NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: So is the NAM verbatim sandy-esque power outages? I can't imagine 6" of 5-1 ratio snow and 60 mph winds leads to anything good. No, you're not going to have transformers blowing up every 30 seconds. Those winds gusted in excess of 90mph in places. Right now to me it looks similar to March 2010 in terms of wind potential. That storm saw numerous gusts over 50mph around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm in Poughkeepsie area and this is a tough call with thermal profiles. 12K nam dumps on me and NWS Albany going with 1-3 of slop. I have no idea how this is going to play out. It's a very close call. The GFS appears to be a warm outlier and it is being given weight right now. My guess is that 3"-6" with potential for even higher amounts is probably more likely than 1"-3" right now. Certainly, the 12z NAM didn't change that thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: No, you're not going to have transformers blowing up every 30 seconds. Those winds gusted in excess of 90mph in places. Right now to me it looks similar to March 2010 in terms of wind potential. That storm saw numerous gusts over 50mph around here. That sure was an exciting night. Generator + directv + dsl internet for the win that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 We are getting a hurricane hunter mission for this. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It's a very close call. The GFS appears to be a warm outlier and it is being given weight right now. My guess is that 3"-6" with potential for even higher amounts is probably more likely than 1"-3" right now. Certainly, the 12z NAM didn't change that thinking. Rgem is just as warm as the GFS. 12z run keeps even NWNJ all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Incredibly difficult forecast with NAM turning it into a significant snowstorm while RGEM says all rain. RGEM is a good model, so it's far from a lock that this turns into a heavy wet snowstorm. Anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, ag3 said: Rgem is just as warm as the GFS. 12z run keeps even NWNJ all rain. Just so there's no confusion, my 3"-6" figure was for Poughkeepsie, not New York City. While I expect the rain to end as a period of snow in and around the City, my guess is that any accumulations would be minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Incredibly difficult forecast with NAM turning it into a significant snowstorm while RGEM says all rain. RGEM is a good model, so it's far from a lock that this turns into a heavy wet snowstorm. Anything can happen. Nam > rgem for the 2/17 event. Nam has been good this winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Actually RGEM looked colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Actually RGEM looked colder than 6z. Thats what they said in NE forum too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Actually RGEM looked colder than 6z. 850s cool a lot faster than 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: 850s cool a lot faster than 6Z Maybe so but it does little good and time is running out. I do believe the RGEM is still too warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Maybe so but it does little good and time is running out. I do believe the RGEM is still too warm though. This is much more in line with the pro forecasts im seeing online and on tv. Much more likely this is the outcome then the NAM totals, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Maybe so but it does little good and time is running out. I do believe the RGEM is still too warm though. The RGEM shows what I just posted in the SNE forum that someone due west behind the 850-700/500 lows will get pounded while someone up NNE of them in the inflow ends up too far South and is dry slotted. There is potential here to see more snow in Paramus or New City than some location in eastern MASS. We saw this a bit on 12/25/02 when NYC was slammed while some areas in interior Connecticut saw nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Upper levels on the GFS are really improved on this run compared to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I don't care what the GFS is showing in terms of QPF or snowfall, when you see the 500mb winds strengthen like this overhead you're going to get a dynamic bomb which should change mostly everyone here over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is 41/31 at NYC from 15Z and is still 40/28 at 21Z. That is LOL worthy if moderate or heavy precipitation is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS never wants to crash the 540 line and seems to use it for rain/snow verbatim in a lot of places. H5 looks considerable better though. Agree with NJwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, mike1984 said: This is much more in line with the pro forecasts im seeing online and on tv. Much more likely this is the outcome then the NAM totals, imo. No serious poster on here cares what forecasters are saying on tv or the internet. They have to play it conservative because they are giving a forecast for public consumption even though privately they are looking at the same models we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No serious poster on here cares what forecasters are saying on tv or the internet. They have to play it conservative because they are giving a forecast for public consumption even though privately they are looking at the same models we are. actually Channel 7 had 1-3 for the City and points south/east with 3-6" just outside the city to north and west... then 6-12 up in OC and so on.... which is not a bad forecast to go with at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: No serious poster on here cares what forecasters are saying on tv or the internet. They have to play it conservative because they are giving a forecast for public consumption even though privately they are looking at the same models we are. Not doubting you, but why do they play conservative? News loves extremes...so would think they’d be aggressive more than they are conservative. So if forecasters truly believe 3-6 is likely..they’re going to forecast a trace to an inch which is what many are? Thats very careless by them, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: actually Channel 7 had 1-3 for the City and points south/east with 3-6" just outside the city to north and west... then 6-12 up in OC and so on.... which is not a bad forecast to go with at this point. That's still conservative depending on your run of choice. The far majority of tv/radio/online mets are going with far less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NAM is 41/31 at NYC from 15Z and is still 40/28 at 21Z. That is LOL worthy if moderate or heavy precipitation is falling I think you mean the GFS. NAM is between 33-35 at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: actually Channel 7 had 1-3 for the City and points south/east with 3-6" just outside the city to north and west... then 6-12 up in OC and so on.... which is not a bad forecast to go with at this point. Must have updated. Last I saw 3-6 was in extreme NNJ. Most of NYC and NNJ were in trace-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: I think you mean the GFS. NAM is between 33-35 at this time I was using the MOS numbers which seem to usually verify better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Not doubting you, but why do they play conservative? News loves extremes...so would think they’d be aggressive more than they are conservative. So if forecasters truly believe 3-6 is likely..they’re going to forecast a trace to an inch which is what many are? Thats very careless by them, imo. Because it's a very difficult forecast and they have been burned many times before. If a met comes on here and calls for 12" of snow and 2" falls it's not a big deal. If a met goes on TV and calls for 12" of snow and 2" falls then the public will hold a lynching and his reputation will be ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I will give a final forecast snow map sometime this afternoon, likely after the 18z NAM. But I am still leaning towards 2-4" in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Because it's a very difficult forecast and they have been burned many times before. If a met comes on here and calls for 12" of snow and 2" falls it's not a big deal. If a met goes on TV and calls for 12" of snow and 2" falls then the public will hold a lynching and his reputation will be ruined. Agree. But wouldn’t the same apply if he calls for a an inch and 8 inches fall? That’s not great for his reputation either. Id think they call for what they think. That would be best for their reputation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Must have updated. Last I saw 3-6 was in extreme NNJ. Most of NYC and NNJ were in trace-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RAP looks pretty sexy at the long range for H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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