYC met that has the guts to call for accumulating snow when NWS and the rest of the media are ultra conservative. He also is the only one that talks about potential snowstorms that are a week away. He has become by far the top NYC met.

This is exactly what I was thinking, even last night he was much more on top of this,,,,

[Dan76]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Lee Goldberg seems to be the only on air NYC met that has the guts to call for accumulating snow when NWS and the rest of the media are ultra conservative. He also is the only one that talks about potential snowstorms that are a week away. He has become by far the top NYC met.

The only one I watch

[MikeS]

What time does this look to get going?

[Rjay]

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NAM is 41/31 at NYC from 15Z and is still 40/28 at 21Z.  That is LOL worthy if moderate or heavy precipitation is falling

That's the type of stuff the GFS has shown for the past 24 hours.  Thats what I was referring to when I said the GFS is GFSing.

[hudsonvalley21]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No serious poster on here cares what forecasters are saying on tv or the internet. They have to play it conservative because they are giving a forecast for public consumption even though privately they are looking at the same models we are.

Dr. Postel on the weather channel was just talking about the energy at the upper levels and the dynamics along with the possibilities on Friday night. I know that this is not the vendor thread, just to say he has mentioned it.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Dr. Postel on the weather channel was just talking about the energy at the upper levels and the dynamics along with the possibilities on Friday night. I know that this is not the vendor thread, just to say he has mentioned it.

Yeah of course the experts on the weather channel are going to give you a bit more detail. The public forecasts are made for the general public, which only cares about how much snow they receive.

[jm1220]

It's really going to be a nowcast I think around the city and coastal areas, and watching how fast the column cools down and how much heavy precip there is around on Fri afternoon. The CCB precip on the NAM that makes it looks less impressive than it did yesterday, while other models still seem to have good snow coming through. The RGEM is cooler than it was yesterday, though still not enough. 

If I had to guess I'd say 2-3" for most around the city, but it could be more if there's solid heavy snow for several hours. Or it could be less if the precip is showery and it only really cools down to 34. It may not even completely go to snow in that case. CCBs are hard to predict. 

The slam-dunk looks to be up in the Catskills where most should be well over a foot, and may approach 2 feet. Frost Valley would be a great place to hang out for this storm. 

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, MikeS said:

What time does this look to get going?

I would say that Wayne should be changing over to snow by mid-morning.

[friedmators]

I live in Edison but Work in Warren. The few hundred feet might help out a lot. Tempted to take off but wanna see snow.


.

[North and West]

Is it time yet to ask what the forecast is for MMU?

[friedmators]

Is it time yet to ask what the forecast is for MMU?

Somewhere between all rain and 20” of snow


.

[North and West]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

Somewhere between all rain and 20” of snow


.

Perfect for preparation. Thank you.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, North and West said:

Is it time yet to ask what the forecast is for MMU?

My guess is 3"-6" of wet snow.

[Ace]

Does anyone have a good source for the UKMET? It seems like the 12z run looks pretty good for us with a good amount of precipitation after 12z tomorrow. Can't really determine how temperatures are though.

[USCG RS]

Not doubting you, but why do they play conservative? 
News loves extremes...so would think they’d be aggressive more than they are conservative. 
So if forecasters truly believe 3-6 is likely..they’re going to forecast a trace to an inch which is what many are?
Thats very careless by them, imo.
 
 

It is known as crying wolf syndrome. Essentially what happens is that if you cry wolf too many times, then no one will listen to you. This significantly impact ratings, as when a strong storm comes up the Eastern seaboard, no one is tuning into your news channel and they are looking for other media Outlets.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[ForestHillWx]

39 minutes ago, North and West said:

Perfect for preparation. Thank you.

Your near the airport right? Your elevation is 200-300' I would think. I'm at 800'. In some cases, I have driven up the hill from Gladstone to find it snowing at the homestead. 

Should be fun tomorrow considering the Courts will likely be open on a motion day...hope the plows keep up.

[NJwx85]

23 minutes ago, Ace said:

Does anyone have a good source for the UKMET? It seems like the 12z run looks pretty good for us with a good amount of precipitation after 12z tomorrow. Can't really determine how temperatures are though.

About 25mm of precip in NYC after 850’s go below freezing. That’s pretty solid.

[NJwx85]

Keep in mind the UKMET was too warm for the city for the last snow event.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It's really going to be a nowcast I think around the city and coastal areas, and watching how fast the column cools down and how much heavy precip there is around on Fri afternoon. The CCB precip on the NAM that makes it looks less impressive than it did yesterday, while other models still seem to have good snow coming through. The RGEM is cooler than it was yesterday, though still not enough. 

If I had to guess I'd say 2-3" for most around the city, but it could be more if there's solid heavy snow for several hours. Or it could be less if the precip is showery and it only really cools down to 34. It may not even completely go to snow in that case. CCBs are hard to predict. 

The slam-dunk looks to be up in the Catskills where most should be well over a foot, and may approach 2 feet. Frost Valley would be a great place to hang out for this storm. 

Gonna need really big snowshoes to head up Doubletop from FV.  That hill collects good snow in a bad winter.

 

Edit: FYI, Doubletop Mountain summit is 3860'.  I may need to head to the Catskills this weekend.

[ag3]

Ukmet has the coastal low CCB east:

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, ag3 said:

Ukmet has the coastal low CCB east:

That’s about where I expect it to be.  The UKMET has tended to be too far to the east on highly dynamic and bombed out lows.  We saw this with the early January storm.   That may be a good 75-100 Miles further west-northwest in the end 

[Kellyg]

A long time lurker here (obviously not a knowledgeable forecaster).  My apologies if this is a frowned upon IMBY type question, but my adult son drives a truck from Edison to central MA (then sometimes to NY and/or PA) and then back to Edison overnight.  He's normally back in Edison, NJ by around 8 AM - ish.  Am I correct in thinking the frozen precip probably won't really get going while he's on the road?  I'm guessing Friday night's run might be completely cancelled for him if this pans out.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Gonna need really big snowshoes to head up Doubletop from FV.  That hill collects good snow in a bad winter.

 

Edit: FYI, Doubletop Mountain summit is 3860'.  I may need to head to the Catskills this weekend.

Please do. And take lots of pics. They got absolutely slammed with 40”+ during March 10. I see this being no different.

i would watch out for tree damage in your area, especially evergreens. A north wind of that magnitude is rather unusual. Usually our damaging wind events are either NE or NW. your location near the sound will enhance the winds

i agree with Jm as usual. It’s all going to come down to rates in the ccb for the coast. If you get into 2”+ hour rates it will stick everywhere. Without those rates it’s a car topper. That’s why this is such a now cast event. Somone near the coast in good banding could pull surprising amounts!

[BxEngine]

6 minutes ago, Kellyg said:

A long time lurker here (obviously not a knowledgeable forecaster).  My apologies if this is a frowned upon IMBY type question, but my adult son drives a truck from Edison to central MA (then sometimes to NY and/or PA) and then back to Edison overnight.  He's normally back in Edison, NJ by around 8 AM - ish.  Am I correct in thinking the frozen precip probably won't really get going while he's on the road?  I'm guessing Friday night's run might be completely cancelled for him if this pans out.

Hes probably ok for tnite as it stands now, but keep an eye here this afternoon and evening as the short term hi res models are in better range. 

[Ace]

3 minutes ago, Kellyg said:

A long time lurker here (obviously not a knowledgeable forecaster).  My apologies if this is a frowned upon IMBY type question, but my adult son drives a truck from Edison to central MA (then sometimes to NY and/or PA) and then back to Edison overnight.  He's normally back in Edison, NJ by around 8 AM - ish.  Am I correct in thinking the frozen precip probably won't really get going while he's on the road?  I'm guessing Friday night's run might be completely cancelled for him if this pans out.

The coldest models seem to be targeting the mid morning timeframe as the period for the changeover in the northern/western areas. By the time that happens he should already be in Edison. He'll probably encounter a lot of rain though.